Housing Bubble, credit bubble, public planning, land use, zoning and transportation in the exurban environment. Specific criticism of smart growth, neotradtional, forms based, new urbanism and other top down planner schemes to increase urban extent and density. Ventura County, California specific examples.
Thursday, January 25, 2007
The recent housing news hasn't been terrible thus a spate of upbeat outlooks. I don't believe it in my gut but my gut isn't a smart investor so I'll wait for the Feb DOM and inventory numbers.
4 comments:
Anonymous
said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
In my day I get housing information from about 15 different sources...
and this is my perception of it
one side you have NAR's (realtors) putting an ubeat spin on it oblivious to any bubble or Housing correction as they call it.
Another side you have homebuilders admitting to it and the numbers support it with the housing starts, inventory etc.
Another side is that people simply cant afford the home prices right now.
Another side is commercial developers building, and then building some more ..I was reading several articles about builders building now for the 2010 market (high rise condo's)
and then you have the cold hard facts of the foreclosures and projected foreclosures going on right now from all of these lenders doing no doc loans, 50 year mortgages, and 125 percent financing.
I would have to surmise that the market is far from done correcting itself..and the bubble is still bursting.
...Lately, developers have been innovating on the condo concept like it's a Starbucks beverage. Grande? Foam or no foam? Soy, 2 percent, caramel, peppermint, raspberry? Most of the new products -- like the fractional condominiums of the Ritz Carlton and the ultra-luxury condos planned for Rincon Hill -- capitalize on the abundant resources of the richest of the rich... AKA Surreal Estate or how I discovered Casey and his entropic lifestyle. http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2007/01/26/carollloyd.DTL&feed=rss.surrealestate
The recent housing news hasn't been terrible thus a spate of upbeat outlooks. I don't believe it in my gut but my gut isn't a smart investor so I'll wait for the Feb DOM and inventory numbers.
4 comments:
The problem with the current outlooks is that they keep using the median numbers, which, IMHO, is not a true indicator of what's really going on.
-jbjbj
In my day I get housing information from about 15 different sources...
and this is my perception of it
one side you have NAR's (realtors) putting an ubeat spin on it oblivious to any bubble or Housing correction as they call it.
Another side you have homebuilders admitting to it and the numbers support it with the housing starts, inventory etc.
Another side is that people simply cant afford the home prices right now.
Another side is commercial developers building, and then building some more ..I was reading several articles about builders building now for the 2010 market (high rise condo's)
and then you have the cold hard facts of the foreclosures and projected foreclosures going on right now from all of these lenders doing no doc loans, 50 year mortgages, and 125 percent financing.
I would have to surmise that the market is far from done correcting itself..and the bubble is still bursting.
...Lately, developers have been innovating on the condo concept like it's a Starbucks beverage. Grande? Foam or no foam? Soy, 2 percent, caramel, peppermint, raspberry? Most of the new products -- like the fractional condominiums of the Ritz Carlton and the ultra-luxury condos planned for Rincon Hill -- capitalize on the abundant resources of the richest of the rich...
AKA Surreal Estate or how I discovered Casey and his entropic lifestyle.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2007/01/26/carollloyd.DTL&feed=rss.surrealestate
Post a Comment