Housing Bubble, credit bubble, public planning, land use, zoning and transportation in the exurban environment. Specific criticism of smart growth, neotradtional, forms based, new urbanism and other top down planner schemes to increase urban extent and density. Ventura County, California specific examples.
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
Break In the Weather
White Ledge Peak, Carpenteria, CA.
Nordoff Peak, Wheeler Hot Springs, CA.
Chief Peak (to right) Upper Ojai, CA.
Yes, this is what I stare at all day long from my office.
In re: your comment on Bubble Info about neg. an REO price down 10 per cent while in escrow
Dawg: I’m about to go into escrow on a short sale and b/c of bank incompetence, don’t give two sh*ts if I get it or not. How did you come back lower in escrow. I feel like knocking off 10% and sending it back through the process again. Let me know. Thanks.
Mccamman, The way I did it was to "discover" "significant" "impairment(s)" to the property. I also timed it such that this was near the end of the fiscal quarter. In this case it was a crack in the "foundation" which if we hadn't closed would need to be disclosed in any future escrow.
The idea is to go Colombo in them and have "just one more thing."
Just jealous - I actually have to do work inbetween staring out at Mt Baldy.
Funny you should mention that. The cabin retreat is in Wrightwood and Mt. Baldy is nearby. Some of the best skiing in a decade this week through the end of the month at Mt. High. Sounds juvenile but I'm "stoked." When you get older like me just taking off and skiing is a logistic impossibility.
Those are some mighty "powerful" quotation marks...
The intent was to separate them as being each worthwhile bargaining points. In my particular case the foundation was not involved but they didn't know that. I flunked out of more good engineering schools than they could spell. I exploited multiple aspects; superior knowledge, bravado, and urgency. It failed the first time. The bank rejected our original offer. We didn't give up, instead we proceeded as if we were on a 60 day escrow and eventually prevailed.
I thought you'd sold everything in Wrightwood? Surely you haven't bought again yet? I thought that canary was still gasping? I sold all non-personal use real estate as of April 2006. There is still a personal use cabin for skiing and relaxing.
That "canary" is dead, dead, dead. The 92397 zip code is an ex-zip code. The last house Isold there is worth 40% less than April 2006. And get this. The next to last renter there was just served her NOD for the house she "bought" in 2005. THere may be decent deals in 2010 and bargains in 2011 but I'm not willing to project out that far.
Regarding being stoked: At your "distinguished" point in life not being "stoked" occasionally will soon lead to being almost or actually "dead".
I can only hope. Look, I played rugby in college, drove my motorcycle cross country to settle in California, designed, built and ridden in experimental aircraft, rock climbed and scuba dived. I'm not gonna die in my sleep at some extreme age. I admit the "stoked" was blatant recapture of lost youth fantasy but I thought it was obvious from context that I didn't really believe it.
I only ran one black diamond and it was weird at first. Over the two days I fell maybe 3-4 times and only once at speed. That was nasty however. Powder and a caught tip for a full face plant that flipped my goggles, filled them with snow and flipped them back on my face. I didn't rip my chest open so that's progress. I'm actually running short distances spontaneously and for the fun of it. I recommend bypass to anyone. Not.
What have recent sales been like in Wrightwood? Has there even been one recently? I'd agree it's dead but would it? It still seems to be a zombie blindly stumbling along unaware that it is in fact rotting.
Being "dead" after having "lived" is fine. I have two late 50's friends both of whom, around the same time, woke up one morning and thought 'yikes in a couple of years I'll be the big 6-0'. One still comes out with me every weekend to fly down hillsides and has resolved to be even fitter when 60. Barring accidents he's good for decades. The other just got plain scared, 12 months later he weighs 20lbs more, is at the doctors everyweek etc etc. He'll die soon. They were both the same when they started out. Yelling about being stoked may be unbelievable crap but it does you good non-the-less.
Sales at DQNews: http://www.dqnews.com/Charts/Monthly-Charts/LA-Times-Charts/ZIPLAT.aspx Wrightwood 92397 3 $320k
At 3 sales/mo there is a 43 month supply. As I said. Dead. As you suspect these aren't real sales as in willing seller and honest buyer. IIRC in April '06 there were like 14 sales and 62 listings. Now, 3 sales and 150 listings. Listings are a wicked lie at that. One near the cabin has been on the market for 680 days. It was 10% overpriced those 2 1/2 years ago and now is easily 50% overpriced. There are probably 300-400 more who think this way. I can also relate that there were a lot of investors like me in 2005-06 and I was but a handful who still aren't bag holding. The two realtors I dealt with over the decades both have/had at least a dozen each.
It's weird. Some should have caved by now but I swear they are all thinking they can hold on. Lot's think of these as their retirement place or cash out nest egg. Sad. We are going to go back to 1980s yes eighties prices. Most won;t sell but rather end up in the estate.
That's what I suspected but I still have trouble grasping how so many have so little clue. I'm guessing a lot of these folks bought outright or dumped in substantial amounts of cash? Financially the properties aren't killing them just stood there in limbo gently swaying. Hence they can be ignored / left on the market for a headslapping 680 days!
Having fun is good. Do you ride your bicycle yet, Rob?
I'll probably wait until spring for that. For now walking 3 miles 3 times a week on the golf courses.
Do you have a clue what's going on in Sac-town, because I sure as hell don't.
Effin' idjits are thinking 1/3rd each taxes, cuts and debt. More debt! More taxes! They have no clue. They can't even track the loss in revenue. It's over $45b now and the cost of borrowing is skyrocketing. I'm not sure but I think there's a land mine next month. Income taxes have a large stock and investment component. This year regular income is going be offset by massive losses. There's also no acknowlegement of municipal development fees long gone.
How do you really feel Rob? And don't hold back this time!
I live directly across from the open scar. They have no light discipline and you are right, 10,000 plus square feet. Strange people too.
Portrero Rd? You mean the Westlake side?
No, the west valley portion where there's a lot for $56 million and Murdock has his awesome rock collection.
32 comments:
Inbetween breaks from staring at pole dancers and chicks with their norks out in the library on the intertoobs?
Just jealous - I actually have to do work inbetween staring out at Mt Baldy.
In re: your comment on Bubble Info about neg. an REO price down 10 per cent while in escrow
Dawg: I’m about to go into escrow on a short sale and b/c of bank incompetence, don’t give two sh*ts if I get it or not. How did you come back lower in escrow. I feel like knocking off 10% and sending it back through the process again. Let me know. Thanks.
Mccamman,
The way I did it was to "discover" "significant" "impairment(s)" to the property. I also timed it such that this was near the end of the fiscal quarter. In this case it was a crack in the "foundation" which if we hadn't closed would need to be disclosed in any future escrow.
The idea is to go Colombo in them and have "just one more thing."
Just jealous - I actually have to do work inbetween staring out at Mt Baldy.
Funny you should mention that. The cabin retreat is in Wrightwood and Mt. Baldy is nearby. Some of the best skiing in a decade this week through the end of the month at Mt. High. Sounds juvenile but I'm "stoked." When you get older like me just taking off and skiing is a logistic impossibility.
Those are some mighty "powerful" quotation marks...
Yes, this is what I stare at all day long from my office.
Lucky you... in my line of work, I alternate between staring at men's crotches or the bed headboard. :-p
Those are some mighty "powerful" quotation marks...
The intent was to separate them as being each worthwhile bargaining points. In my particular case the foundation was not involved but they didn't know that. I flunked out of more good engineering schools than they could spell. I exploited multiple aspects; superior knowledge, bravado, and urgency. It failed the first time. The bank rejected our original offer. We didn't give up, instead we proceeded as if we were on a 60 day escrow and eventually prevailed.
Lucky you... in my line of work, I alternate between staring at men's crotches or the bed headboard. :-p
Ceramic office fixtures and latex office supplies. Eeeeew.
I thought you'd sold everything in Wrightwood? Surely you haven't bought again yet? I thought that canary was still gasping?
Regarding being stoked: At your "distinguished" point in life not being "stoked" occasionally will soon lead to being almost or actually "dead".
I thought you'd sold everything in Wrightwood? Surely you haven't bought again yet? I thought that canary was still gasping?
I sold all non-personal use real estate as of April 2006. There is still a personal use cabin for skiing and relaxing.
That "canary" is dead, dead, dead. The 92397 zip code is an ex-zip code. The last house Isold there
is worth 40% less than April 2006. And get this. The next to last renter there was just served her NOD for the house she "bought" in 2005. THere may be decent deals in 2010 and bargains in 2011 but I'm not willing to project out that far.
Regarding being stoked: At your "distinguished" point in life not being "stoked" occasionally will soon lead to being almost or actually "dead".
I can only hope. Look, I played rugby in college, drove my motorcycle cross country to settle in California, designed, built and ridden in experimental aircraft, rock climbed and scuba dived. I'm not gonna die in my sleep at some extreme age. I admit the "stoked" was blatant recapture of lost youth fantasy but I thought it was obvious from context that I didn't really believe it.
So Rob, you survived your ski trip to Mammoth? I ran to catch the bus yesterday.
I only ran one black diamond and it was weird at first. Over the two days I fell maybe 3-4 times and only once at speed. That was nasty however. Powder and a caught tip for a full face plant that flipped my goggles, filled them with snow and flipped them back on my face. I didn't rip my chest open so that's progress. I'm actually running short distances spontaneously and for the fun of it. I recommend bypass to anyone. Not.
What have recent sales been like in Wrightwood? Has there even been one recently? I'd agree it's dead but would it? It still seems to be a zombie blindly stumbling along unaware that it is in fact rotting.
Being "dead" after having "lived" is fine. I have two late 50's friends both of whom, around the same time, woke up one morning and thought 'yikes in a couple of years I'll be the big 6-0'. One still comes out with me every weekend to fly down hillsides and has resolved to be even fitter when 60. Barring accidents he's good for decades. The other just got plain scared, 12 months later he weighs 20lbs more, is at the doctors everyweek etc etc. He'll die soon. They were both the same when they started out.
Yelling about being stoked may be unbelievable crap but it does you good non-the-less.
Sales at DQNews:
http://www.dqnews.com/Charts/Monthly-Charts/LA-Times-Charts/ZIPLAT.aspx
Wrightwood 92397 3 $320k
At 3 sales/mo there is a 43 month supply. As I said. Dead. As you suspect these aren't real sales as in willing seller and honest buyer. IIRC in April '06 there were like 14 sales and 62 listings. Now, 3 sales and 150 listings. Listings are a wicked lie at that. One near the cabin has been on the market for 680 days. It was 10% overpriced those 2 1/2 years ago and now is easily 50% overpriced. There are probably 300-400 more who think this way. I can also relate that there were a lot of investors like me in 2005-06 and I was but a handful who still aren't bag holding. The two realtors I dealt with over the decades both have/had at least a dozen each.
That group of 300-400 was what prompted my zombie comment. What will it take to finally blow their brains out and stop the incessant moaning?
It's weird. Some should have caved by now but I swear they are all thinking they can hold on. Lot's think of these as their retirement place or cash out nest egg. Sad. We are going to go back to 1980s yes eighties prices. Most won;t sell but rather end up in the estate.
That's what I suspected but I still have trouble grasping how so many have so little clue. I'm guessing a lot of these folks bought outright or dumped in substantial amounts of cash? Financially the properties aren't killing them just stood there in limbo gently swaying. Hence they can be ignored / left on the market for a headslapping 680 days!
Laura St. property:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Wrightwood/1446-Laura-St-92397/home/3613476
Not only is $299k too much as described but half the square footage is actually a half basement. If this ever sells it will be for less than $120k.
Date Event Price
July 21, 2008 Price Changed $299,000
July 21, 2007 Price Changed $309,000
Apr 28, 2007 Price Changed $329,900
Apr 02, 2007 Listed $344,000
Jan 19, 2001 Sold $120,000
I ain't paying for their retirement.
Ahhhhhh now the penny drops for me - sorry for being slow - new job is eating into my goofing off online time.
Jeez, get your priorities straight. ;-)
Rub it in, ya bastid! :-)
Awww Lou. Don't feel so bad. In a few months you'll be able to brag that you have twice the humidity we could ever hope to muster.
My, what nice mustard greens you have in the foreground of the picture of Chief Peak! You are making me jealous.
What do you think of Tanaka's mega mansion on the hill behind the lemons?
Ugly fuckin' cancer that will now probably spread. The new Protero Road?
Having fun is good. Do you ride your bicycle yet, Rob?
We are going to go back to 1980s yes eighties prices.
Preaching the gospel truth from the hilltop; but will the unwashed masses take heed? Doubtful.
So Rob,
Do you have a clue what's going on in Sac-town, because I sure as hell don't.
How do you really feel Rob? And don't hold back this time!
Seriously, how much space do two people need? That place has to be 10,000 ft2.
Portrero Rd? You mean the Westlake side?
Having fun is good. Do you ride your bicycle yet, Rob?
I'll probably wait until spring for that. For now walking 3 miles 3 times a week on the golf courses.
Do you have a clue what's going on in Sac-town, because I sure as hell don't.
Effin' idjits are thinking 1/3rd each taxes, cuts and debt. More debt! More taxes! They have no clue. They can't even track the loss in revenue. It's over $45b now and the cost of borrowing is skyrocketing. I'm not sure but I think there's a land mine next month. Income taxes have a large stock and investment component. This year regular income is going be offset by massive losses. There's also no acknowlegement of municipal development fees long gone.
How do you really feel Rob? And don't hold back this time!
I live directly across from the open scar. They have no light discipline and you are right, 10,000 plus square feet. Strange people too.
Portrero Rd? You mean the Westlake side?
No, the west valley portion where there's a lot for $56 million and Murdock has his awesome rock collection.
How many vineyards do you own?
I am not terribly impressed with Ojai grapes.
I have a good friend who owns one in Los Olivos. Locally the glassy winged sharpshooter is a major limiting factor.
However, if you are wealthy enough you can plant grapes in Malibu because the laws of nature do not apply to the super wealthy.
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