Housing Bubble, credit bubble, public planning, land use, zoning and transportation in the exurban environment. Specific criticism of smart growth, neotradtional, forms based, new urbanism and other top down planner schemes to increase urban extent and density. Ventura County, California specific examples.
Monday, August 13, 2007
Random Thought
What do the US residential housing markets look like in Euros instead of dollars?
Ok - seriously. The dollar is quite weak, but even that won't make it look like a good investment - the potential upside is pretty slim. The market is dead for the next couple years.
If you're holding Euros and think the dollar is going to catch up with the Euro, then it might make sense... but I think the dollar, like the housing market, still has a way to fall.
The obvious difference, when looking at housing in Euros rather than dollars, is that the housing is much more colourful on the Euros. Fewer split pyramids, too. It's still early in the housing bust, though.
I've been trying to figure out how I could get my income in Euros and my expenses in Dollars for quite some time now. Or, better yet, income in Euros or Dollars and expenses in Pesos or Rupiahs . . .
if you're rich and looking for a beach pad or place in the hills it might seem more attractive than before. but if you're looking at it as an investment (i.e. renting it out) the rents still don't work out, and if you're stupid enough to try to flip well then you'll be in for a nice surprise.
other than premium properties i don't see much of a chance of foreigners keeping the values up. even there i don't see them coming in w/ enough force to keep it from getting ugly. you have to believe that even rich europeans don't want to over pay for an asset. but it wouldn't be the first time i was wrong.
I'm not sure it will be rich foreigners as much as it will be rich Asians. Europe is experiencing the effects of the Credit Bubble just as much as the U.S. is, and by the time the liquidity freeze has run its course, the U.S. and Europe will be equally badly off. Asia, on the other hand, will have more favorable exchange rates and loads of foreign exchange to spend. That may be one answer to the "who's going to buy all those McMansions" question.
If things slide enough it could make US real estate more attractive to foreigners, but I can't imagine enough of them investing to make a significant impact on the market.
So I've been watching KC on Skype... his contact list has grown from 24 to 258 in the last two weeks. The lad is still out there lurking and actively up to some thing.
@ Gypsy Pete, RE: watching KC on Skype? I thought Skype was a phone service. How do you watch someone on their phone service? I have T Mobile, can you see me? he he No, seriously, more information please. Thanks. FMW AKA Druid Gypsy
Say, I'm also curious as to what that Casey is up to!
. . . oh wait, no I'm not. But for those wondering what he is up to these days, just look for the words "get rich quick" and follow the scent of scam, and he won't be far off. Herbal supplements, penny stocks, multi-level marketing, whatever it is I'm sure he has some sweet™ deals in the works.
Uh oh, stocks dropping again. Time to get the Fed and the ECB on the phone to ask for more cash infusions into the markets.
No, no, don't worry, the markets aren't becoming conditioned to expect that the central banks will rescue them from every downturn. Just this once, and then the markets will stabilize, and then they won't have to intervene again. I mean, just as long as the markets don't drop again.
16 comments:
Still wildly overblown... but the numbers are smaller.
Oh... first!
Murst!
BTW where's the new thread to express our sadness over the departing Karl Rove ;)?
Ok - seriously. The dollar is quite weak, but even that won't make it look like a good investment - the potential upside is pretty slim. The market is dead for the next couple years.
If you're holding Euros and think the dollar is going to catch up with the Euro, then it might make sense... but I think the dollar, like the housing market, still has a way to fall.
The obvious difference, when looking at housing in Euros rather than dollars, is that the housing is much more colourful on the Euros. Fewer split pyramids, too. It's still early in the housing bust, though.
NR
I've been trying to figure out how I could get my income in Euros and my expenses in Dollars for quite some time now. Or, better yet, income in Euros or Dollars and expenses in Pesos or Rupiahs . . .
if you're rich and looking for a beach pad or place in the hills it might seem more attractive than before. but if you're looking at it as an investment (i.e. renting it out) the rents still don't work out, and if you're stupid enough to try to flip well then you'll be in for a nice surprise.
other than premium properties i don't see much of a chance of foreigners keeping the values up. even there i don't see them coming in w/ enough force to keep it from getting ugly. you have to believe that even rich europeans don't want to over pay for an asset. but it wouldn't be the first time i was wrong.
I'm not sure it will be rich foreigners as much as it will be rich Asians. Europe is experiencing the effects of the Credit Bubble just as much as the U.S. is, and by the time the liquidity freeze has run its course, the U.S. and Europe will be equally badly off. Asia, on the other hand, will have more favorable exchange rates and loads of foreign exchange to spend. That may be one answer to the "who's going to buy all those McMansions" question.
If things slide enough it could make US real estate more attractive to foreigners, but I can't imagine enough of them investing to make a significant impact on the market.
Isn't Hawaii mostly owned by Japan?
So I've been watching KC on Skype... his contact list has grown from 24 to 258 in the last two weeks. The lad is still out there lurking and actively up to some thing.
Building a suckers list??
@ Gypsy Pete,
RE: watching KC on Skype? I thought Skype was a phone service.
How do you watch someone on their phone service?
I have T Mobile, can you see me?
he he
No, seriously, more information please.
Thanks.
FMW
AKA Druid Gypsy
Say, I'm also curious as to what that Casey is up to!
. . . oh wait, no I'm not. But for those wondering what he is up to these days, just look for the words "get rich quick" and follow the scent of scam, and he won't be far off. Herbal supplements, penny stocks, multi-level marketing, whatever it is I'm sure he has some sweet™ deals in the works.
Uh oh, stocks dropping again. Time to get the Fed and the ECB on the phone to ask for more cash infusions into the markets.
No, no, don't worry, the markets aren't becoming conditioned to expect that the central banks will rescue them from every downturn. Just this once, and then the markets will stabilize, and then they won't have to intervene again. I mean, just as long as the markets don't drop again.
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