Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Fragile Markets

All Ford did was issue lower profit guidance.  Instant market drop stock price of nearly 9%.  Back up a few percent since but if it can happen to a good company with an expected announcement then it isn't about the company or the economy but the stock markets.

That said pay no attention to the bond market pre-positioning.  Up, down or yawn it is nothing but asymmetric trades. 

From GeoPolitical Monitor:
Strong momentum and near-zero central bank rates may see the stock market rally continue into 2014, but without an active consumer the longer-term picture is not so optimistic. While the US unemployment rate has declined to 7%, much of the job creation has been in low income roles, and the rate is enhanced by a fall in labor force participation to its lowest level since 1978. Notably, real median wages (adjusted for inflation) have fallen just over 3% since the start of 2009. 


ZIRP is going away and low tier employment doesn't leave money for investment.  Could be ugly.  I recently checked up on the RRE & CRE REITs.  P/E ratios are eyepopping. 

1 comment:

bjdubbs said...

If cars now last for 400,000 miles, and each manufacturer is backed by a national gov't, and Chrysler still exists and will never die, I don't see how anybody makes money selling cars. Ever.