Flippers Fuel ForeclosuresAs of June 30, in Nevada, 32 percent of all prime mortgage in default and 24 percent of subprime defaults were on non-owner occupied properties, according to the MBA. The numbers for Arizona were 26 percent prime and 18 percent subprime. In California, they were 21 percent and 15 percent respectively.
The default rates in Florida for non-owner occupied homes were 25 percent for prime loans and 14 percent for subprime ones.
In the rest of the nation, non-owners accounted for just 13 percent of prime loan defaults and 11 percent of subprime.
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There is an awful lot of excess housing out there. Some of these are undoubtably second or investment purchases of boomers that are being backed out quickly. Some are flips and some are Crisp/Serin specials. Robert's growth pick: rental management for banks. Robert's short: rent prices in zoomburgs.
38 comments:
first fuckers!!
The numbers are bogus as they are based upon the box check on the mortgage for owner occupied.
Snowflake equates to 8 home dwellers who screwed up instead of 1 super nitwit.
They need to have a 3rd collium for fraudulate owners.
this reminds me of an article I read almost 1.5 years ago. In it the reporter was at one of those lotteries for housing that had yet to be built. they interviewed some dumb ass broad and asked her why she was there. Her remarks was that they were going to get rich flipping houses, and that they had so many properties in different states, she couldn't even rememeber all of them. to her it was a buying frenzy and she was a genius. "Honey don't we have a house in Vegas? We have so many it's hard to keep track"
I'm pretty sure we all know how this one more than likely ended up. she probably mae money until the music stopped and she was stuck with all these overpriced houses. Just look at the "classy realtor" with 6 waterfront properties which she owes millions on.
Right, the numbers represent a lower bound.
I was hoping CFC would tank on the latest housing news, but it looks like someone is struggling real hard to prop that piece o shit up.
check out the volume increase in the last 20 minutes
hmmm bzh has been on a death spiral for some time now...
Rob,
Do you mean zoomburbs?
The link to the "wrap-up" for Seattle Eric from the previous post was very entertaining.
"After buying and holding and/or selling twelve homes in the Puget Sound, we’ll have realized a net profit of around $100K."
Hey, that doesn't sound like present tense, that sounds like future tense.
"We have two left on the market, and hope to be rid of them soon."
Uh oh. Yep, definitely future tense . . . that "net profit of around $100K" is starting to look a little shaky.
"Also, we still have four houses in Tulsa, which continue to be a nightmare."
Yep . . . uh oh. Somebody only *thinks* they're out of the real estate market.
"I’m a big picture guy, not a details guy."
Hey, isn't that phrase trademarked?
And I'm beginning to realize that it's the "details guys", not the "big picture guys", who succeed in the long run.
"After a couple of successful flips in the first half of last year, I quit my job (partially to do real estate, but mostly because after nine years, I felt that I ran out of opportunities to grow) at [anonymous small tech company] where I joined as the 6th employee back in 1998."
He is only one of many, many people who went straight from the tech bubble into the real estate bubble. My question is, where are these people now? If you could track them and find out what they're up to, you'd be onto what the next speculative craze is going to be.
It would be great to put a tracking collar onto Casey and just follow him around, he'd be like a bloodhound for scams and speculative ventures. And then buy puts in every company he does business with; that would be some sweet™ passive income™.
P.S. Whatever happened to Jeff from San Diego?
any way you put those percentages together, the picture is not too good. i personally do not care how many fb's there are. it is far more important to me how many f*&%ed houses there are. that is the number that will drop prices quickly.
and dawg, thank you for the kind words yesterday on another thread.
And I'm beginning to realize that it's the "details guys", not the "big picture guys", who succeed in the long run.
Chiseled that in stone. The real Big Picture Guys are actually detail guys with vision.
Zoomburg is a nodal development pattern think Greater D.C. Zoomburbs are fast growing CSDs. Think Phoenix or Bakersfield.
The employee #6 guy went back to work at a big company that then bought the old little company making him an instant dot millionare. His RE stuff went badly south.
6 houses on the market expecting to clear $100k? LoL. Hemoraging Bagholder in Denial. Dead flipper talking. FB^6. I just hope they take good care of my houses until I get around to picking them up off the floor.
Bear Stearns can't use Cayman islands for bankruptcy protection
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aGtSK4F0HPTo&refer=home
IM BACK IN TOWN, HOW LONG HAS IT BEEN WITHOUT A SERIN REFERENCE!!
SO ANYWAY,
STUPID FINANCIAL DECISIONS = PRAY TO GOD FOR HELP!
Consider the recent experience of one Germantown, Md., couple who nearly lost their home. Vaughn and Candice bought a large brick-front colonial five years ago. A couple of years later, they refinanced their mortgage, allowing them to tap their home's equity to help pay college bills for two of their children. Their monthly mortgage payment was $4,000 a month, and everything seemed to be going well.
"We were fine," says Vaughn, who asked that his family's last name not be used in this story to protect their financial privacy.
But suddenly, a cosmetics business they ran began to dry up after one of the major stores at the mall where they operated shut down. They plowed their own savings into the business to try to keep it going. Despite Candice's income as a full-time engineer, they soon fell behind on their house payments. Vaughn's efforts to renegotiate with the loan company only resulted in an offer that he couldn't meet: $20,000 in cash by July.
The last straw: The interest on their ARM was poised to reset from 6.7 percent to about 9 percent as of that month.
By May, Vaughn was desperate, believing that a foreclosure notice could come any week. "I was asking God to show me the way," he says.
http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0827/p13s02-wmgn.html
@PV
glad you enjoyed the trip down memory lane.
Here's another one about Jeff the know it all smart ass....I'm still looking to see what happened to him...checking the obituaries daily in socal.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/2007/04/flipper_in_trou.html
@MIKE
I think God showed him the way when he stated from a burning bush "Sell the damn house you moron"
By the way, for those who want to delve deeper into mr brainiac, apparently he was a taco bell manager before he embarked on his real estate mogul journey.
Here's the link to check out this guy's fall from hubris. He was a smart ass in his earlier posts.
http://www.websitetoolbox.com/tool/post/sdcia/vpost?id=1854186
2:39 Mike said:
STUPID FINANCIAL DECISIONS = PRAY TO GOD FOR HELP!
These quotes from the good, the bad and the ugly seem to fit.
Tuco: [trying to read a note] "See you soon, id..." "id..." "ids..."
Man With No Name: [taking the note] "Idiots." It's for you.
Tuco: God is on our side because he hates the Yanks!
Blondie: God is not on our side because he hates idiots also.
Good Lord, just when I thought I had seen it all in the real estate scam, check out this piece of shit's book
HOODESTATE
Unfuckingbelievable
http://profile.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=user.viewprofile&friendid=144407035
Q: How would you describe your music?
A: 'I describe it as "get money music" I rap about what I know and that's getting money from all the angles in stacks.'
So does he rap about real estate scams, sweet cashback and short sales? I guess this was the next logical step for Rap to take.
Not to be politically incorrect here, but Joy Jenise Jackson of the $800,000 Star Jones-esque wedding also advertised on urban radio under the auspices of "giving back to her community" when in fact she was ripping off the ignorant. Looks like this guy has designs on doing the same.
TK, they are just following the script. Ethnic and/or religious affiliation is one of the ways to get trust and avoid suspicion.
When they finally DO cath up with Joy and her husband, I'm sure they will find Jesus in short order.
"YOULL GO FROM ASHY TO CLASYY"
makes kc look good.
Don't forget these gems from the mp3 that plays while on the site of hoodestate
"Laaaaadies, are you sick of having to bust a cap in a brudda's ass when they crash the crib hiding from the cops?"
"Laaaaadies, are you tyad tyad tyad of hearing this out side yo window?
'yo man you gots the stuff? F-you man, no F-YOU, don't give me dat shit muddafu"
"I'll show you how to make mo money mo money mo money!"
Ok, let's see how many of his peeps this scamster can fuck over before the "man" catches up with him.
https://www.hoodestate.com/index.html
let's see
Credit Repair in 3 months..(Ummm aren't those a scam, or worse, illegal? Not in da hood babeee, it's us against whitey) check
Trade Lines :Yup, pay un upfront fee and it looks like you have good credit..which you can't draw on of course. Check
American Express 4 YRS $24,000 $700
American Express 4 YRS $24,000 $700
Sears 3 YRS $3,700 $500
Discover 5 YRS $15,000 $600
Piece of shit book which I guarantee is a prelude to buying more expensive and expansive courses...check.
Wouldn't it have just been terrific if Casey could have turned IAFF into a beautiful site like these guys from "hoodestate". With Casey's set of contacts and database, he could have had a beautiful site. If only he could have gotten away from his passive nature....
Extreme Home Staging
By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Home sellers long ago discovered that small touches could boost selling prices - fresh flowers, the smell of freshly baked cookies. Now a real estate developer, Centex of Dallas, is adding in beautiful people.
The experiment in what’s called “staging” is simple: Home buyers enter a home and see not just furniture but real people - actors - playing out the life they might lead there.
The Centex program, which its creators call HomeLife, has been used twice so far at Milestone, a 166-house development in Santa Clarita, about 25 miles north of Hollywood.
In one performance, the ‘model’ family spent about three hours pretending it was Mom’s birthday. They baked a cake, sang happy birthday and the children drew and framed a picture - of a Centex house. The original cast included a former Baywatch hunk, Jaason Simmons, in the role of Dad
Ok ok, how about we show them what life would really be like in that overpriced shitbox...picture this
Mom is face down in the couch, a bottle of whiskey half empty in her left hand on the floor. Dad is snoozing in his lazyboy with just his underwear on. Skidmarks and yellow stains abound. On the table are numerous PAST DUE notices from the electric, internet, and cable company. A notice of default is also on the table. Mom has also received a letter stating that she is fired from her job as a walmart greeter because of an arguement she had with another greeter about who's turn it was to get the next cart. Junior is sniffing glue in his room while downloading porn. The dog has taken shits around the house since no one pays attention to him anymore. One of their cars has already been repossesed and the SUV that remains is sitting on 4 cinder blocks, the wheels gone. On the wall, a discolored area from smoking marks where the plasma tv USED to be before the store took it back.
But can this magical market really defy gravity much longer?
Shockingly, despite his paranoid questions and years of hardscrabble experience, Bob Toll's answer to that question is a resounding yes. For Toll, what looks to many people like pure craziness is perfectly normal, a reflection of a new supply-and-demand equation that will last a long time. He's an outspoken believer that, yes, the world really has changed this time. That the traditional boom-to-bust housing cycle is now a smooth upward climb. That housing prices will keep rocking practically, well, forever. "We'll reach the point Europe reached 20 years ago, where families pay 45% of their income on housing and married couples have to live with their parents for years before they can afford houses," he says. "Prices will keep going up in double digits for years." Toll is a bit worried about overheating in Las Vegas and Phoenix and predicts a near-term correction before those markets surge higher.
The sad thing, is that this guy made these comments in 2005. that's the sad thing, everything you may say is now there for prosperity.
Does anyone have a list of Casey Serin's lenders? I'm curious as to whether those loans might have ended up in a subprime RMBS (residential mortgage-backed security).
What a weak day this will be. CFC Looking up Premarket. Nobody will want to hold this piece of garbage going into the weekend. Looking like an attractive short term (i.e. cover by close) short.
From Bloomberg
"President George W. Bush will today announce plans to let the Federal Housing Administration guarantee loans for borrowers with poor or limited credit, according to an administration official who spoke on condition of anonymity. Investors also awaited remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke that may provide clues on the outlook for interest rates.
``This is a clear signal that the government wants to help households in distress,'' said Carsten Klude, who helps manage $20 billion as head of investment strategies at M.M. Warburg & Co. in Hamburg. ``That's good news because it eases concern that private consumption may falter.''
Thank God they're gonna bail out the FBs. How else were they gonna keep on spending if they had all their disposable income tied up in pesky mortgage payments.
Fuck you government!
I expected the gubernit to come to the rescue sooner or later. Glad my tax dollars are going to help out the FBs. Makes me glad to work those extra hours now.
Woo hoo!
Uncle Sugar steps in.
Of course, no one's going to touch the fact that most of these people should have remained renters for the rest of their lives.
On the last rent house I sold (better return than renting), the buyer didn't even know their interest rate.
I helped them find it among their papers at closing - 9.5%, with a second over 11% to get that magic "no money down" loan.
Now I get to help them stay in houses they've never been able to afford.
Jesus Christ when did we become communist?!!!
Geez just redistribute the wealth why doncha, socialized housing, socialized healthcare, tax the people who actually are out there busting their asses to subsidize the lazy and stupid, socialized education.
Glad to see I spent like 70K in taxes last year which could have gone to paying MY MORTGAGE to pay for some greedy dumbasses mortgage.
which is scarier:
The fact that folks will come to expect this sort of government handout/holding hand mentality
OR
That the government will eventually make all our decisions for us as we obviously cannot think for ourselves?
OR
is it a part of the vast government or alien conspiracy?? ;)
"The fact that folks will come to expect this sort of government handout/holding hand mentality"
Come to expect?!?! They already do. Leave it to the government, everything they do is done efficiently. I wonder how many 2000 dollar credit cards are going to be sent out to these fucked borrowers so that they can spend it liquor, strip clubs and gucci bags...sigh.
Hey, what about all those mobile homes that sit unused but were paid for by taxpayers for the Katrina disaster? Can't we just move all these morons there? Least they'll have a house. Won't be a 500K mansion, but they couldn't afford that anyways.
I think it's time for me to order HoodEstate the book and get mine before the man reaches into my pocket again.
Oh it will be terrific to see what terrific ideas our leaders in Washington can come up with to help these FBs. Legion, you hit it on the nail with cc companies figuring out a way to make their $$ on this plan.
I don't wish for a depression, but a lot of americans have just come to expect the government to bail them out for their own poor decision making. If the government truly does come up with a plan to assist these individuals, I will vote against any leader supporting such action.
I thought good 'ol GW swore that this administration was about accountability and doggone it there ain't gonna BE no bailout.
Shoulda' got myself a bigass mansion in a nice neighborhood I couldn't afford if I knew that everyone else's tax dollars would subsidize my mortgage payments.
Gotta keep that consumer spending machine rolling or else! Pay these assholes' mortgage and they'll have more money to spend on lead-paint covered shit from China. Keep buying your i-phones and digital cameras. Fatten those at America's big, publicly traded stores and we can all pretend everything's OK. I am DISGUSTED.
If I wanted to live in a socialized economy where a few corrupt jerkoffs ripping off the system were dragged the works down, I'd move back to Canada thank you very much.
PS Shorting CFC at the open was a good move as I suspected.
Drip
Drip
Drip
Nice move TK
I'm still shorting them.:-)
There was an article about two weeks ago about loss mitigation specialists complaining about these fucked borrowers that were whining about their state of affairs. The interesting thing was that despite their situation, these retards couldn't fanthom the idea of giving up their plasma tv's, cable or cell phones. How'd you like to work with a jerk like that?
"I can't pay my mortgage I can't pay my mortgage"
"Ok cut down on non necessities"
"I have none, I'm bare as it is! Oh wait flip this hosue is on!"
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