Monday, December 16, 2013

SoCal Not Immune to Interest Rates

Southland Home Sales Drop; Median Sale Price Edges Sideways - Again 

via DQNews

Sales Volume Median Price
All homes Nov-12 Nov-13 %Chng Nov-12 Nov-13 %Chng
Los Angeles 6,637 5,884 -11.30% $350,000 $424,500 21.30%
Orange 2,879 2,632 -8.60% $450,000 $560,000 24.40%
Riverside 3,274 2,934 -10.40% $229,000 $275,000 20.10%
San Bernardino 2,304 2,130 -7.60% $183,000 $218,500 19.40%
San Diego 3,371 3,018 -10.50% $358,000 $415,000 15.90%
Ventura 820 685 -16.50% $370,000 $445,000 20.30%
SoCal 19,285 17,283 -10.40% $321,000 $385,000 19.90%

What a difference a year can make.  Those 820 buyers in Ventura County last year are up $75,000 almost the median household income.  Except tax free.  They are middle of the pack for Southland gains.  I've stopped following the imputed increases of the dawghaus seeing as up 7x then down 3x then up 1x has been nothing but mental masturbation. 

What's the return?  That's easy to model theoretically.
Nov '12 buy $370,000 with 5% fees extraction and 1.3% taxes built in.
Sell Nov '13 $445,000 with 2% transaction costs.  Realize $436,000 - $370,000 for $66,000.
How much did you put down and pay?  Generously, 20% or $74,000.  P&I; $1500/mo or $18,000.
$48,000 left, living for free and a ROI of 70%.  Nice.  N.B.  For only one year there are tax consequences but for 2 years plus the $500k exemption applies.  W[h]inning.


Cinco-X said...

But according to CR, foreclosure resales are down too...

Cinco-X said...

Securing Liberty: The Purpose and Importance of the Bill of Rights By Joseph Postell, Ph.D.
National Bill of Rights Day customarily occupies a minor place on our calendars, if it occupies a place at all. ...It is an opportunity for us to reflect upon the purpose of those amendments as a whole, to step back and consider the crucial questions that our Founders confronted in considering the idea of amending the Constitution to include a bill of rights.
Implicit in the story surrounding our Bill of Rights is the proposition that the liberties of a nation can only be secured by citizens of firm conviction who understand our rights and liberties and will actively defend them.

Rob Dawg said...

"But according to CR, foreclosure resales are down too..."

Precisely why I felt the need to reactivate my blog. A few years ago I was blogging because no one else was. Then a few new faces showed up and did a better job and more importantly, without me doing the work. That lasted a while. The gap has opened again and I am forced to annoy yet again.

Foreclosure sales are a failure4 of the housing market. A few low percent are unavoidable; injury, illness, death, divorce, and such. What we still have are blindingly bad bank practice foreclosures.

Now for the bad part. Those bad decisions are going to lead to another round of foreclosures. Two reasons. First reticence to lend to viable customers. Second because they won't lend to viable buyers existing owners are going to get stuck as they age out, change jobs, normal move on.

Cinco-X said...

The truth about the deep web
Ironically, a story in Forbes last week describes Freenet – or a system very much like it – as the only possible hope and salvation for the future of the internet. The argument from Forbes, however, has nothing to do with censorship or the freedom of speech.
According to this article, one of the biggest problems that the internet will face in upcoming decades is the problem of scalability. Because the internet is not distributed, it must rely on ever-increasing power and efficiency in a small set of central data centres and servers to support the entire infrastructure.
The solution? Radically change the way that the internet works, so that instead of relying on a small set of datacentres through which most information is passed, it acts as a truly distributed, peer-to-peer network. The article cites a project called Pursuit Internet, funded by the European Union, which has been taking steps in this direction. They are described as having achieved a “proof of concept”.
Freenet, of course, has been doing this since 2000.

Much more difficult for the NSA to "sniff" a distributed peer-to-peer network lacking central, promiscuous nodes...