Housing Bubble, credit bubble, public planning, land use, zoning and transportation in the exurban environment. Specific criticism of smart growth, neotradtional, forms based, new urbanism and other top down planner schemes to increase urban extent and density. Ventura County, California specific examples.
Tuesday, January 09, 2007
Housing Dada Mixed
This is the froth I warned about. Prices both wishing and selling are going to be all over the place. The large and dynamic inventory will make for a cloudy market. The small number of sales will increasingly include exceptions rather than regular sales closings. The shift to buyers market will leave some sellers unable to cope and thus escrows will be messy. Buyers will increasingly dictate terms; fast close, slow close, etc. In math we call this sparse matrix analysis. I haven't done it but it looks like 5-6 dimensions about 5% populated. Don't sweat the math or try to visualize 5 dimensions. The point is that depending on how you look at it you can detect many patterns. Look at this picture for an example:
The analog of a cresting wave goes quite far. No more rising tide, the wave crests, froth. The biggest wave at the end of an unusually high tide leaves little fishies washed up on the beach and as the tide recedes we see who was swimming naked. It won't be a pretty sight but it won't be a tsunami either although I don't put it past our great leaders to possibly make things worse.
January 9th, 2007 | Robert Coté
Labels:
Housing
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
1 comment:
I guess I'm a nerd. The "sparse matrix" stuff is pretty funny. I might have LOL on that one.
Post a Comment