Monday, July 17, 2017

Sacramento Dodges the Boom/Bust?

From the SacBee:

Past booms resulted in more than 20,000 homes being built during peak years in the Sacramento region. In 2011, the low point of the housing market’s meltdown, only 2,000 homes were constructed.
Last year, 7,000 single-family homes were built, a 33 percent increase over 2015, according to the latest figures from the University of the Pacific.
The current year is shaping up even better, but housing growth will remain well below the historical average of around 12,000 homes a year, according to the latest UOP forecast. It projects 9,600 houses being built in 2017.
What’s surprising about that figure is that past recovery cycles took from two to seven years to go from bust to boom, when at least 15,000 houses were added each year. The Great Recession technically ended in 2009, eight years ago, yet construction remains relatively low.
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 Equally interesting on the same web page is a video bemoaning the shortage of housing construction workers.

The 9ft trellis extensions are working well. 
 

Read more here: http://www.sacbee.com/news/business/article161499003.html#storylink=cpy
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76 comments:

Lawyerliz said...

Your to mater vines are fabulous.

Rob Dawg said...

Thank you. Have I mentioned the peppers? ;)

I like following Sacramento housing because it has proven a big region canary in the coal mine indicator. If it keeps doing well I won't worry about general conditions. Bill McBride also likes to keep an eye on Sack-o-tomatoes as it is lovingly called.

Lawyerliz said...

No didn't mention peppers.

Lawyerliz said...

We can't think of a place in Florida from which you can extrapolate from meaningfully.

Great Unknown said...

Wow! My tomato plants stopped at 5 feet.

Great Unknown said...

As Cinco says, I'm expecting the recession before 2020. TPTB have got to rid the world of the menace known as Trump. The rest of us will just be collateral damage.

Great Unknown said...

I've been off planting fig and PawPaw trees on the family pine tree farm. I grew the PawPaw trees from seed and propagated the fig trees from cuttings. Trying to improve the property for wildlife.

Lawyerliz said...

We have gone from where it was all Israel all the time, and all housing crisis and Financial info all the time and all communism all the time and all Greece and Italy all the time and now all Trump and all his family together with all Russia all the time.

Yuck

Great Unknown said...

It seems that deer, birds, etc. can't eat loblolly pine.

Lawyerliz said...

Oh, and the Middle East.

Lawyerliz said...

Here in meat space, I'd like to hear a variety of discussions.

Rob Dawg said...

RealWorld™ is tricky stuff. Mrs Dawg really wants Trump gone so bad that everything she reads is impeachable behavior.

Things that worry me in order:
The overreach of the Federal State
The overreach of the 50 States
Public retirement funding
Privacy formally defined and protected
IP protection/compensation
Banking re-regulation and reform
A preemptive regulatory structure for engineered biologicals
Moles
Tech market stock crash
Solar grand minimum
Missing inflation comes back all at once

Rob Dawg said...

A plain old ordinary business cycle recession would be welcome. Trying to avoid a plain old ordinary business cycle recession would be a disaster.

Everyone knows IO do not "short." Not my game and vaguely unethical in a game that is not transparent. Anyway. Is there a way anyone can think of to "short" personal care retail? Nail salons for instance.

EngineerJim said...

>Solar grand minimum

You're concerned about a possible mini-ice age ?
It would halt discussion of global warming in its tracks.

EngineerJim said...

I'm concerned about a black swan event: miscalculation with respect to North Korea, China, Russia.
Particularly North Korea and possible resulting conflagration.

Cinco-X said...

Secondary forest is usually pretty barren. That's one reason that fires are essential to the ecology of the forests...

Cinco-X said...

Gotta agree with dryfly on that last one. SWFs have thrown our ability to predict inflation out the window.

Rob Dawg said...

CAGW is already dead. Just doesn't know it yet. I suspect tenure is the primary cause.

Rob Dawg said...

Black Seans are not predictable on human scales. Best not worry. I suspect the worry is more cumulatively damaging than the event.

Lawyerliz said...

My whole life there has been something horrible to worry about

Lawyerliz said...

Hmmm.

Lawyerliz said...

First, we were all gonna freeze.
Then, we were all gonna starve.
Then we were gonna be exploded by nuclear war.
Then we were gonna be so polluted, we would die.
Race wars would get us.
We would all be hacked, so no legitimate government would be left
An asteroid would hit us.
Trump would destroy the republic. Likewise gerrymandering.
Debt would destroy us.
I'm sure there's more.

None of these have happened. Whose benefit does all these worries promote.?

Great Unknown said...

Hmmm...worries keep blog readership high :-)

Cinco-X said...

Ya... Aren't Sean's usually Irish?

Cinco-X said...

LD;0... The elite

Rob Dawg said...

> " Aren't Sean's usually Irish?"

Hah!

FTR I love "Sean of the Dead." Great movie. Understand. Great in that it cost nothing, was good. By my measure the last 7 Star Wars and all Harry Potter movies do not qualify.

Why am I ranting? George Romero. R.I.P. Night of the Living Dead. Everything after. He and the Star Wars guy should switch places in the public perception.

Rob Dawg said...

Damn! Cinco is going to get a thunderstorm.

I know I know. Whine whine whine. I really do miss switch weather. And it is apparently genetic. My kids even the adult ones never miss a chance to cavort in a downpour.

Lawyerliz said...

The ozone hole. That actually needed fixing and it was.

Lawyerliz said...

We got .4 inch today. Yeay!

Rob Dawg said...

"Climbing a wall of worry."

We are headed towards a market cliff no one ever imagined.

ETFs.

ETFs buy sectors without regard to quality. Dumb dumb dumb. This penalizes the best and rewards the worst.

Hey, as a theoretical question how does that play out?

Lawyerliz said...

Doesn't sound good.

Lawyerliz said...

Hey as to nail salons, short nail polish companies.

Lawyerliz said...

But with high speed traders out there, what difference does it make?

Rob Dawg said...

> "

But with high speed traders out there, what difference does it make?
"

Exactly. In Dawgifornia all transactions are "whiteboard." All. One whiteboard. This wasn't possible even 3 years ago. Now it is necessary.

Great Unknown said...

ETFs -I'm guessing everything gets sold indiscriminately so there should be some really good buys on high quality companies at some point?

EngineerJim said...

Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) did work during the cold war.
However I'm not sure it will work in the case of North Korea.
Even if it doesn't go nuclear, there could be one hell of a mess if NK bombards Seoul.
Remember, we have skin in the game with 28,000 troops in South Korea.

Rob Dawg said...

There will be awesome buys at some point but it won't matter because price and value will no longer track.

Cinco-X said...

It looks like it's sliding off to the North... Wouldn't mind a shower truth be told

Cinco-X said...

Run by Mentats?

Cinco-X said...

Get your 65" flat screen TV now...

Lawyerliz said...

Watch it I'll use my Voice on you
Hehehehe

Lawyerliz said...

The Russians were semi civilized. Not sure of NK.

EngineerJim said...

>Get your 65" flat screen TV now...

Got a Samsung 60" a couple of months ago.
Hope the warranty is good in case of war.
(A little black humor there).

Lawyerliz said...

You think there will be tv, hunh?

Rubygoat said...

I don't think it'll be the West that does anything about NK. I think China will eventually get tired of feeding them and decide to do a little nation building as it grows in world power.

Lawyerliz said...

I think we've asked them to do that. If you want some post apocalypse reading, read Lucifer's Hammer. Meteor not bomb.

Lawyerliz said...

If China does something, Mayne NK will do something very bad to SK.

Rob Dawg said...

"Dune" afficiandos. Who would have ever suspected.

Lawyerliz said...

You shuda node.

Rob Dawg said...

The water of life only shows the likely path not te true path. You shialud have known that.

sm_landlord said...

It is by will alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the juice of sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, the stains become a warning. It is by will alone I set my mind in motion.

TJandTheBear said...

When the Silly Valley bubbles burst they'll take Sac-Town down with them.

California would be Illinois were it not for the windfall cap gains taxes that come out of the bay area.
--
Speaking of TVs... splurged on the LG OLED when we moved to Oregon. F***ing incredible picture; absolutely amazing.

Lawyerliz said...

Oh tj you are no fun! maybe tv is how he passes through the Gateless Gate.

Lawyerliz said...

Kali would never be Illinois. It doesn't have the Bean for one.

Lawyerliz said...

By the way, Fear is the mind killer.

Lawyerliz said...

What will Slate do if it doesn't have Trump care to kick around any more. E
2 more senator have left the pack, even if McCain gets well, which I hoe he does.

Lawyerliz said...

Hope he does.

Rob Dawg said...

> When the Silly Valley bubbles burst they'll take Sac-Town down with them.

California's revenue structure is such that a bad year for the rich is a really bad year for the State. When SillyV resets the smoking hole in the budget will be too large to fill by any revenue mechanism including outright confiscation. It will be the signal for the upper middle class to follow the upper class out of state.

Rob Dawg said...

It is by taxation alone that set my escape in motion. It is by the squeeze of liberals that thoughts acquire speed, the spending acquires money, the confiscation becomes a warning. It is by will alone I set my escape in motion.

Rob Dawg said...

Fry's had a 50" TV for $199 last week. Insane. Think about the cost of putting a piece of plywood 25"x 40" in a sturdy box and shipping it from China to Oxnard and selling it there. That's more than $199 by my accounting. FTR the same goes for Trader Joe's $3 Buck Chuck. A bottle of water in glass with a cork from NorCal to the store using food quality handing methods is that much at least.

Lawyerliz said...

Each use of roomba downstairs results in a handout of sand dirt and cat hair, whether I used it yesterday or not. Just thought you'd like to know. How many days before the dirt entirely fills up the house?

Rob Dawg said...

Karl the Snarl Denniger has it right. One does not discover a blood clot in the brain via a routine checkup. Even allowing the a Senator gets a real checkup you don't do a CT scan unless there is a strong reason. I hope he gets better but the media has clearly fallen for a cover story about a far more serious incident.

Lawyerliz said...

Hahahahaha. He hehehehe.

Rob Dawg said...

Roombas are programmed to make you feel inadequate. There's a secret compartment that dispenses dirt if it cannot find enough on its own.

Lawyerliz said...

Well, at least this puts off legislation. My hope is that this Congess gets absolutely nothing done, and it's distinctly possible.

Lawyerliz said...

Except I wish they'd put the kibosh on those stupid airplanes.

Lawyerliz said...

All those votes against Obama care,.and the Repubs didn't mean any of it.

Lawyerliz said...

You are on a roll, Dawg

Lawyerliz said...

Not necessary in my house!

Rob Dawg said...

And a new post. CoreLogic Loan Performance. Yeah, boring but necessary.

Lawyerliz said...

Surely your cats emit their fair share of fur. The hub has been installing pavers in front which mears he drags in his share of sand and dirt, as does my planting. Heinlein said that there was never a floor that didon't need cleaning. (Door Into Summer). I wish there was some good scifi, not just fantasy.

Rob Dawg said...

Pavers are old dude satisfying. There is labor but also artistry and the result endures. Ask Cinco about my grand river of stone.

Cinco-X said...

What do you despise... By this you are truly known

Cinco-X said...

Hope clouds observation

Cinco-X said...

The people who can destroy a thing, they control it...

Rubygoat said...

bought a 55" westinghouse, doorbuster black friday deal for $120 at Target last year.