Tuesday, November 13, 2012

DataQuick SoCal for October

Actually a little "quick."  Wasn't expecting this for at least a few days.  

Some interesting divergences are showing.  At one point at the very peak of the bubble Ventura County houses were the most (median) expensive surpassing even Orange County.  Now both San Diego and Los Angeles are pulling close while Orange is far ahead.  

Again, don't read too much into a perversely distorted number.  Here's the real take away these days from the monthly DataQuick report and it is a positive:

The typical monthly mortgage payment Southland buyers committed themselves to paying last month was $1,115, down from $1,127 the month before and up from $1,040 a year earlier. Adjusted for inflation, last month’s typical payment was 53.1 percent below the typical payment in the spring of 1989, the peak of the prior real estate cycle. It was 61.6 percent below the current cycle’s peak in July 2007.

Regardless of what happens going forward; prices up or down, interest rates, what this means is housing isn't going to taken from people who made a bad investment bet.  


Rob Dawg said...

Off topic but not worth a post:


A supermajority and every state office. This will prove an interesting experiment in governance. Nowhere to hide but great credit if they do good.

TJandTheBear said...

First, even given today's low interest rates that's not a lot of money financed.

Second, perhaps this'll spell the end of the idiotic argument that the minority party was the cause of all of California's ills. [Nahhhhh, idiots will still be idiots, and we appear to have tons of them in this state.]

Rob Dawg said...

In case JP visits:
"Anyone wondering why we're losing posters?" [on HCN]

No one wonders. It is just not enough people care.


Anyway, the great supply constriction is making its own mini-bubble. Lots of quick turn sales and investor action. The way the various counties have massively diverged makes it clear that non-market forces are being deployed to influence the outcome.

That game stops when borrowed money stops being better than free.

sk2322 said...

"Anyone wondering why we're losing posters?" [on HCN]

It has become a thoroughly unpleasant place to visit, especially in the last year. I gave up on it last week.

Rob Dawg said...

"It has become a thoroughly unpleasant place to visit, especially in the last year. I gave up on it last week."

Kinda like when they took the cyclamates out of Fresca. ;)

Seriously, welcome. I am heavy handed, authoritarian, domineering and throughly unfair. In all the years I must have tossed off 2 (maybe 3) people in 1.4 million visits for irksome behavior.

In addition to being an iron fist I will not tolerate suggestions. So if you have any just speak up and I'll see if i can accommodate you.

I tend to cycle through 5 subjects:
Housing particularly data
Markets loss diversification
California politics/budget

JP said...

> No one wonders.

Yeah, I get that. I was poking the nest hope for the correct response.

Perhaps it's just as well. Our biz is growing by leaps and bounds, so I now have less time for such pursuits anyway.

JP said...


damn blogger system.

Rob Dawg said...

I'll see if I can attract readers sufficiently anal to jump on your every typo. I know just where to look.

Lou Minatti said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Lou Minatti said...

Rob, the Hoocananode people are still talking about you. They are powerless to stop. The boring, pretentious dinner recipes continue, as well as the snarky comments about how stupid everyone is in America except for those living within 10 miles of the California Pacific coast. Expect Duke to make a YouTube video of you that 3 people will see.

Lou Minatti said...

What's funnier is that one of the Hoocananode people is so tedious that he thinks I am you.

Rob Dawg said...

Handsome, brilliant, unwilling to tolerate bullshit, don't suffer fools... Hey it's an easy mistake to make.

Cobradriver said...

"Handsome, brilliant, unwilling to tolerate bullshit, don't suffer fools... Hey it's an easy mistake to make. "

Talking shit on your own blog?




Rob Dawg said...

Awww common Chris. Just having a little fun. I peeked in and saw the forces of darkness lining up against Lou after only a few posts. Then Aladdin Sane/AMF/JD was stupid enough to quote one of Lou's comments that was clearly a take off on the idiots that the Midwest drought was red state retribution and hurricane Isaac a warning to the republican conventioneers.

Cinco-X said...

Is it acceptable to invite others to "the secret forum"? I'd like to invite Eric...I know he was really turned off by the cr@p on HCN...

Rob Dawg said...

Absolutely. Shill too.

I'm surprised energyecon keeps trying over there.

Cinco-X said...

Done..you can invite Shill and energycon...

Rob Dawg said...

Apologies for stale threads. too sick to sit at the big computer. Will try later but no promises.

TJandTheBear said...

Buck up, dude! You need content to build sufficient momentum. ;-)

Rob Dawg said...

This particular bug is the worst thing I've had since open heart bypass.

Anyway the post before this from yesterday shows why CRs crowing about decreased inventory is exactly wrong. If only he had read EN before parroting the NAR. ;)

Rob Dawg said...

Incomplete posts in the hopper:
Ice age mega cycles.
San Bernardino bankruptcy.
Follow on for other cities.
Criminally bad math on the fiscal Ramp Up.
Local real estate opportunities analyzed.
Same for Wrightwood 92397
Bifurcation in the Antelope Valley.
Scary CA supermajority quotes from Sacramento.
Siri, it works.
My existing dual boot Hackintosh.
My next desktop hackintosh build.
Ordering stuff on the Internet. Wow.
And of course newsworthy current events.
All spiced by eye candy.

Lou Minatti said...

Rob, yes, I noticed that a turdlet named Jackdawracy selectively "quoted" one of my posts in order to completely and dishonestly change the message. This is par for the course at HCN now. (Hiya HomeGnome! Go post some more fascinating marshmallow recipes!)

w said...

Time to buy housing stocks or be priced out forever.