Sorry to be so "econometric" this last week but that's where the stories have been. This coming week promises to get back on track with some juicy land use/planning/transportation tidbits. The recent financial turmoil is actually responsible for the impending rash of exurban problems long festering finally being discussed. There's a war about to break out that no one has any clue could even exist. Civil servants are massively overpaid and their positions are massively overmanned and to near an employee they'll swear the exact opposite. Now they are in for an interesting discovery; their pensions are not really pensions, they are a combination of vested assets and claims on future tax revenues.
But first we need to see why there will be a revenue crunch at the municipal level. Here is yesterday's and last six months of the RLX:
Consumer spending is 2/3rds of GDP, municipalities are not only seeing late property taxes but should be planning for drastically lower business and sales tax revenues. Another perfect storm is brewing and the current one hasn't even made landfall.
151 comments:
Guess we will start to see an increase in tax liens / foreclosures.
First & Murst
You know, just because we only have a few more Caseybitz™ to reveal doesn't mean I've stopped tying multiple subjects together. Remember the Certificates of Participation from a few threads back? The big financials had those bridge loans to carry their deals and as explained at CalculatedRisk they've turned into pier loans, bridges to nowhere. COPs used to be dirt cheap. Soon they will be unsecured debt instruments for organizations with cash flow problems no way to reduce expenses and excessive exposure to bad news.
Rob, is it your considered opinion that the fed will not inject hundreds of billion$ this time, as they have so many times in the past? Frankly, I fully expect a trillion dollar last minute bailout, in fact, I would bet everything on it.
Edgar, I just don't think things are going to get bad to the point that the Fed will intervene. It is going to be bad for people in RE jobs, construction and related areas. Some hedge funds are going to be vaporized .
It is my strong opinion that the Fed will continue to allow hundreds of billions of synthetic dollars to be created out of thin air as tracked by the M3 shadow statistic. The Fed -cannot- "open the window" because asset volitility is beyond its control in the necessary time frame.
I think I know your equally well respected position that they can cut and print and export much of the pain and all that happens is the Chicomms are screwed for as long as they peg to a dollar range. Not this time.
Shifting slightly, the other problem with a liquidity injection is the likelihood that the money will be poured into the sand and -really- scare the rubes. Or almost as bad the financials tasked with using the trillion will instead fix up theor own balance shhets and thus have no greater impact. No matter what happens to the trillion this will cement another generation of inflation expectations. Tightrope Ben was refreshingly honest that the Fed is more concerned with a perception of inflation than of inflation itself. I'm an idiot for holding an internal barometer that reads 7% when the real world is telling me 2.4% right?
...Shifting slightly, the other problem with a liquidity injection is the likelihood that the money will be poured into the sand and -really- scare the rubes. Or almost as bad the financials tasked with using the trillion will instead fix up theor own balance shhets and thus have no greater impact...
1) Of course the money will be poured into the sand, just like the last trillion.
2) That is exactly what they want the money for, to fix their balance sheets. In light of their all important job of ripping people off, both foreign and domestic, they will be compensated.
3) They might throw BSC and MER to the wolves but the rest are still in good standing with the boyz club.
4) Nothing wrong with your barometer. It sounds like your B.S. detector has a new battery as well.
Edgar out.
This is wierd. I'm so used to being the odd man out at these kinds of parties I am not used to being believed nevermind actually complimented.
Yeah, Edgar. I know there is a too big to fail policy and every single one of those bastards is still going to get a Christmas bonus when they should be giving back the last one.
Let's take a moment to feel thankful for the innovative nature of the American economy.
Igniting the trend are consumers like Mr. Friedman, who may seem like the finicky protagonist of Dr. Seuss’s “Green Eggs and Ham,” but who is just your average multitasking, high-speed wireless American.
Now each weekday morning he places an online order with Lenny’s. Soon an iced coffee and an Atkin’s Special (egg whites, turkey, onion, tomato, roasted red pepper) are made to his typed specifications and delivered to the reception desk.
“I’m saving time,” said Mr. Friedman, who orders breakfast and lunch online. “I’m so adept at it now that I can actually do business on the phone while I’m placing my food order.”
Another useless factoid to save in your mindbasket: "Pizza is the nation’s most delivered food."
Soon to be most delivered foods:
Senior Vittles and govt surplus cheese.
RD - love the blog. enjoy the macro themed entries more than serin entries. How do you feel the coming retirements of baby boomers in Muni and federal positions will affect total expenditures for the govt? Replacing high job grade pay scale ees with brand new low grade ees will be a pretty big reduction. Tinfoil hat warning: If the retirement benefits get too expensive, the govt could 'liquidate' them in old age. It's what GM should have done years ago.
I enjoyed your comment on "The Big Picture" comment board refuting/laughing at a few of the 1-20 reasons to derail the economy. Those posters seem to always be bearish regardless of any information. Witht he consistent "we don't produce anything" mantra, I always want to point to export growth of the last 10 years.
There clearly is no surplus unless we want to play fantasy games.
Rob Dawg,
This civil servant is massively underpaid so I assume you're trolling with the f-ing post.
@ Edgar,
The Fed will not save the dollar, imo, and they will print money to lighten the Fed Debt service, with the result either a hold or a decrease in interest, I reckon.
Now we wait and watch.
PS, They will inflate grain and oil. Both with regard to the Energy Sector, the next bubble, as inflate the MUST.
PSS, I am conducting myself as if there will be no SS retirement Fund, nothing new to Edgar.
Given the Goddamn Mother Fucking Bush Admin, who the HELL do you think manages to hold this country together? IT AIN'T GM. IT AIN'T EXXON MOBILE!
FMW,
I've recently had a weird thought that you and Edgar were the same person...Is that off base? I suspect so.
@ Akubi,
Who? Us hamsters?
*********************************
who the HELL do you think manages to hold this country together
You're a hamster enthusiast too?
Anyway, the entire f-ing govt isn't fucked, but it SURE IS HARD to get shit down these days. Hopefully it will get better, but we're stuck with the Iraq debacle for many, many years.
@ Akubi,
No, thats pretty funny, He and I go waaaay back (Oct 85) on blogger and kinda hang out on the same boards.
I'm the nice one (chick), he is the funny one.
We have been though a couple of flame wars together, Texas Chick AKA Toxic Chick (had his back)and Greg Swan, (he came to my rescue), along with some some verbal jousting with clueless real estate clerk trolls, so fun.
I remember some of it via Housing Panic...
@ Akubi,
Yep, I think you loathe Bush even more than Edgar, aka Buzz, aka, Mort,
ps, he knows all of my past handles too.
he he
Oh ya, and I agree with you, also.
Next 'grain' inflation bubble in the energy markets will make food really expensive, look out and get ready.
October 85?
So corporations print their own money now, like the government has been doing all along. In fact, very little currency is produced by the government anymore, and how you cannot call our mesh of electronic banking a private economy, I do not know. Some corporations exceed the GDP of many countries, so if they want to paper over their debt, why not.
But explain to me why government should be more like how private enterprise.
Oh, you were there? Cool!!!!!
Loved HP back in the day, now it is pretty commercial.
I was Infidel Woman, or Trailer Park Refugee, or toomuchtimeonmyhands.
Cote' Alpha Dawg is an HP refugee also!
We still hand out with Richard too. His blog is really fun and VERY interesting, if you do not get depressed easily.
(-:
RD - love the blog. enjoy the macro themed entries more than serin entries.
Thanks. so do I, so do I.
How do you feel the coming retirements of baby boomers in Muni and federal positions will affect total expenditures for the govt? Replacing high job grade pay scale ees with brand new low grade ees will be a pretty big reduction.
You correctly predict most of my position but not all. Tiers will help in the future, say 10-15 years from now but not now. There is a los of corporate culture personell drain coming that will cripple any major muni over the next decade. OMG, an exurbanist tie-in. Let's face it. Running and staffing a city of 60k isn't rocket science. They are going to get the cenurban refugees as high level muni employees double dip and escape anyway.
Tinfoil hat warning: If the retirement benefits get too expensive, the govt could 'liquidate' them in old age. It's what GM should have done years ago.
Unless I misunderstand, I disagree. They might try to liquidate them like in the 70s but those damn COLA provisions...
I enjoyed your comment on "The Big Picture" comment board refuting/laughing at a few of the 1-20 reasons to derail the economy.
Thanks very much. It takes a set of big ones to talk against a thread over there and I was concerned. I'm just glad the facts were on my side.
Those posters seem to always be bearish regardless of any information. With the consistent "we don't produce anything" mantra, I always want to point to export growth of the last 10 years.
I see your point. I'm a little (just a little mind you) less critical. This is a time to be bearish. Barry was massively off in calling next weeks' big sell off for LAST YEAR. Remember his Dow 6800 prediction? He'd rather you didn't.
Imagine our export growth if the US were actually paid for everything we've done the last 20 years. Microsoft products pirated alone could erase the current deficit. And don't get me started on those traitors Walmart who have been stealing and selling US mfg expertise all that time. We are an awesome but complacent people. A century of benign, unexercised superiority is currently being rewarded with resentment and misplaced vengance.
Oct 2005, sorry, too much beers and no glasses.
October 05 is when I found bubble blogging and HP. No other news about the Housing market run up that I was witnessing anywhere else. Googgled Housing Crash for a month and nothing. Then one day HP popped up and blogging sucked me in with the great thoughts and reading from great minds all over the world.
Love the posters, every one, even the tards.
@ Dawg,
yep.
Yeah, I've been hatin' on Bush for many years under various names - and simultaneously following other income sources to get by as a decidedly single individual - given my looser W-2 crap. I appreciated the humorous distraction provided by the IAFF and EN commenters...and hate to see it go.
Next 'grain' inflation bubble in the energy markets will make food really expensive, look out and get ready.
Tell that to my worthless corn futures. Oh, my kids are hungry too. No, seriously futures are small single digit money for any sane investor. The really sane investors don't do any futures.
Cote' Alpha Dawg is an HP refugee also!
I tried a few times. The problem at HP is the problem at HBB; everyone talks past one another now.
Corn is an entirely absurd source of ethanol. I blame f-ed up lobbyists!
The last bastion of a decent retirement, and Rob wants to ditch it. Are you serious? You should look at other wastes of taxpayer money, like the Defense Department, and Iraq. People are certinly not getting their money's worth, in bridges in Minnesota.
When the government is not providing a decent retirement, the government will be supporting the retirees directly. Who is going to care for these people, since the family stucture has been usurpted to provide flexible workers?
I think that we are in a race for the bottom. May you get served by a Indian customer service rep today, Rob.
EN is not going, only Casey went. He couldnot play with the grownups. Mort/Edgar and I are not leaving.
(-:
And, so, Akubi, what other names might I know you by?
;;smiles;;
Corn is an entirely absurd source of ethanol. I blame f-ed up lobbyists!
*********************
No effing sh!T. We will have energy, but we will starve!
They are using citrus in Florida's lake county for ethanol!
I do not like it, sam i am.
Wagga provided this sweet link
@ Dawg,
The fuel corn is subsidized by the guberment and they make more money planting it, so food grains are going un-planted to the tune of 25% this year, to be replace with the 'energy grains'.
Vodka and beer will be expensive, as will cereal.
See mongombo's latest rant.
Peace out.
Nice link Wagga!
Lost Cause,
You need to go back and read what I said for content. Oh and anytime you want to triple the Defense share of the budget like that peacemonger Kennedy had you can go ahead. All you need do is reduce all the things the Federal govt has expanded since then.
Sorry if I could not distinguish what you said, Rob, from the angry white male meme of the overpaid unproductive government employee with a parity retirement ready to bankrupt the keepers of the money presses.
@ Rob Dawg
"Liquidate" as in kill off. With all the conspiracy theories out there on econ message boards, I have been waiting for someone to suggest that GM will get out of their retirement health care and pension liabilities by eliminating retirees.
The 'we don't produce' mantra smells of mercantilism. I remind my dad and uncles who work in manufacturing that they don't exist in the eyes of half of the economists out there. Great point on pirating. While in easter Europe, I caught up on a lot of CDs and computer software I had always wanted (CAD). I worry about our trade deficit/current acount deficit/savings rate, but I know a significant portion of our trade def is due to oil & raw materials imports. I also know my 20% 401k contribution isn't considered "savings". Not to mention that an Ipod that is developed, designed and has components manufactured in the USA, but is 'put together' in China counts for $300 of Chinese exports. Lots of fuzzy math in all sorts of stats.
The Big Picture recently posted a Kunstler essay, and the board had a chubby. It was a synergy of some intelligence and lots of pessimism. Keep posting, your commentary is insightful.
@FMW
The Fed will not save the dollar, imo, and they will print money to lighten the Fed Debt service, with the result either a hold or a decrease in interest, I reckon.
Print money, yes. Reduce interest rates, the fed can't. Irritating thing, deficit spending. If the interest rate on the treasury note is not high enough, no one will buy it. If you want foreigners (american's seem to have forgotten how to save) to buy the notes; you need them priced, in terms of rates, high enough to offset the increased money supply (from printing money). The other thing is that printing money is highly inflationary. Only way to reduce the effect is to raise rates. We've been here before ('70s).
@FMW
PS, They will inflate grain and oil. Both with regard to the Energy Sector, the next bubble, as inflate the MUST.
They can't control commodity prices, particularly now. Too many other countries as players in the commodity market. You try to manipulate the prices, they will detect it, let you run and then screw you. (ie: supporting prices, let you buy up the items, even helping by doing the same. Then when looks like it will peak, dump and short the F**K out of it.) They use the profits from riding your run-up to fund the short.
OK, I was distracted, but this "meme" is getting too funny to argue about!
@Akubi
This civil servant is massively underpaid so I assume you're trolling with the f-ing post.
Depends upon what part of the civil sector. What the civil sector loses in direct pay, they make up for it in benefits. Try the private sector. We pay for our retirement, health and dental. In civil sector, it is part of the pay package. Try pricing it out in before and after tax dollars.
@FMW
PSS, I am conducting myself as if there will be no SS retirement Fund, nothing new to Edgar.
Same here. SS is a Ponzi Scheme. Last one paying in is holding the bag.. and thereby screwed. Kind of like flipping RE too..
@BJ,
I've definitely done my time in the private sector as well - and didn't pay *nearly* as much out of pocket for health insurance (thanks to all of the POS retired Boomer's in da govt who will obviously also bankrupt social security in their stupid ass bliss of typical retardation).
@Rob Dawg
Tinfoil hat warning: If the retirement benefits get too expensive, the govt could 'liquidate' them in old age. It's what GM should have done years ago.
Unless I misunderstand, I disagree. They might try to liquidate them like in the 70s but those damn COLA provisions...
Declaration of Bankruptcy works wonders for these... Even threatening bankruptcy..
Imagine our export growth if the US were actually paid for everything we've done the last 20 years. Microsoft products pirated alone could erase the current deficit.
The amount of money lost to Microsoft is highly overstated. Usually the pirated items are used by people who could not afford them in the first place. The BSA (Business Software Alliance) has an agenda where they get to determine the legality of an item, and not the court systems. To stress the importance, they pull out numbers out of thin air, that are quite weak.
NOTE: To prevent China from building their own operating system, Microsoft bent over backwards so far as to reveal their source code to the Chinese government. The US government has not seen this source code (Microsoft will not allow it, and besides.. the fishing hook is set quite deep in the US govs mouth).
Ethanol from corn produces between 1.1 to 1.5 times the energy put into the process if you include distillers grain & every other conceivable benny, Sugar cane in Brazil produces as much as a 6-8 times the energy input. The high value reflects genetically-modified plant materials. Landed cost in the USA is less than $1.10 per gallon. Corn ethanol recieves a 51 cent subsidy, Imported ethanol includes a tariff.
I will cheerfully cross-reference & footnote you all to death if we want to open a topic.
@Akubi
Usually the health care costs are not shown on paystubs for civil. Where are you getting the numbers for civil health care coverage?
I agree there is a problem with SS, but it is not the baby boomers fault. It was a Ponzi Scheme from the get go. So long as more people enter paying from the bottom, the system works. When population growth tails off.. we have a problem. Do you also now see why the illegal alien debate has so many facets to it? Whole new group of people to pay into SS to keep it afloat, ignoring that when they retire.. they will also be drawing from it, and they will not have paid that much into it to offset their eventual costs (lower wages, entering the system in near middle age).
On the aspect of the BSA (Business Software Alliance) agenda, I present to you .
@BJ,
Yes, but given demographics the Ponzi Scheme was made very, very clear thanks to the selfish POS Boomers.
And George W. FUCKING BUSH is a boomer and they create f-ed up little monsters too in their selfish greed.
@Akubi
You might remember in the early days of EN, Dawg commented on the "greatest generational wealth transfer" in history.
@BJ
I see the little trash icon on your posting. Can I delete? I think you have busted HTML.
As a former latch-key kid, I'd like to re-quote JimBobJoeBobJim's passage from January 2007 (can be found on Caseypedia via 6 Degrees of Casey Serin):
At 9:48 AM, JimBobJoeBobJim said...
Sweet Deal(tm), this is going to be fun. Before I throw the gauntlet on this slapfight, I want to warn everybody that I was the 100 meter freestyle hissy-fit champion in high school.
Gen-X got screwed by:
Boomers.
We the latch-key kids of Boomers' first marriages were left at home while the Boomers fleeced the job market and raped the banking industries. We left school to high unemployment, high interest rates, and a cloudy future. And there are so many of you that by the time I'm 45, half of my paychck is going to pay for you Social Security.
Gen-X
Gen-X created the computer boom. You can say it was Bill Gates, but it was we, the disciples of the Atari2600, we who had AppleIIe's, who truly created the revolution. We had the chance to really change the world, and we blew it. Maybe we can burn the Pets.Com sock puppet in effigy.
Gen-Y
Oh Gen-Y, where to begin. You are all beautiful, special little snowflakes, and no one can tell you different. You are spoiled little brats. Things have been so good for you for so long, you are not going to have any idea how to deal when things turn to shit, and mommy and daddy can't bail you out. And it's coming. I know, I know, I am a mean person, a "hater", for not presenting life as anything but rosy. Don't worry, you are all special, beautiful little snowflakes, and I want to kiss you all on your precious little heads. All I ask it that you don't cry to me when your H3 is repo'd when things go to hell.
End rant.
-jbjbj
It was a Ponzi Scheme from the get go.
Kinda sorta. Unfunded, yes. Subsidized, yes. What really happened is two things. First benefits were expanded (and by defintion contributors reduced). That was the big and real problem all along. The second is where all bow down to the great and powerful Dawg. The moment I say this it becomews obvious and everyone jumps onboard. SocSec works. It works so well the damn codgers are living longer. A lot longer. So much longer that my grandmother collected 30 years of ever increasing benefits that at the end every month the check was 3 times the sum total of all payments my grandfather ever contributed (total). Explains; he worked for Mr. Bell as his last job. You know, THE phone company. They were folded in and reliquified. Hmmm ... Auto industry anyone?
@Akubi
Yes, but given demographics the Ponzi Scheme was made very, very clear thanks to the selfish POS Boomers.
But the aspect of SS is not a fault of the Boomers. The population growth that they provided helped pay off the previous generation who was getting even better benefits (ie. even without paying into the system).
The Boomers lack of savings, and reliance on the recent run-up on Real Estate for retirement funding is going to create a whole rash of problems outside of SS.
@wagga I think the trash can is a problem of how the blogger software works. If you have a link with a terminating '/' in the path, the blogger software goes brain dead.
I suspect this is my post w/ the trash can (all of my posts show trashcan's for me..)
On the aspect of the BSA (Business Software Alliance) agenda, I present to you UCITA.
@Rob Dawg
The second is where all bow down to the great and powerful Dawg. The moment I say this it becomews obvious and everyone jumps onboard. SocSec works.... So much longer that my grandmother collected 30 years of ever increasing benefits that at the end every month the check was 3 times the sum total of all payments my grandfather ever contributed (total).
Sorry Dawg, gotta do better than that. The reason why it is possible to pull out more is because of the increase of population during that time combined with the fact that excess funds in SS are used to purchase special issue treasuries. 5% growth over 30 years ends up quadrupling the original sum. Of course this original sum was accumulated over time, thereby reducing the total return.
@Rob Dawg
That SS is subsidized is a misconception. It was originally subsidized during the depression, but it is currently unsubsidized. It was unfunded during the depression, but currently it is funded.
Presently, and in the past, the government has used SS like a big piggy bank (because there was a surplus as a result of the growing population (more participants paying in than retiring from the system)). Congress took out loans against SS using the special issue treasuries (SS admin would buy the special issue treasuries from the fed). The problem is that the return rate on the special issue treasuries is not that high, causing inflation to eat up a lot of the growth. This causes problems when there is time to pay out. With increasing retirees, it is hard to get the SS to buy the special issue treasuries to fund the deficit spending by Congress. A lot of Congress deficit spending has been historically hidden in the special issue treasuries that SS admin has been buying (effectively allowing Congress to borrow from SS funds).
Here is a bit more info of what I am saying.. oddly from the horses mouth..
@BJ,
Yeah, the SS formula was problematic (and founded by a concept of ethics and compassion); imagine (think John Lennon now) if all of the Boomers retiring on their laurels of bullshit were ethical and gave a rat's ass for the future (other than themselves) and did not accept their goddamned SS check.
Hey BOOMERS out there,
Show you care and aren't as full of shit as we assume.
imagine (think John Lennon now) if all of the Boomers retiring on their laurels of bullshit were ethical and gave a rat's ass for the future (other than themselves) and did not accept their goddamned SS check.
That may happen in one way or another, possibly by having the benefits reduced (Adjustment of the formula). My biggest gripe on the whole thing, is that the return on invested capital is so crappy (have stronger words here). Here are some 30 year return factors.
4% = 3.24x
5% = 4.32x
6% = 5.74x
7% = 7.61x
8% = 10.06x
A small difference in return, makes a big difference in the end result.
The other problem with SS is that its original mandate was not to be a full retirement for citizens. Through time, this mandate crept in (politician's promises?). In a way, it seems to have been used to increase the SS tax rate over time as well.
@Akubi
Hey BOOMERS out there,
Show you care and aren't as full of shit as we assume.
Sorry, they are having a toke.. and aren't inhaling.. so they are 6 sheets to the wind...
I am bringing up the return rate on special issue treasuries because Congress has been using Social Security Trust fund as an abnormally low cost loan. The cost of this is that interest received by the SS trust fund will not be sufficient to cover the drawdown on funds.
If Congress had to go to the open market with all of their treasuries, the interest rate that would have had to been paid on the debt would have been significantly higher. Yes, there is a benefit there, but the cost is in the amount of money available in SS.
The Dawg noted in this post that consumer spending is 2/3 of the GDP.
The largest economy on the planet is a circle jerk!
And there are no comments?
And there are no comments?
Booyah!
Hey BOOMERS out there,
Show you care and aren't as full of shit as we assume.
1) Stop quarreling amongst yourselves.
2) Remember November 5th.
The f-ing Boomers are the biggest consumers of BS in the universe as are the stupid ass children of their second marriage. Just as they once said, "never trust anyone over 30" I will not vote for a Boomer president.
Completely and totally off topic:
The Mooch™ is gone!
3 months ago I advertised for a person to help me with software testing and documentation in exchange for a nice suite & full house privileges.
Net result:
1) Not one byte of manual produced.
2) Never loaded the test software.
3) Said her cleaning duties satisfied the agreement. First cleaning lady ever to achieve $125 per hour.
She left with her rooms dirty. She left with all the doors in the suite unhinged. She complained that 7 cat toys were missing. (I have a kleptomog)
Anyhow, I have they keys back & itsallgood™
My last words:
It was real, it was good - but it wasn't real good.
Got a Boddingtons Pub Ale to celebrate the divorce.
And January next, she gets a 1099 for about $1700 of services rendered.
Is Boddingtons like Boddhisattvas sticking around to help us find the true path?
@BJ,
How shall we parse the Medicare disaster?
...A while back now, I penned a discussion questioning just what the baby boom generation was going to do for money/liquidity as they entered retirement years. The observation at the time in reviewing household balance sheets was that households held plenty of real estate and qualified plan assets (profit sharing, IRA, 401(k)), but very little in the way of cash. I questioned for how much longer would households, and especially the baby boomers, be able to continue leveraging up as retirement years for the boomers were fast approaching... [link]
Gee f-ing whiz, I should be buying sweet GPS collars for my dogs! I'm so behind the folks in the know. I should spend money!!!
Boddingtons contains a DraughtFlow™ System (Nitrogen Widget) which is purported to match an Old Blighty pub experience.
In terms of physics, it's close, in metaphysical terms, I (& nobody else on the planet) has a clue. By definition.
So the only worthwhile storm brewing is a beer...
@Akubi
In my college dorm (at a decidedly non-alcoholic institution) we brewed up a several carboys of booze. At about 3 am. one morning one burst and destroyed the wall between our dorm and the "preceptors" room. Took down the dunny, too.
@Akubi
How shall we parse the Medicare disaster?
Syntax error, core dump
But seriously, it is very hard to anticipate which way the politicians will jump on this, and which way things will go. Doesn't look good though.
There are good aspects of our medical system (vs Universal Health), most of the medical advances come out of the United States. Down side is that the cost really sucks. I also wouldn't want to be under the French healthcare system (knowingly giving people blood that had the potential of HIV because they didn't want the cost of tossing it. People can't sue the gov. healthcare there for malpractice either.). There are some aspects of exploitation, some by doctors wanting to do unnecessary procedures (any dentist recommend that you have veneers?), overly expensive medicine when a cheaper, equally effective is available (coumadin/warfarin vs aspirin which is also a blood thinner and does not have as many bad side effects), and there is the plain old people not taking care of themselves.
A co-worker of mine was in that last category until he got a scare from the doctor.. you have adult onset diabetes, and you must take care of it NOW! (gave the list of problems from diabetes including blindness). Looks like this person woke up... but time will tell.
NOTE: On Universal Health Care, what is the likelihood that people would take less care of themselves now if they knew it would all be taken care of by Universal Health Care? compare that to them knowing that they will have to pay for the results of their present lifestyle later... no one else will cover their tab...
@Edgar
From what I remember, the baby boom generation has very little in profit sharing, IRA and 401ks with the most of their assets tied up in Real Estate. This was also where they were 'leveraging up'.. because Real Estate allows you to use SweetLeverage™
@wagga,
Only thing I brewed per se was kombucha.
@BJ,
NOTE: On Universal Health Care, what is the likelihood that people would take less care of themselves now if they knew it would all be taken care of by Universal Health Care? compare that to them knowing that they will have to pay for the results of their present lifestyle later... no one else will cover their tab...
Outside more high income enclaves of this country, people are clearly not taking care of themselves.
Where's the Homer Simpson dude to remind us not to bother anyway?!
From what I remember, the baby boom generation has very little in profit sharing, IRA and 401ks with the most of their assets tied up in Real Estate. This was also where they were 'leveraging up'.. because Real Estate allows you to use SweetLeverage
And watch them suck the Social Security system dry. By the time I am eligible, there will be nothing left. And all the while, the Fed will keep devaluing my currency, pretty much ensuring that my golden years are going to suck. Makes me wonder why I bother saving anymore.
@Akubi
Outside more high income enclaves of this country, people are clearly not taking care of themselves.
This is one of the things I have found 'interesting'. It used to be that the poor had better diets than the rich. The poor were also more physically active. Cholic, gall stones, diabetes, obesity, etc were all diseases of the rich often caused by overindulgence in high calorie low nutrition fat laden food with little physical exercise. This has been turned on its head. The poor are now sedientary, having diets high in fat and refined sugar, while the more wealthy are physically active and eating a more balanced diet (Except for the noveu riche.. like Britany Spears.. who wants to know what they eat.. I don't!).
To maintain health, it doesn't take a whole lot of money. It does take getting off the couch and turning off the BoobTube. A good 30 minute brisk walk each day will help considerably. Choosing healthy foods over sweets is another. In fact, cooking food yourself is both cheaper and better than constantly going to fast food. A few posts ago, someone mentioned that when they were growing up, going to a fast food joint was a treat done rarely. Now, eating at a fast food joint for all meals is commonplace.
This brings to mind something I saw on KPBS a long time ago. The subject was the importance of computer literacy and how the lack of it and access to a computer in today's society can hold your children back. They were interviewing a poor black woman(not stereotyping here). This woman was complaining that because she was so poor, she could not afford a computer that would help her children. She went on and on about it, but I started to notice things in the background. A large screen TV, two laserdisk players, at least 1 VHS recorder and a DVD player.. all fairly recent. That, in itself demonstrated the real cause. Her focus was not on education, but on entertainment. This contrasts with a Vietnamese family I know from college, all kids were going to college. The eldest was helping the next in line and so-on. They did not have any entertainment equipment, but the first thing they did spend money on was a used second hand computer. By the way, there was no father (long story). Mom and kids were making a go at it and succeeded.
Like above with education vs entertainment, health is a choice. You don't have to have an expensive Gym membership to be healthy.
@Tom
And watch them suck the Social Security system dry. By the time I am eligible, there will be nothing left. And all the while, the Fed will keep devaluing my currency, pretty much ensuring that my golden years are going to suck. Makes me wonder why I bother saving anymore.
The Baby Boomers can't arbitrarily drain the Social Security system. The problem is how the system is set up to begin with. They were the burst in population that helped keep it funded for the previous generation. Their drawdown on Social Security is predetermined by the amount they contributed, adjusted for inflation (Its a formula). The Baby Boomer generations drawdown on Social Security will be less than the generation before (When adjusted for the amount they paid in Social Security Taxes). This also shows why increases in population/immigration are only a temporary fix for Social Security. It only delays the inevitable and makes it worse (like a wave.. more water piles up).
Where the Baby Boomers may hurt is in Medicaid. Recreational drugs do interesting things to ones health, and the Baby Boomers who 'partook', were not that physically active.. and never became. They liked the 'laid back' life style.
@ bj
...The other thing is that printing money is highly inflationary. Only way to reduce the effect is to raise rates. We've been here before ('70s)....
Have you? Wasn't the dollar de-linked from gold in the early 70's? Or is that gold bug urban myth? You can't do that twice.
My thoughts are that printing more money is the least worst way out of the problem. The trick will be balancing the extra money against the problems it causes, especially energy and wage inflation.
Boddingtons - Hey! Local (to me) brewery, only stopped producing the product here a year or two ago after being taken over by a multi-national drinks company.
Health - agreeing with bj here. There was an article over here in the last year or so which was saying that the baby-boomers and possible generation X-ers are healthier than the generation Y-ers who were estimated to have shorter predicted lifespans.
The question is, going back to the inflation / printing money option is what other effects does it have in the US and what can you do to protect yourself from them. I'm asking because I have some ideas and I think the world with have the same problems so it will affect me here as much as you over there.
Some serious allegations of Crisp and Cole:
http://bakersfieldbubble.blogspot.com
The question is, going back to the inflation / printing money option is what other effects does it have in the US and what can you do to protect yourself from them.
@ AW,
I asked my self that for a year, starting around last July, and it is why I left the Resort/tourism Industry (Although cheap Euros and Pounds Sterling will save them at Disney etc.), and got into OIL, three months ago. Yes, there is an oil company in Florida and I feel safe financially for the long term, and really good about what I am doing.
Sorry Akubi, no one will take care of me, but me, (I will not depend on the Government, they won't be there anyway), and I know as energy inflates, I will make money and have job security.
oil and forex
In some cases, the correlation is inverse, especially for markets such as oil that are priced in U.S. dollars in international trade. If you look at a chart comparing the price of oil and the value of the U.S. dollar (see Figure 2), you will see that when the U.S. dollar declines oil prices rise. Studies on data from the last few years have shown a negative correlation between oil and the dollar.They almost never move in tandem but almost always move in opposite directions.
See chart link below:
http://www.tradertech.com/lbm_bo4.gif
The PTB want to divide the American people as many ways as possible. If they can distract people that works to their advantage. Money is not the problem, as they would have you believe. There are enough yachts in this country to stretch from Fairbanks to Fresno and Maine to Brownsville bow to stern, yet some would begrudge their 90 y.o. granny her stipend so that she can get her can of beans? Wake up people.
...In some cases, the correlation is inverse, especially for markets such as oil that are priced in U.S. dollars in international trade. If you look at a chart comparing the price of oil and the value of the U.S. dollar (see Figure 2), you will see that when the U.S. dollar declines oil prices rise. Studies on data from the last few years have shown a negative correlation between oil and the dollar.They almost never move in tandem but almost always move in opposite directions....
Over 30 years ago I can remember a guy writing about this saying that it was just oil producers wanting to keep up in real terms and not buy $ inflation. Deals are now being done for oil in currencies other than dollars, how much affect will that have?
Deals are now being done for oil in currencies other than dollars, how much affect will that have?
@ AW,
True dat and a good question.
There will be more of this, imo, as the dollar goes down, and were it not for Peak Oil, it would be a concern.
We are using more oil that we can produce and the sweet light cheap crude is almost gone.
$100.00 price per barrel will be the new mean, I think.
However and according to ITULIP's "Ka Poom" the Energy sector will be inflated next, because our economy is based on growth.
This will be a "win win" for every one (Private and public energy companies, Employees in the sector,
and investors, I reckon), except people who drive and eat.
We are using more oil that we can produce and the sweet light cheap crude is almost gone. $100.00 price per barrel will be the new mean, I think.
Where have I heard that before? Oh, wait. It's a new paradigm. There is no bubble. It's different this time.
Edgar,
I begrudge giving your Granny a single penny that you try to take from me by force (taxation). I hope the credit crunch gives us the opportunity to rid ourselves of greedy tax-thieves. Buy ammo.
You might find this interesting, concerning recent ideas, such as game theory.
Adam Curtis video "The Trap."
@ Lou Minatti,
Believe as you wish Lou, at your peril, imo.
Not trolling, just really what I think.
Now we wait and watch.
I am ready. Are you?
Excellent blog!!
Thanks FMW foe the tip...
goes on the blog roll.
Now we wait and watch.
I am ready. Are you?
I drive a fuel-efficient vehicle, so it doesn't matter to me what gas prices do.
Don't fall into the "it's different this time" fallacy.
Who could have predicted the Oil Glut of the 1980's? When alternatives become cheap, I will be haapy to watch these same oil companies go bankrupt. Because, I predict with certainty, it will happen again.
@BJ
So why is it that the social security system is so underfunded? To the point where it clearly states on printouts I get that by 2040, the pot will be empty. (Incidentally, that is right around the time I turn 65)
What is causing this drain on the system if the baby boomers projected draw is less than the previous generation?
@Edgar
Why is anyone surprised that real estate is the favorite of boomers (followed by qualified plans)
Both are heavily subsidized by the government.
I'm the biggest chump - I saved a ton of cash in a money market over the last 5 years.
Mom was in a nursing home and dad refused to carry the life insurance he agreed to as part of their divorce (he knew I wouldn't take him to court)
All that cash I piled up is now worth at least 25% less than it was 5 years ago.
Should have bought real estate instead. :(
@tom 10:18 AM
Social Security is underfunded because there are so many Boomers and we had fewer children who will pay Social Security taxes. But Social Security is not the real problem, it's Medicare.
Medicare is in much worse shape. Not only are there so many Boomers, but medical technology has improved our ability to treat many problems, but at a high cost. So, high numbers of Boomers X high cost per Boomer = screwed younger taxpayers.
In 1960, if you had a cardiac arrest, you were dead. Death was cheap, then. Now, people can be revived, although many are disconnected from life support when they don't wake up, and after spending a huge sum of money waiting to see if they will wake up. Computed tomography scans (CT or CAT scans) came out in the mid 70's, and MRI became widespread in mid 80's. We have much better drugs, but they cost money. As medical technology expands, the cost per person will grow. Do you think we Boomers are going to forego this technology to prolong our lives?
Most young people are completely clueless about this generational wealth transfer. Our current Presidential candidates aren't talking about how they would solve this problem. The options are to decrease benefits, increase taxes, and print money. The government will likely do all three.
What can you do? Don't smoke, eat right, and exercise. Your cost share is not going to get less over time. You'll have to bear a higher proportion of the costs. What you do now, will affect your costs years from now. Unfortunately, most Americans aren't willing to do these basic things.
I will be haapy to watch these same oil companies go bankrupt. Because, I predict with certainty, it will happen again.
******************
@ Lost Cause,
You again are right. That is why my other deal is a global 'solar/clean water remote system' deal.
Now, first there will be a run up like you can not imagine, in energy/oil, then the crash.
I am riding the oil bubble up up and up.
So should others, in that it will protect the value of your dollar, see the oil vs dollar graph above, my post.
nuff said.
Now we wait and watch.
I am ready. Are you?
I drive a fuel-efficient vehicle, so it doesn't matter to me what gas prices do.
Don't fall into the "it's different this time" fallacy.
@ Lou,
Click on 8:06 AM, Roccman said...
just above your post, read, then come tell me "its different this time" is a fallacy.
Or just take the red pill.
@ EDGAR,
Remember November the 5th,
lolol!!!!!
Hi FMW! :):):):):):):)
Bill, Buck up my little buckaroo, you'll be able to buy twice as much real estate in 2009 than you could have in 2005. If it's RE you want, then RE you shall have.
@Arthur Wankspittle
Have you? Wasn't the dollar de-linked from gold in the early 70's?
Yes it was, and I was born before 1970 (now where is my bottle of Geritol). Gold backed currency supporters like to push the idea that the de-linking was the cause of the stagflation that followed. They like to ignore (unless it runs up the values of gold coins) that in the '30s, gold was confiscated to try to pull out of a crash. Collectible gold coins were later exempted from that confiscation. (gold coin reference)
With a fiat currency, you no longer have the issue of confiscation. The government can just 'print money'.. which is kind of what they did with the gold in the 30's.. you basically got a receipt for the gold that was confiscated and the gold was put back into circulation.
My thoughts are that printing more money is the least worst way out of the problem.
I agree. The problem is that the fed has only a gross control on things, so to prevent inflationary pressures, they are likely to increase interest rates. The advantage of the print-money approach is that the fed will not have to float as many treasuries to finance the deficit spending.
Click on 8:06 AM, Roccman said...
just above your post, read, then come tell me "its different this time" is a fallacy.
Or just take the red pill.
"It's different this time" is just a fallacy. Oil prices will dive, same as they have in prior cycles.
We aren't running out of oil, any more that builders in Las Vegas were running out of land. We will simply become more efficient. I also predict that nationalized oil companies which control much of the world's reserves will beg private oil companies to come back. The Venezuelan and Mexican governments are running things as efficiently as any government agency can be expected.
There is an energy bubble, specifically an oil and gas bubble. It's just itching to be popped. Since you're convinced otherwise, sit tight and wait a few years. I hope to be around here to say, "See, I told you so."
@Tom
So why is it that the social security system is so underfunded? To the point where it clearly states on printouts I get that by 2040, the pot will be empty.
Two things that I mentioned earlier; poor returns on SS invested capital, and the dependence on high population growth (Ponzi Scheme).
Congress has been using it as a cheap loan for deficit spending. In the process, Congress is paying an unusually low interest rate back to the Social Security Trust fund. This gives an usually low return on invested capital (see the list on this plot for 30 year return factors. The multiplier is used to multiply against the amount taxed to get an approximate(slightly overstated) that the funds would grow to in 30 years at the indicated interest rate. If taxed amount was $10,000 and interest was 4%, resulting amount in 30 years would be about $32,400. If interest was 8%, $10,000 would become $100,600 in 30 years. By the way, Berkshire Hathaway has returned greater than 20% y/y over 30 years.. $10,000 for 30 years would become $2,373,600.
What is causing this drain on the system if the baby boomers projected draw is less than the previous generation?
See above..
Why is anyone surprised that real estate is the favorite of boomers (followed by qualified plans)
Both are heavily subsidized by the government.
Please explain how they are subsidized?
Qualified Plans? You pay the tax on the way out. It is only tax deferred. There is no government money going into the qualified plans. Theoretically, your tax rate will be lower when you have to retire. From what I am seeing, the percentage of income taken for taxes will be greater for median income than it is presently.
Real Estate? The deductibility of interest on a mortgage was added to make it consistent with business deductions. Businesses can deduct interest expense from their revenues pre-tax. The business deductibility was the loophole that the rich were using on Real Estate purchases before it was allowed for individuals.
@Bill
I'm the biggest chump - I saved a ton of cash in a money market over the last 5 years.
Mom was in a nursing home and dad refused to carry the life insurance he agreed to as part of their divorce (he knew I wouldn't take him to court)
All that cash I piled up is now worth at least 25% less than it was 5 years ago.
Sorry to hear. You should have sued him or at least make scary noises that you would. Life insurance is not a good investment though. Its ROI is even worse than money markets. The part you were oblivious to is time-value of money. Money Market returns are just slightly higher than inflation rates if only just. Real Estate has traditionally been just slightly higher. This last run-up has been an abberation. In 5 years you will be thankful you didn't invest in RE. In comparison, the stock market has an average 12% return (S&P 500). Nothing is a 100% safe place to invest. The higher the risk, the higher the rate of return to offset the risk. Consider that your money would have to 'work' for you. You need to find it a good job when you are saving.
@Lou Minatti 2:03
Remember Charlie Brown, Lucy & the football. OPEC will rerun the 80's price drop all over again. It worked. For them. Not us.
All the alternative fuels were no longer competitive, and they rotted on the vine, (And I do love to mix metaphors).
As we speak, the economy (if we believe the govt.) is quite healthy, with crude at about $75.
I've said this, & I'll say it again, the single most important political act is to put a floor on oil. Say $75.
If the Middle East decides to drop crude to, say $25, we send $50/barrel directly to pay down the national debt. Domestic fossil & alternative fuels get full market price.
Investment in domestic production will continue.
Investment in alternative fuels will not be facing an uncertain future.
Energy will be priced rationally.
Are there any downsides to this?
Otis (the elevator guy) figured out how to stop elevator crashes. Does our economy deserve any less?
@wagga
Remember Charlie Brown, Lucy & the football. OPEC will rerun the 80's price drop all over again. It worked. For them. Not us.
OPEC did not cause the price drop. The price drop almost killed OPEC. They are addicted to that income stream. In fact, OPEC is very cognizant of the risk of too high a price. The price drop occurred because demand fell off a cliff. Price/Demand curve; higher price, lower demand for the goods. In addition CAFE mileage standards for automobiles were imposed during the high oil prices.
@BJ
Keeping a floor under crude whilst demand falls off a cliff would be an excellent outcome for domestic producers and alternative energy.
There are differences, since last time, also. Asia is oil-hungry, and the Saudis are no longer extracting crude for $.25/barrel.
Even if the national debt wasn't paid down by one dirty penny by this concept, domestic energy would be priced rationally, and investment in alternative energy would be protected.
Head honcho at OPEC recently announced that if biofuels were developed, OPEC would limit infrastructure support.
Please, OPEC, just do it. Sand recipes to follow.
I did not say we were running out of oil, I said we are out of 50% of the reserves in the world, the rest is expensive oil.
you ain't seen nothin yet, Lou.
And, yes, time will tell...........
Help me out here Wagga,
Saudi is on the decline. They are reporting more production than they have. The largest field in Mexico will be gone in 5 years. These are the number one and two importers of oil to the US! The North Sea will be caped off in 5 to 6 years, according to BP.
Why are they not reporting the decline, why can they not increase the oil out put, just to meet demand, if the oil is there?
It is just a natural deduction that they Can Not.
100.00 PPB is not because of the market makers as the New York Times reported, it is because of the expense, like the tar sands that are filling the demand gaps.
@FMW
Back in the early '90s I drew up the artwork for a number of drilling "Investor Subscription Booklets".
They gave me AutoCad files, & I cleaned them up & produced AI files.
Nelson Energy Programs Inc. & Atlas Resources, Inc., and others.
Akubi @ I are contemplating an energy series, please email akubi - akubidoo@yahoo.com if you want to put your paddle in the water.
@ Wagga,
Isn't Akubi and "an energy series" an oxymoron? Oil is not her friend she has written.
tEE hEE
Thanks, I shall e mail her now, if she promises not to get mad at me.
I am on her side, I just got into to oil to ride the bubble up and survive. You know, not get laid off, buy food and pay for a home and stuff like that.
I have a collection of sources and stories, kinda like your ethanol collection.
(-:
I'm putting together an Energy Series where you can discuss. First I've got to check that the 2 dozen links work and finish the "fungible" section and repolish the old Hubbert/Campbell bomb that I haven't used in years. I do note that all the peakenese have AGAIN moved the peak oil moment ahead.
Canada is currently our largest importer.
But yes, crude (& energy in general) has been ridiculously under-priced for at least a half-century.
Here's a thought experiment:
Imagine a 25 ton semi-trailer with a 300 horsepower motor, sitting at a red light. Note that a gifted athlete can put out almost 1 horsepower for a very limited time.
Light changes: 300 pushers & the semi clears the lights in 30 seconds. The athletic team recuperates, and can do it again on the next minute. At minimum wage we are paying abut $2000/hour for 60 pushes, or something north of $30 for each push. Diesel fuel will do this for a cupful, less than 30 cents worth of fuel.
That's a 100 to 1 ratio. Doubling/tripling the price of energy is irrelevant.
Is this what you were looking for?
And email Akubi too.
Yep, that is quite a vivid picture Wagga. The Energy Bubble is going to take most every one by surprise, just like housing did this year. It is such an emotional topic that people do not hear the truth.
and
I e mailed Akubi, just.
I used your name as my good reference.
Te he he
@FMW
Pay attention to the second table in the canada pointer - total petroleum imports, not just crude.
Bookmarked this source. I like it.
I guess the oil sands are here to stay and the oil shale will be next.
I am pleased that Canada is our #1 source, and I stand corrected, gladly.
There is plenty there to extract, but it ain't cheap.
TTFN
PS Wagga,
These two blogger guys, Richard and Edgar are also oil and energy news hounds and experts, where I got the bug actually.
And I consider them my friends:
Great guy to bring in, Richard and his oil and other energy news blog:
http://roccland.blogspot.com/
And you know Edgar:
http://pppad.blogspot.com/
@FMW
I don't think oil is anybodies friend. It merely provided the acceleration to a techno-society.
Akubi's posts just point out how dependent we are on oil. How may whales would exist on this planet if we still depended on whale oil for lighting?. Thank you St. Thomas (Edison).
We just need to move on to utilize current solar (& other energies).
Yesterday the temp range in Fresno was 72 to 108F. Anybody care to calculate how many BTU over how many millions of acres that represents? How many barrels of oil?
From here on out, let's use CurrentSolar™ to represent using our local thermonuclear fusion furnace (that big bright thing in the daytime sky) instead of stored fossil solar energy.
@wagga
Keeping a floor under crude whilst demand falls off a cliff would be an excellent outcome for domestic producers and alternative energy.
I don't know if it would be that good of an outcome. Energy costs affect many things, including the oil used to make plastics. High oil prices result in general inflation because it trickles down into everything.. driving the cost of everything else up.. including the base cost of renewable energy production (manufacturing of equip, processing costs etc).
Even if the national debt wasn't paid down by one dirty penny by this concept, domestic energy would be priced rationally, and investment in alternative energy would be protected
I think the spending habit needs to be controlled first. You are giving Casey Serin another bit of SweetLeverage™ here in the form of paying down the run up in debt.
There are differences, since last time, also. Asia is oil-hungry, and the Saudis are no longer extracting crude for $.25/barrel.
Saudis are still extracting at a very cheap price (1 barrel == 42 gallons, 1 gallon crude results in more than one gallon of gasoline because of hydrocarbon cracking) Did you mean to say $0.25/barrel or $25/barrel? Gasoline goes for slightly over $0.98 a gallon in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. What the international market gets charged versis what is charged within country are two different amounts.
The cost for extraction from newly drilled wells (internationally) is different.. and far higher. A lot of the new drilling is deep sea drilling which is very expensive. (but Saudi Arabia has not resorted to that yet).
The Asia factor is a wildcard though. They are starting to create an independent market, but at the same time their market is still linked to ours. If we cut consumption of consumer goods.. it affects the amount of goods that Asia would have a market for.
Head honcho at OPEC recently announced that if biofuels were developed, OPEC would limit infrastructure support.
Huh? reference publication please. This only cuts their own throat.
Here is an interesting chart on gas prices..
@FMW
BP, who extracts north sea claiming it will be capped in 5 to 6.. good way to scare up oil prices... and thereby profits.
Why are they not reporting the decline, why can they not increase the oil out put, just to meet demand, if the oil is there?
The only way to increase rate of production is to increase the number of drill holes... which take a while to produce. You can force molasses through a pipe only so fast...
Tar sands only contribute about 1mil barrels/day.. less than 5% world production.
I agree, but the Photo voltaic, which I love, is produced with oil based materials.
The E-ROI is not viable yet.
Again, go to my friend Richard's blog. He is an Energy expert and loves to blog. I hang out there and here every day.
I have a solar company that is in start up as well.
I'm with ya, but it does not look good in the near term (next 5 to 10 years), imo.
Well, and there is a rig shortage.
@FMW
The Dawg, MS A. & I have been thinking about some kind of peer-reviewed series of "papers". We thought you might be interested. Now that the kc thing has gone back under the rock, and EN has a decent readership, we think it would be good to offer up some truthful, well-documented articles for discussion.
Richard & Edgar (even tho you beat me on at 6 degrees) are welcome, just email akubidoo at you know where.
@wagga
How about horsepower in terms of the cost of horses... I'll pick Clydesdales...
What about electric energy? 1 horsepower == 745.56 Watts.. how much is your solar collector worth? This site has some 10KVA + arrays.
Using people pushers is a poor example. Their value is beyond just pushing.. and minimum wage inflates value to some extent (neededly in some cases though).
Lifted from Richards Blog:
I watched it, you should too.
http://www.rte.ie/tv/futureshock/
Future Shock: End of the Oil Age
A little over an hour. Well worth the watch and a good primer for new people joining the fray.
we think it would be good to offer up some truthful, well-documented articles for discussion.
***********************
@ Wagga,
I am totally with you and VERY interested in this subject. So interested in it that I changed my carrer to be a part of the oil and solar industry.
I'm in.
(-:
@FMW
I agree, but the Photo voltaic, which I love, is produced with oil based materials.
The E-ROI is not viable yet.
Actually it isn't produced with oil based materials. It is produced with very pure beach sand (no joke). Silica/Silcon is a large component of beach sand. It is purified to 99.9+% and then doped with a mineral the provides electron holes and charges (2 materials actually). The only thing that oil is used for, is the energy to refine the silica and build the wafers.
The ROI is an interesting one. I keep seeing the ROI figure move so that it is never effective. I think Solar makes all energy utilities fearful. (produce your own energy for your car and house.. who needs the gas companies etc?.. talk about a rotation in the economic processes!). Over 10 years ago, TI came out with a method for applying silicon to a metal sheet, much like hot metal-spray technique. It was much like painting metal. The solar efficiencies of the resulting product were not as high, but the construction was very very cheap. I always wondered what happened to it.
I think the technique for the solar cell that TI used was 'sputtering'..
Damn IEEE.. charge people for articles that the IEEE didn't write... me.. I prefer arxiv.org.
I follow this, so does Edgar, and that is where I get a LOT of my good solar stories.
There is a nano solar technology and it will be ready in about a year.
E ROI up, price down.
Also, Q Cells is mass producing solar
and a lot of investors are getting in, as I met one in Winter Park and he sent me here.
http://q-cells.com/cmadmin_2_542_0.html
Also, these two I lifted (saved) from Edgar's blog,
http://www.nanosolar.com/RapidThermalProcessing.htm
http://www.arisetech.com/content/view/37/108/
Thanks for the shout out FMW. Actually, I prefer thermal for large scale solar operations. There are many designs, the trough, the sterling engine & dish, and the collector tower. PV is better suited for homes and box store roofs, where it can supply power close to where it is needed at peak demand times.
Edgar,
You are WAY more qualified than I am to get into this fun new series.
Although I do have a large collection of the latest and most interesting oil articles I can find.
You and Richard did give me the energy Blog Bug.
My boss is on my e mail oil news list, so I keep things up to date and fresh.
(-:
Hi FMW!
1) I'm not more qualified than you.
you sed: You and Richard did give me the energy Blog Bug.
I hope you saw a doctor for that, it's hard to get rid of. ;-)
@BJ
One of hundreds, Blood on the sand
Asia: Returning from a backpack trip to the California Channel Islands, we were confronted with a chinese container ship in the main channel. It was belching mustard-colored (OK baby-shit colored) exhaust WHICH OBLITERATED OUR VIEW OF THE ISLANDS IN MINUTES!
They are required to use low-sulphur fuel inside US territorial waters. Friends? NOT!
Spending habit: By locating my business in a house, I can do all my shopping on foot or bike, meeting my doctor's recommendation of 30 minutes exercise per day. All business activities are electronic.
I don't run a vehicle anymore, saving perhaps $2000 per year.
Total energy budget is less than $100 per month.
Plastic: Recycle - The recycle bin goes out every 2 weeks, and the garbage bin one a month. Mostly for cat litter.
And I'm not all that virtuous - I do enjoy beer imported from blighty, and so forth.
@Edgar
PV is better suited for homes and box store roofs, where it can supply power close to where it is needed at peak demand times.
Which is why the utilities hate it.. and fight tooth and nail to prevent you from setting up a solar array of any decent size.
@ Wagga,
Bio-fuels will increase the cost of oil.
I figured it, but this is the first source that confirmed my thought.
Thanks.
Bio-fuels will increase the price of Beer, too.
)-:
@ Edgar,
The Congress just passed all kinds of tax relief to encourage solar, and Bush will veto it.
It taxes the oil companies.
d'oh.
@wagga
Thanks for the link.. interesting. In the picture, Abdalla El-Badri looks almost worried..
This would definitely be cutting their own throats.
I hope you took pictures of the Chinese registered ship... get close up of registration info and what was visible of channel islands.. EPA might be interested as a guess.. if not, send off to Sierra Club with descriptive letter.
@ all,
gtg, really this time.
Cover stories abound. Biofuels will push up the price of oil, yes, and plastic pumkins, and pharmaceuticals, and little green men from Mars. You can smell the fear, they won't be able to hide the declines much longer. Lou is teh funny on the subject. Stick to housing Lou, leave peak oil to the tinfoil hat night riders.
@FMW
The Congress just passed all kinds of tax relief to encourage solar, and Bush will veto it.
Funny but incorrect. It was packaged in a bill that Bush threatened to veto because its taxation. Only some (small) amount of the taxes were to go to solar. He is against the taxation portion of oil companies. Drilling an oil well has a multi-million dollar price tag. It is high risk. If successful, it should pay off. It may or not pay off. Bush has actually pushed solar as an agenda. Even his own house in Texas is an example of efficiency.. I'll try to get links referencing this stuff later(it is very under-reported).
@BJ
That was 4-5 years ago. Since then, every time I have wanted to purchase some item, I just look for "Made in China". And mostly don't. Even though Harbor Freight has some fantastic bargains.
If only 10% of the population understood the problem & acted on it, we would cut them off at the knees.
Gluten with melamine added to increase the apparent protein content?
Want a video of the chinese Brilliant car crash test? OK
Please do not construe this to be racist, mainland china is just not ready for first world status yet. It's mainly economics vs quality control
Yes, Deming is one of my heroes.
@BJ 6:00 pm
Dawg posted this several months ago. Can't find it though. Maybe he'll post the link.
He is against the taxation portion of oil companies.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Not to troll BJ, But what was incorrect about what I posted, when you just said exactly the same thing????
I guess you are more eloquent than I am, if I had time I would post the story but work in the Oil biz calls.
Bush has actually pushed solar as an agenda. Even his own house in Texas is an example of efficiency.. I'll try to get links referencing this stuff later(it is very under-reported).
****************
I know this too, as my Solar Company partners are inside DC's beltway. This story and pics were posted on Edgar's Blog about two months ago. Thanks BJ.
It will not be funny when the Dems try to take away the oil company's tax breaks for ethanol development.
Man, some real bile on Sunday's posts. Some of you folks need to learn to get out and have some fun.
Couple things.
S/S was originally set up to begin payments @ 65. But at the time, the average American only lived to 62. So there was better than a 50/50 chance you were going to get nothing. Great marketing job, but as we live longer, the equation does not work.
The fact the money was not invested but dumped into the general fund. Their money is gone, as is yours bunkie.
Some of you really hate those boomers. The average american basically accumulates about 3 years of s/s monthly payments. So anyone who hits 68 ought to be cut loose right?
Reason I bring this up. Can I call YOUR PARENTS to tell them you want to cut them off @ 68, or 65 if they started collecting early? Tell them how they are lazy and feeding off of your efforts?
I am sure it will not affect your birthday gift.
Those baby boomers paid for your grandparent's retirement.
They paid off the national debt left by their parents. Just that W and those spend happy Repubicans screwed the pooch after all the hard work and suffering your parents went through.
Most got screwed on their pensions in the mid 80s. What few still are contributing will get the shaft in the next 2-4 years as the spawn of those original slimeballs now have their MBAs and are looking for an angle to get their big bonus just like dad. It will be to raid those pensions.
You say the boomers are lazy and don't take care of themselves. When it comes to poor health, it seems like you young sh*ts are the ones who have bad habits.
Talk about calling kettle black, you sat here all day Sunday instead of getting out and doing something. What do you think your health is going to be in 30 years with that lifestyle??
You pussies can't even breath peanut dust without causing a stir on an airplane.
A better angle to look at is where that healthcare is used. You will find a huge portion of Medicare is used on the last 10 days of a recipent's life. Those $10,000 a day bills for ICU when we all know that 87 year old's system is shutting down. Stop that (eg offer a 1 time $5K payout on death benefits if they sign up for no extra efforts to recisitate) and you will same billons a year.
And don't worry about voting for a baby boomer President, they are all baby boomers. Instead, don't vote for anyone who has governed near the border. Those are the politicians you need to look out for.
H.
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