Monday, December 07, 2009

Let's Play Does It Float?

Not that there's any open bodies of water anywhere near Victorville but there sure are more and more possible signs of a reasonable real estate investment market.
How would this one pencil out?

13752 Bluegrass:
Year Built: 2003 4 total bedroom(s) 2 total bath(s)
2 total full bath(s) Approximately 2277 sq. ft.
Fireplace in the Den 3 car garage
Central air conditioning Lot is 7205 sq. ft.

Decent house, not a mess, established neighborhood. Taxes don't appear too high.

Here's what the whacky z-people think they know.

$70k purchase, $5k costs. You'll need $20,000 and a $55,000 mortgage at ~6%. Payment $340. Taxes $160. I'd put at least $100 toward upkeep. It's gonna cost ya $600/mo to own this place plus $100/month lost opportunity cost of tying up $20k. These are tough times and so I'd have to factor 15% vaccancy. You'd need to rent for $825/month.

Yes, it floats.

Now for a rant. You all know the z data is hopelessly inaccurate. No news there but check out this bit:

That's Bing™ on top with a 2009 Copyright of 2008 NAVTEO material. These houses were built in 2003 no doubt these images are 2001 or earlier. Abusive application of supposed copyrights is getting entirely out of control.


Mr. Outspoken said...

I think this is the first time you have said a house was at an investor-worthy price. Does this mark the bottom?

(Cue marked bottom picture)

Rob Dawg said...

You'll get your bottom. Patience is rewarded.

Check out the house next door:
Sale History
05/08/2007: $400,000
07/23/2004: $368,000
10/27/2003: $280,500

Don't you just know $70,000 is gonna hurt.

W.C. Varones said...

Victorville? Of course it floats! You know how much meth you could cook in that place? You'd have it paid off inside of six months.

Lost Cause said...

Victorville is the poster child for the ready-to-be-bulldozed exurban wasteland. Maybe if the city had a high spped rail link to LA it could escape this fate.

I have only one bit of advice for real estate investors -- buy anything located near mass transit.

H Simpson said...


You ought to know better than to upset the BORG about Bing.

Besides, that is not 2001. It is 2012 after the banks give up, the houses are stripped, and nature begins to return the area to a desert.

Amazing how the BORG can do such advanced software r&d, yet they cannot stop a 16 yo from hacking their o/s for bragging rights.


Sun said...

In terms of the "bottom", I think you are overlooking the $8,000 tax credit.

I know two recent successful home buyers, and a third that just made a sweet offer...and not-a-one of them is qualified. For people without a lot of money, $8K sounds like a sweet deal! Besides the market is "turning"!

Oh S#&t! What happens when this expires in December?? Oh nevermind, it's been extended. Problem solved!!

w said...

What do you think it cost to build this place? That is another meme that needs to die...that prices do not fall below replacement cost.

By the way I approve of Mandi Collins.