Thursday, July 27, 2006

Auger In?

I used to think a nice cleansing price decline would be enough. Now I’m entertaining the necessity of a “fall down, go boom” type of event to just set the stage for a merely painful protracted contraction following. I am honestly worried that papering over the “Event” (my new term) will only make things worse. I thought we could avoid The Event; steady increases in interest rates, gradual tightening in loan requirements, natural end to the business up cycle, public awareness. Now I’m not so sure.

sunsetbeachguy says it even better:

Hey Robert, I think all bears are struggling with what you mention.

Even housing bears that disagree with each other share that concern.

I think we may be in for a harder ass-whupping than we anticipated.

But that is OK, because my beating will be much more tolerable than an Fb’s.

For the record I am not a bear. I'll be out in front on the upside. I just don't see an upside anywhere in the near future and don't see any reason to see an upturn in a timeframe measured in years. The next 6 months are a time where we discover how bad things are. That will enable me to predict how bad things could get.

1 comment:

SmellyPogoStick said...

Silly rabbit, property values ALWAYS go up 10% a year. There is no alternative.