Now it is time to push the idea beyond speculation to investment time frames. 10 years. Okay, that's lame. I should use 8 years as the typical residency or refinance period. I could also go shorter with recent trends of the same. 10 years is nice and round. Okay, pie are round. [rimshot] 10 years is easy. Feel free to do something harder.
Ten year C-S valuations 2002-2012:
C-S Composite 10 116%
Since 2002 houses have lagged inflation. There's no chance they will beat inflation for at least another 10 years.