Housing Bubble, credit bubble, public planning, land use, zoning and transportation in the exurban environment. Specific criticism of smart growth, neotradtional, forms based, new urbanism and other top down planner schemes to increase urban extent and density. Ventura County, California specific examples.
Wednesday, August 22, 2007
Wednesday Rock Blogging
Frankly I'm getting tired of getting up early to see if the Asian markets have imploded and/or gone nova. Instead I'll retreat into the ultimate refuge, rock music. Enjoy. Pay attention.
Do you force your kids to listen to the Sex Pistols, Dawg? I force my kids to listen to Social Distortion. My parents forced me to listen to the Carpenters, so I guess it all evens out.
I saw Social D many years ago at the KROQ Acoustic Christmas show at Universal Studios.
Some other rock bands I have seen:
Rolling Stones Guns and Roses The Wonderstuff The mighty lemon drops Rage Against the Machine Audioslave The Eagles Matchbox 20 (no I am not gay) The Meat Puppets (worst band ever) Red Hot Chili Peppers (b4 they were pop)
Quit getting up early to watch this credit bubble unwind. You will be in your grave b4 this house of cards crubmles. To many bankers with access to too much credit...
Hey I just received a linkedin.com invite from turdflake!
http://www.linkedin.com/in/caseyserin
Summary
I'm a real estate and investment consultant. Help you find investments, projects or funding, or help you sell your projects. With my foreclosure adventures and international media exposure in the last 1-2 years, I've developed some great contacts and investment sources. Have access to investments from small to big... into hundreds of millions dollars. Lets put our networks to work and get some deals done! Email me at: casey@serin.us. Specialties:
You name it: single family residential and multi-family commercial real estate, real estate owned (REO), foreclosures, short sale, lease option, wholesale real estate and fixer-uppers, raw land, developments, apartments, casinos, resorts, defaulted mortgages and pools of notes, mid-term notes (MTNs), hard money loans, commercial financing, equity financing, commodities and mining: gold / silver / copper / oil, private equity funds and high-yield investments. Local and international.
I saw that CFC had some serious after hours action going on later today. Up to 26.75 I think (what a bunch of bullshit). Anyways, I'm glad I'm outta that mess, but hell, I did so well the first time, I'll short em again once they peak. BoA bailing them out is like putting a band aid on a cannonball wound.
"Force" my kids? They are the hot ticket at school. Everybody is constantly asking to listen to their iPods. Tubes, early R.E.M., Human Sexual Response, a little Elvis Costello, obscure Boston bands, and of course today's featured band P.I.L. Nasty influence that we are as parents we use these moments to sneak in early Bowie, Genisis, Peter Gabriel and even some subversive Fripp and/or Eno. The programming of our little subversives is proceeding to plan. We manipulate their pliant minds much like BofA is screwing with the billions of short interest in CFC.
Soooeee, the IAFF blog site has dropped from google's first page to the 5th page and it's circling the toilet. Way to go on that 50K expenditure Aaron.
As for "The Return" site, real or not, the last haters bait story about which murse he should buy next since he deserves it was met with a whopping 24 comments in 4 days.
Soooeee, the IAFF blog site has dropped from google's first page to the 5th page and it's circling the toilet. Way to go on that 50K expenditure Aaron.
I was never convinced he paid Casey $50k. It would be absurd to spend that kind of dough on a website and then basically ignore it.
This is not enough. The market is reacting to screw anyone holding short but it's actually a nice setup to short 'em again. This market gets SO jazzed and SO depressed on the slightest positive or negative. CFC Red by day's end?
The CFC "squeeze" was too good, too easy to pass up. I saw exactly the same thing with NFI as they've been circling the black hole of bankruptcy these last couple of months; every week or two, a massive short squeeze, they gain 25% in a day before heading back down again. Sellers beware.
It doesn't change the fact that CFC is doomed. Their shareholders' "equity" is nothing more than unrealized gains on option ARMs. That's an illusion, and it will be getting dispelled at some point.
But until then, be ready for more games with the stock price. And rumors of potential CFC buyouts by Warren Buffett, Bill Gates, Bank of America, Prince Bandar, the Federal Reserve, the Illuminati, the Martians, Bat Boy, etc.
With respect to the Asian markets, I think you're wasting your time, Rob. Asian markets will not come down to earth until it becomes staringly obvious that problems in the U.S. financial sector are not "contained" and have spread to employment and consumption. When that happens, the Asian markets will be set for a fall, but I don't see that happening for weeks, maybe months.
Saw this tidbit on the Reuter's piece regarding the CFC infusion of funds:
Bank of America (Charts, Fortune 500), the second-largest U.S. bank, said it bought non-voting preferred stock that yields 7.25 percent and can be converted into Countrywide common stock at $18 per share, 17.5 percent below the shares' Wednesday closing price
My question: What happens if CFC falls below $18 ? Would BoA get burned?
7.25 is nice, but the fact is they have to make PROFITS to pay those dividends. If they fold, BoA could have bid on the distressed assets like everyone else, except they got cash.
I just don't get why BoA would want to play with this one.
BofA is Apple's Microsoft, A single modest investment that paid many different types of dividends. When BofA does look at buying they'll have a happy grateful board to receive them.
Changing my opinion on this financing--it's not a short squeeze, it's death spiral financing.
Discussion on the Yahoo! forums here; links to Cramer's explanation here. As much as I don't trust Cramer, the one thing he's good for is exposing dirty tricks in the markets, and this is looking to be one of them.
Did you see the piece in the Times regarding Cashcall?
Here's the link: http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-cashcall23aug23,1,765764.story?ctrack=1&cset=true
Excerpt:
The company stopped making loans this week and was scrambling to negotiate an infusion of capital so it can resume business, said Daniel Baren, the company's general counsel. CashCall also laid off about 80 of its 1,200 employees, he said.
"The reason we had to stop originating is because of the same liquidity squeeze that's affecting everybody else," Baren said. "We are doing everything we can to get back to normal as soon as possible, and we are fairly optimistic that will happen."
@Funny Circus Bears: Sell and get out and consider yourself very, very lucky that it went up before it inevitably turns around and heads back down.
Re: CashCall. CashCall in trouble, who would have guessed? /sarcasm
The old "short every company that lent Casey money" strategy is doing amazingly well these days; too bad we never went to the effort to put together a formal portfolio to track it.
Sac RE Agent said... Gee Rob, it sounds like we're both 'white punks on dope'! "Don't Touch me There"
PV, Good linky. Thanky.
Dolph, Yeah, Cashcall in on my posting list along with the death spiral California Budget and the transit weenies whining that their free lunch may be late. So many related stories, so little time. Wagga has been feeding me Fresno juicyness as well. So many things all at once and the vast majority thinks they might have heard something about slowing home appreciation in other areas.
H Simpson, CFC did not piss away $2b. They surviced another day, kept about $400b technically on the books in the stock market, squeezed some shorts dry, gave Mozilo a good options strike. On and on. Not how we'd spend $2b but then we aren't locked in a death spiral either.
@Lou Minatti: "My parents forced me to listen to the Carpenters, so I guess it all evens out."
And some day you will thank them. A voice like Karen Carpenter's comes along only once in a hundred years, if that. Beside her and Annie Lennox, the current crop of female vocalists sound like teenagers at amateur night at the karaoke club.
@Sweet Cashback: . . . and the above goes double for Britney Spears.
Sooo true. High powered systems are meant for Annie Lennox's smooth powerful voice. Early Sade can also hang in there.
11 shopping days until the big boys get back from the Hamptons and correct this market 1 way or another. Anything before that is just the bullpen warming up.
36 comments:
MURST!
Do you force your kids to listen to the Sex Pistols, Dawg? I force my kids to listen to Social Distortion.
My parents forced me to listen to the Carpenters, so I guess it all evens out.
Okay, it is Wednesday and this is a blog.
Where is the 'rock'?
I saw Social D many years ago at the KROQ Acoustic Christmas show at Universal Studios.
Some other rock bands I have seen:
Rolling Stones
Guns and Roses
The Wonderstuff
The mighty lemon drops
Rage Against the Machine
Audioslave
The Eagles
Matchbox 20 (no I am not gay)
The Meat Puppets (worst band ever)
Red Hot Chili Peppers (b4 they were pop)
Rob-
Quit getting up early to watch this credit bubble unwind. You will be in your grave b4 this house of cards crubmles. To many bankers with access to too much credit...
Hey I just received a linkedin.com invite from turdflake!
http://www.linkedin.com/in/caseyserin
Summary
I'm a real estate and investment consultant. Help you find investments, projects or funding, or help you sell your projects. With my foreclosure adventures and international media exposure in the last 1-2 years, I've developed some great contacts and investment sources. Have access to investments from small to big... into hundreds of millions dollars. Lets put our networks to work and get some deals done! Email me at: casey@serin.us.
Specialties:
You name it: single family residential and multi-family commercial real estate, real estate owned (REO), foreclosures, short sale, lease option, wholesale real estate and fixer-uppers, raw land, developments, apartments, casinos, resorts, defaulted mortgages and pools of notes, mid-term notes (MTNs), hard money loans, commercial financing, equity financing, commodities and mining: gold / silver / copper / oil, private equity funds and high-yield investments. Local and international.
I saw that CFC had some serious after hours action going on later today. Up to 26.75 I think (what a bunch of bullshit). Anyways, I'm glad I'm outta that mess, but hell, I did so well the first time, I'll short em again once they peak. BoA bailing them out is like putting a band aid on a cannonball wound.
Perhaps this is more befitting the "big one". Dig that "White Zombie" sountrack.
"Force" my kids? They are the hot ticket at school. Everybody is constantly asking to listen to their iPods. Tubes, early R.E.M., Human Sexual Response, a little Elvis Costello, obscure Boston bands, and of course today's featured band P.I.L. Nasty influence that we are as parents we use these moments to sneak in early Bowie, Genisis, Peter Gabriel and even some subversive Fripp and/or Eno. The programming of our little subversives is proceeding to plan. We manipulate their pliant minds much like BofA is screwing with the billions of short interest in CFC.
Soooeee, the IAFF blog site has dropped from google's first page to the 5th page and it's circling the toilet. Way to go on that 50K expenditure Aaron.
As for "The Return" site, real or not, the last haters bait story about which murse he should buy next since he deserves it was met with a whopping 24 comments in 4 days.
the story is over folks..move along...
Soooeee, the IAFF blog site has dropped from google's first page to the 5th page and it's circling the toilet. Way to go on that 50K expenditure Aaron.
I was never convinced he paid Casey $50k. It would be absurd to spend that kind of dough on a website and then basically ignore it.
Countrywide gets a $2 billion infusion. shorts getting played big time today.
This is not enough. The market is reacting to screw anyone holding short but it's actually a nice setup to short 'em again. This market gets SO jazzed and SO depressed on the slightest positive or negative. CFC Red by day's end?
The CFC "squeeze" was too good, too easy to pass up. I saw exactly the same thing with NFI as they've been circling the black hole of bankruptcy these last couple of months; every week or two, a massive short squeeze, they gain 25% in a day before heading back down again. Sellers beware.
It doesn't change the fact that CFC is doomed. Their shareholders' "equity" is nothing more than unrealized gains on option ARMs. That's an illusion, and it will be getting dispelled at some point.
But until then, be ready for more games with the stock price. And rumors of potential CFC buyouts by Warren Buffett, Bill Gates, Bank of America, Prince Bandar, the Federal Reserve, the Illuminati, the Martians, Bat Boy, etc.
With respect to the Asian markets, I think you're wasting your time, Rob. Asian markets will not come down to earth until it becomes staringly obvious that problems in the U.S. financial sector are not "contained" and have spread to employment and consumption. When that happens, the Asian markets will be set for a fall, but I don't see that happening for weeks, maybe months.
Saw this tidbit on the Reuter's piece regarding the CFC infusion of funds:
Bank of America (Charts, Fortune 500), the second-largest U.S. bank, said it bought non-voting preferred stock that yields 7.25 percent and can be converted into Countrywide common stock at $18 per share, 17.5 percent below the shares' Wednesday closing price
My question:
What happens if CFC falls below $18 ? Would BoA get burned?
7.25 is nice, but the fact is they have to make PROFITS to pay those dividends. If they fold, BoA could have bid on the distressed assets like everyone else, except they got cash.
I just don't get why BoA would want to play with this one.
@H Simpson
That is what I am trying to figure out as well. A couple of the choices I have thought about include:
BOA thinks it is worth more than $18/share
BOA wants to stabilize the market and believes there will be enough left of CFC to pay off preferred shares
BOA took 2B of the Feds money at 5.25 and needed somewhere to put it where it would make a profit.
BofA is Apple's Microsoft, A single modest investment that paid many different types of dividends. When BofA does look at buying they'll have a happy grateful board to receive them.
Changing my opinion on this financing--it's not a short squeeze, it's death spiral financing.
Discussion on the Yahoo! forums here; links to Cramer's explanation here. As much as I don't trust Cramer, the one thing he's good for is exposing dirty tricks in the markets, and this is looking to be one of them.
@PV
Good Links, Thanks
Hey Dawg,
Did you see the piece in the Times regarding Cashcall?
Here's the link: http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-cashcall23aug23,1,765764.story?ctrack=1&cset=true
Excerpt:
The company stopped making loans this week and was scrambling to negotiate an infusion of capital so it can resume business, said Daniel Baren, the company's general counsel. CashCall also laid off about 80 of its 1,200 employees, he said.
"The reason we had to stop originating is because of the same liquidity squeeze that's affecting everybody else," Baren said. "We are doing everything we can to get back to normal as soon as possible, and we are fairly optimistic that will happen."
I bought 1,000 shares CFC last week @ $16.48 - couldn't pass it up. We'll see what happens.
Gee Rob, it sounds like we're both 'white punks on dope'!
@Funny Circus Bears:
Sell and get out and consider yourself very, very lucky that it went up before it inevitably turns around and heads back down.
Re: CashCall. CashCall in trouble, who would have guessed? /sarcasm
The old "short every company that lent Casey money" strategy is doing amazingly well these days; too bad we never went to the effort to put together a formal portfolio to track it.
CFC is almost at yesterday's closing meaning they found a method to piss away 2 BILLION dollars while not doing a thing.
These guys are pros.
KC would be proud.
As would the US Govt...
H
I bought 4000 shares of CFC at 22.79, shorted of course, we'll see what happens:-)
heh, 21.95 now..I suspect there is gonna be a run for the hills anytime now.
You can polish a turd all you want..it's still gonna be a turd.
PV, I jacked the stop to $20, but I'm not cashing out yet.
Sac RE Agent said...
Gee Rob, it sounds like we're both 'white punks on dope'!
"Don't Touch me There"
PV,
Good linky. Thanky.
Dolph,
Yeah, Cashcall in on my posting list along with the death spiral California Budget and the transit weenies whining that their free lunch may be late. So many related stories, so little time. Wagga has been feeding me Fresno juicyness as well. So many things all at once and the vast majority thinks they might have heard something about slowing home appreciation in other areas.
H Simpson,
CFC did not piss away $2b. They surviced another day, kept about $400b technically on the books in the stock market, squeezed some shorts dry, gave Mozilo a good options strike. On and on. Not how we'd spend $2b but then we aren't locked in a death spiral either.
@FCB
The rules of trading include never try to sell at a peak, and er heh heh, never listen to people who give advice on a blog:-)
looks like cfc is gonna go negative anytime now...then watch the rush
PV:
Clever. Very clever. I'm feeling a mixture of admiration and disgust right now.
Lou Minatti:
Stop it. You're making me feel old.
OK you bunch of old farts.....can we talk about Britney Spears now ?
@Lou Minatti: "My parents forced me to listen to the Carpenters, so I guess it all evens out."
And some day you will thank them. A voice like Karen Carpenter's comes along only once in a hundred years, if that. Beside her and Annie Lennox, the current crop of female vocalists sound like teenagers at amateur night at the karaoke club.
@Sweet Cashback:
. . . and the above goes double for Britney Spears.
PV
Sooo true. High powered systems are meant for Annie Lennox's smooth powerful voice. Early Sade can also hang in there.
11 shopping days until the big boys get back from the Hamptons and correct this market 1 way or another. Anything before that is just the bullpen warming up.
H.
Ok, back on track
http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/23/magazines/fortune/eavis_countrywide.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2007082316
H.
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