Sunday, September 10, 2017

Precision vs Accuracy & Considering Confidence


The weather people are doing their best.  They are doing good.  They aren't perfect.  This time they are even on the edge of being called wrong.  That is not criticism.  It is the nature of both science and prediction.  The upper picture shows the Thursday projection and the storm now is not where it was supposed to be or when it was supposed to be.  Amazing job nonetheless.  We need more GEOS satellites.  We need more funding for weather research. 

30 comments:

prairiedog said...

The eye traveled directly over my ex's house. He and his wife evacuated at the last minute. He would have stayed but left because of his wife. Their house is on stilts on Big Pine Key. He said his 80 year old neighbor woman with 20 cats stayed...also a neighbor with a cement bunker stayed.

Rob Dawg said...

"Can't take your eyes away" waiting to see what's left of the buildings on the Florida Keys.

Unknown said...

the video coming out of Marco Island is pretty incredible..

Lawyerliz said...

Darwin award candidates.

LBD said...

Made it to Laughlin NV for a couple of weeks. No shut off for the ABS, no dash light loaded the front brakes till they smoked in city driving. Next AM the light came on and upon inspection found the LR wheel speed sensor melted and hanging. Disconnected it and all is well but the light is on. Jake brake works great! When I get home will pull codes and decide if I will even fix it. I know how to drive very well with out ABS.

These hurricanes are not drinking games. Scary more to come.

dilbert dogbert said...

Hey Liz! How's Irma treating you?

Lawyerliz said...

Peaked out and saw some vertical rain?

Lawyerliz said...

Fine so far. Our hotel in Gainesville still has power. Most of Miami out. Some of Merritt out. Going back Wednesday. Wind at our house as reorder tolerable. Are flood warnings but we are fairly far in and on my inch alp. Tell outsider I said.hi.

Lawyerliz said...

Supposed to be worst here from midnite to 5. Miss you dilbert.

Lawyerliz said...

Same as islands. Destruction pretty much looks the same, except for the difference between cinderblock and frame

Lawyerliz said...

Amen to dawg. Several amens. Weather is HARD.

Lawyerliz said...

Good night!

Rob Dawg said...

Sleep tight don't let the sea fleas bite!

Rob Dawg said...

Because of Hurricane Irma, the NFL's Miami Dolphins will spend this week practicing in Oxnard.

The team is playing the Los Angeles Chargers next Sunday (9-17) at Stub Hub Center in Carson.

Oxnard officials say the Dolphins practices will be at the River Ridge facility normally used for pre-season practice by the Dallas Cowboys, but they will be closed to the public.

Lawyerliz said...

Is this some kind of joke?

Rob Dawg said...

You made it!

Lawyerliz said...

??
Miami aND Miami Beach are closed off until Tuesaday. Airport flooded and damaged.

Unknown said...

It's supposed to be more than a month before power is restored in Florida. There are still parts of Texas that don't have power after Harvey. Why would anyone stay?

Unknown said...

but they will be closed to the public.

will the "Patriot cam" be operational?? ;<)

Lawyerliz said...

Some people are eager to leave the hotel. Weird
Hope they don't head for Miami.
Jose circled around completely,but doesn't seem to be coming here.
There is a broken water main which supplies our house on Merritt Island.

Unknown said...

life without internet would be the most difficult transition..

Lawyerliz said...

This is something we all did without 15 years ago.

Lawyerliz said...

Backdoor infrastructure improvement! Just around Houston but ALL of the state of Florida. Hahaha Repub party.

Unknown said...

yeah..it's not like we have any hope of paying back the $20 trillion we already owe..may as well keep borrowing until the creditors wise up

Unknown said...

there's already been 74 federal disasters declared in the US this year (before Irma hit)...

Lawyerliz said...

Oroville federal?

Unknown said...

yes..Oroville was one

Rob Dawg said...

New post.

Rob Dawg said...

Chicago is a disaster but that won't be on the list.

dilbert dogbert said...

Liz,
Daughters St Pete house reported in good shape. Lucky for once. What is the state telling folks about returning?