Over on CalculatedRisk there was another flare up of California bashing. Look, I admit "we" are totally screwed. We were warned and there just weren't enough right thinking people to make a difference. Now it is time to reap the punishment we so richly deserve. A few personal observations and some budget analysis:
• The State is too damn big to be governable. Not just 36 million people but half of them more than 400 miles away from the Capitol.
• Single party control. For the record, it doesn't matter which party.
• Political impotence. On the national level CA is no longer a battleground state. The Congressional delegation is partisan, incompetent and uncoordinated. It doesn't help that our Federal representation is some 1/4th what some regions enjoy. The Electoral College and 435 seat lower house allocations weren't meant to address 36 million population states.
•
Okay, budget time. First the analysis of Tom McClintock last June:
In order to produce a genuine balanced budget with a minimum prudent reserve, additional spending reductions of at least $2.893 billion would have to be made, bringing general fund spending to $100.067 billion – or $8.352 billion MORE than we spent as recently as FY 2005-06.
Recent? Not in the least. the Cal-Tax Library has more than a decade's worth of bad fiscal policy archived.
Is it any wonder that Tom McClintock is referred to sometimes as the shadow governor? Here he explains almost a month ago what "Da Governator" just now is discovering is an emergency. Excerpt:
10/12/07 - The Sacramento Bee -- which was the most vitriolic of the newspapers when I warned last summer that the budget was dangerously out of balance and filled with accounting gimmickry, wishful thinking and outright deceptions -- today reported that the budget is now, well, dangerously out of balance. I’m sure they’re shocked-just-shocked.
The Bee reports that based on shortfalls in revenues from the “Big Three” taxes (income, sales and corporate) next year’s deficit is now estimated around $8.6 billion, and this year’s budget could be $2.5 billion below projections.
Here's the money-quote™: The state’s cash position has deteriorated by $9.086 billion over the last 12 months.
Billions seem so dry. Instead think of a billion as $100 per family. Yeah right, as if California spreads tax burdens. Got that? Every family is on the hook for an extra $1000 BEFORE the onset of the fiscal crisis.
Looks like my first guess 07-08 were right. Revenues about $97b against projections of $108b and original planned expenditures of $111b. The next big milestone is Dec 10th when property taxes are due. I predict "shock and awe." Nobody saw this coming.
Yes, California is screwed. Try to say something else as well in the comments.
46 comments:
First to remind you all of the koicast tonight.
And yet for every dollar in taxes Californians give to Washington DC, we only get back $0.80. I realize our House delegation's ineptitude is the reason, but a nice "Thank You" now and then from the other states would be nice.
This year it is 80¢. The 19 year average is closer to 76¢. Only one year in the last 1 was it even and that was for some crap like the LA subway payments being held for corruption investigations or some such.
Payback will be a bitch. If California gets squeezed any more there's gonna be some seriously pissed off reactions.
Splitting the state has been discussed often. LA and SF are the two economic centers - Sacto is pretty much an "also ran" city, silly for it to be the capitol.
One question that always comes up - where to do the split? Some I know from far Northern CA want the line NORTH of Sacto.
I've always favored something just South of Monterey - right below Big Sur. We could flip a coin and the loser would have to keep the Bakersfield / Fresno area.
I have a very rational plan for 5 separate States. None would be small by any of the standards of the existing States. If necessary we could also "combine" some of the other miserable exucses for statehood we've already go to keep Congressional numbers low. Two Dakotas? GMAFB.
> I have a very rational plan for 5
> separate States.
That way, you don't get stuck with Fresno either. :)
I'll take Fresno just so long as Yosemite & Kings Canyon/Sequoia are included.
And for many of you, here is where your fresh food is grown.
State splitting should include at least states for LA, Central Valley, Bay Area, and Northern Calif. Unfortunately, I do not see any driving interest in splitting the state. As a Sacramentan, I would much prefer to be part of North California over Central Valley.
Quick! Call those GOOGLE guys and have them exercise more options!
The problem with California is that the closet socialist mentality (or open socialist mentality in SF) has become deeply entrenched. The steady growth of entitlements has failed to slow down even as the state's revenues have slowed down. Even worse, the growth in recent immigrants, who are inevitably net consumers of benefits, has dramatically increased the stress on the social benefits system.
On the plus side, this will all get resolved at some point. On the minus side, the resolution will likely be as a result of a massive financial disaster. While I don't think CA will go bankrupt, it will be very hard pressed financially (and some of the municipalities will be going the Orange Country route.) On the plus side, a massive financial slowdown will result in fewer impoverished immigrants coming in. On the minus side, the existing impoverished immigrants aren't likely to go anywhere, even if their jobs disappear.
California's a beautiful place, but I won't be returning to the state of my birth until the smoke clears and the dust settles, but until then there will be many long, hard years. Looking back, people will realize that 2006 and 2007 were just the start.
My 2 centavos (re-post from CR):
Basically... agree with the Dawg.
Klownifornia's secular economic troubles are deep, self-inflicted and intractable. We have a state government dominated by corrupt incumbents (mostly Democrats) in virtually every corner, and endlessly re-elected by myopic bonehead voters. The problem is, people here are conditioned to wanting (and getting) something for nothing.
Your typical Klownifornian is a NIMBYists that doesn't want "development", especially of the working-class affordable kind, but DOES want McMansions built in every fire-prone canyon and every flood-prone floodplain. He doesn't want "growth" or "overcrowding", but refuses to contain illegal immigration, which he considers to be "racist". He decries "poverty" and high cost-of-living but refuses to "give his house away" for less than $600/sft. He decries political corruption, but refuses to demand a full accounting of tax money already being spent, or vote for a different party. He wants more government entitlements, but wants someone else to pay for it --preferably his own children and grandchildren (see Prop. 13 and tens of $billions in new bond measures).
We have seen the enemy and it is us.
And yet for every dollar in taxes Californians give to Washington DC, we only get back $0.80.
But I thought progressive Blue states were all about progressive taxation? Since it is important to be progressive and have progressive taxation so that progressive politicians can redistribute money from Those Who Must Pay Their Fair Share to those who aren't born wealthy, why should Blue State Californians object?
You can play this game ad infinitum. Some California counties get back a lot more in federal handouts then they pay in taxes. A handful of coastal counties account for the bulk of tax revenues sent to DC for national redistribution. Some Texas counties pay out far more in federal taxes than they get back in handouts.
Meanwhile, a Californian who makes what I do pays the same amount that I pay. Well, less actually. We don't have a state income tax and because a nice middle-class home costs less than $150k I don't get any tax write-offs. In fact, you might say that average Texans are subsidizing California homoaners.
Does anyone here read Scott Burns? He agrees with me.
The reason California generates so much federal tax revenue is not because you are paying a higher percentage, it's because you have more super-wealthy people and more big corporations to tax than do states like Mississippi and North Dakota. Small things in sparsely-populated states can also skew the figures. An Air Force base in North Dakota means a lot more to that state than it would to California.
We have a state government dominated by corrupt incumbents (mostly Democrats) in virtually every corner, and endlessly re-elected by myopic bonehead voters.
The problem is California has handed over the keys to government union employees. This drives everything, including... dare I say it? The criminal justice system. I wonder how much money flows from taxpayers, to workers throughout the CJS, to unions, then to "law and order" politicians?
Education. Traffic. Prisons. Medical care. You name the issue, I bet you'll see the dirty hand of government unions on it. I cannot stand this racket.
Seems like a ploy to get more than two senate seats :)
Two more? Eight more.
PC Pacifica California SF pennisula and environs.
MC Centro California Central Valley, mountains.
AC Alta California Northern counties.
CC Costa California Ventura to Monterey - Tehachapis/Coastal Range.
LA Angeles California All the Miserable urban crap, social problems,
etc. LA, Orange, Riverside, Antelope Valley, San Berdoo.
SC From Sud California San Diego, Imperial and environs.
-------- OR --------------
WC Wacko California. SF pennisula and environs.
CC Centro California. Central Valley, mountains.
PC Pacifica. Northern counties.
Q. [What's your like of separation between Wacko &
Pacifica, and Wacko & Costal?]
A. Marin can go either way... Don't go there!
LA All the Miserable urban crap, social problems, etc. LA, Orange,
Riverside, Antelope Valley, San Berdoo.
SB Coastal California. Ventura to Monterey - Tehachapis/Coastal Range.
Q. I still think Ventura belongs in L.A. :-)
A. (serious for a minute) LA thinks that. They need the good air, landfill sites, growth expansion, etc. If you were to look at aerial photos it would be obvious that there WERE reasons why Vta did not become like Orange County or San Berdoo. You can actually see the border from the air.
In fact linear proximity is the only factor that puts Vta in LA's sphere of influence.
SC Sudo (Pronounced Pseudo) California. San Diego, Imperial and environs.
For all the lighthearted description above; the areas have geographic,
historical, economic justification. We need more Senators, representative
state govt, federal clout, regional solutions, etc.
I know this derived from the concept that city transportation boundaries
are ineffective but the conclusion is inescapable. CA is too big.
Interesting thing in the Texas annexation treaty - Texas has the right to
split into 5 states.
Cool, I can count on your vote? Oh, wait us Coastals don't need nuthin
from you Angelenos or are you a Centro?
Each state would be among the top 20 most populous, largest, richest
states in the union. The idea that the Ventura County Superintendent of
Schools needs more votes to win than Senators from Montana is weird to say
the least. When people refer to LA County Supes as their Lordships
without smiling and they each represent multiple congressional districts
something is wrong with CAs political structure. Transportation is one
symptom of political dysfunction.
Well the flag design is going to be a problem, how to get 55 stars to fit or 60 if Texas splits up too. Maybe we can have big stars and little stars?
Stars can go into a lot of different formations.
Alternative is to condense the various filler states. Any state that has two senators and a single rep should be forced to merge with its neighbors until they gather sufficient population to be a "real" state. :)
on the plus side, if CA was split up then it wouldn't have so much weight in the electoral college.
Don't forget that some politicians want DC to be a state so that people living there will be "represented," of course. My solution is to simply add it to Maryland as another county. But the pols would never, ever go for that.
OT: Staff changes announced by Damion. Plus, subtle graphic.
Lou, yeah, the short bus is suppose to make us believe that Casey is moving on. But we'll just have to wait until they let us know exactly what is going on.
Okay...who was the joker that wished a happy Tuesday?
In connection with securing my Merchant Mariner No-Fee Passport, I drove from Winchester to the DoD Passport/Visa office in Crsytal City,(next to national Airport), and did not have to.
The ladies there were just the nicest folks in the world, so I gave them the State Department's own Foreign Affairs Manual entry concerning oily bums like me:
http://72.14.205.104/search?q=cache:hFCJIrVISIgJ:www.state.gov/documents/organization/86785.pdf+Merchant+Seamen+passport&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=7&gl=us&ie=UTF-8
(7FAM1311G;j;(1);(b)...in case you're interested)
so that they can quote Chapter and Verse of Scripture back at the Passport Fiends in the Eternal Kampf of Bureaucracy.
DoD mailed me over to 19th Street NW, and while Dupont Circle would be a gas for people of the gay, lesbian and transgender persuasions, I can attest that the parking sucks...and is expensive.
But I got to the All-Powerful...the Buddha of Passport Issuance, the nice fellow behind the THICK Lexan plate who handles Congressional and "Other" passports.
(I presume that the bullet-proof glass he sits behind is for the Congressional patrons of his window.)
He began asking me about the sea.
And y'know, i'm looking at the "armored veal-fattening pen" lit by flourescent lights that he calls his "workplace"...and I couldn't not tell him of the wide and wonderful world that awaited him in the bilges of ocean-going vessels.
(I'm getting my passport tomorrow...1 day turnaround...suck on it, BITCHES!!!)
Then I joined the throng of government workers and glorified tax-parasites dragging their miserable carcasses down Constitution, over the Potomac, and idling their way Westward over the Blue Ridge Mountains like some Trail of Tears migration equipped with internal combustion engines.
Yesterday, I did Winchester to Norfolk and back.
Tomorrow I get the pleasure of Baltimore AND Dupont Circle once again.
Damned glad I'll have a fuckin' passport.
Oh...FoCloHelpBook is on "hold".
DAMN!
Holy Cow...lookit the size of that HTML!
Sorry Rob, I thought it was just a government document link, not NORAD missile launch code.
DOUBLE DAMN!
The FoCloHelp Slots Game is gone TOO!
Whatever will we do to while away the hours of the loooong winter nights ahead?
I'm going to take up drinking.
Happy time at FHB. Can we expect some leaked reveals here at EN?
Can we expect some leaked reveals here at EN?
You realize that with this comment you've just started another thread over at CaseyHaterz, right? :-)
Followers of the saga need to lighten up. Unless I am mistaken, the only true "insiders" now are Nigel and Damion.
BTW, I agree with the caller saying that Casey referring to himself in the third person was mega creepy.
Hey, I'm #1 on Google for "foreclosure help book". Maybe I should start running ads for Damion's book.
We are sometimes a bunch of lamers. Who picked 2 weeks in the Damion under the bus contest?
The 54 State solution makes for a sweet flag of 9x6 or 53 States alternating rows of 8 & 7 stars.
It's always kind of funny how people pick on my home state of North Dakota. I must say I did enjoy the college application book at B&N with the chapter title "So You're not from North Dakota".
Anyways, we deserve the money as a state after all the cancer we are all dying from (nuclear missile silos). Dirty little goberment secret. Shh.... can't talk about it. Never happened. By the way, if you are looking for a really interesting home, there are 100s to 1000s of empty underground silos you can purchase. Some people are building homes down there.
At 1:51 PM, Peripheral Visionary said...
The problem with California is that the closet socialist mentality (or open socialist mentality in SF) has become deeply entrenched.
Yeah, but the reason it can't be challenged is a Republican party that refuses to become a realistic opposition. I'm ex-SF, and am tired of the wingnuts on both sides; but the change will have to come from the right. Until the Republicans follow their Governor [wildly popular everywhere on earth except in the Republican party here] back to the middle, they'll have to content themselves running school boards and counties.
DCRogers
Jake:
" By the way, if you are looking for a really interesting home, there are 100s to 1000s of empty underground silos you can purchase. Some people are building homes down there."
I think I ran across a site about that once.
If y'all were really on the ball, you'd build Very High Security Federal Prisons out of 'em.
Who needs Guantanamo when you have Minot?
At the very least, you could let New York City pay you for the privilege of filling 'em up with their garbage, the way we use abandoned coal mines here in Vajanya.
At the very least, you could let New York City pay you for the privilege of filling 'em up with their garbage, the way we use abandoned coal mines here in Vajanya.
Actually you wouldn't believe all how often people want to make North Dakota the garage dump and/or nuclear waste site for the US. Then there's the green people who want to kick out all the people and make the whole state a natural prairie. Gotta pay those carbon credits!
The answer is simple. Secession. It's time for California Republic to release itself from servitude to the United States of America. The USA is a drag on California. We are one of the most powerful economies in the world and image how much more powerful without the USA hanging around our necks.
The US is a deteriorating nation. Its dollars headed to parity with the Mexican peso. Its image forever tarnished and distrusted. California can do so much better and deserves to be a sovereign nation. We are held back in so many ways. California can be the most progressive and enriched nation ever known to man if only the people take a stand and declare independence from the corrupted and dying United States of America.
Jake:
"Then there's the green people who want to kick out all the people and make the whole state a natural prairie."
Hmmm, herds of naked eco-Yuppies and other assorted Marxist neo-Luddites wandering over the prairie, huh?
I'm thinking "Game Park".
Hunt 'em down with bow and arrow from electric hybrid ATV's.
(A nice blend of traditional Indian methods married with modern technology).
The US is a deteriorating nation. Its dollars headed to parity with the Mexican peso. Its image forever tarnished and distrusted. California can do so much better and deserves to be a sovereign nation. We are held back in so many ways. California can be the most progressive and enriched nation ever known to man if only the people take a stand and declare independence from the corrupted and dying United States of America.
So... what will you do about food and water?
Bilgeman:
(A nice blend of traditional Indian methods married with modern technology).
Actually, we prefer Native Indian or Native American. So, let's hope they wear those rainbow tie-dye shirts, or does that make it too easy?
Oh, and if one more Global Warming person comes to my door, I swear I'm buying a paint ball gun!!! Isn't there some rules about not bugging people after a certain time? But at least the Clean Water Action lady didn't realize I was laughing at her.
I am so afraid of next year.
I think California secdeding is a great idea. Of course, there's that one small issue of figuring out what rate California pays for water from the Colorado River and what rate California pays for the power it imports from Nevada, Utah, and Arizona.
On a more serious note, California doesn't have more Senators because the Senate was not designed to be fair. Do you seriously think that if you pointed out to the Founding Fathers that they had set up an institution which provides disproportionate influence for small states that they'd get this really surprised look on their face? "Wow, Thomas, I never realized! . . . George, did you know about this? You neither? Well, we've got to fix this!" If the Founding Fathers had wanted a second proportional representation body, it would have been the House of Representatives Part II, not the Senate.
The Senate was *designed* to give thinly-populated rural areas disproportionate influence relative to their heavily populated neighbors. Note that the Senate was also designed to balance influence between regions, specifically between the North and the South, although in recent years it has balanced influence between the U.S.' four (or five or six) major regions.
If you want to take a historicity argument, you could argue for a breakup of California into its two distinct regions, along the lines of the West Virginia/Virginia breakup (of course that was Civil War precipitated, but you know what I mean.) But that would not be between the urban areas--it would be between the rural center together with the far north and the heavily populated coast. But, of course, the possibility of breaking up the Democrats' I-don't-know-how-many automatic electoral college votes will never fly in Congress, as will the thought of separating the net-producing regions of California from the net-consuming regions (that would be the center and the north and San Jose for "producing", and the rest, but especially the coast, for "consuming".)
lou minatti said...
[California can do so much better and deserves to be a sovereign nation.]
So... what will you do about food and water?
I admit we may have to purchase either South Dakota or Kansas for our diet to remain unchanged but that pales in comparison to the impact to the remaining part of the US from losing California.
Tom McClintock is proof of what is wrong with Kalifornia. The state can still produce good people, and nurture them for a while, but when it comes to doing something meaningful with their abilities, the state wants nothing to do with it.
As for Central and Bay Area Kalifornia being the producers, think again. The destruction of aerospace makes it look that way, especially through the late 90s, but the tech destruction has meant that in the 2010s the only producing part will be the central valley.
The remaining tech in the Bay Area is equivalent to Hollywood in terms of "production," so if you consider one to be producing, then you must consider the other as well. Personally, I think both are past their prime and the cosmetic surgery is only making them appear grotesque, not younger.
There's a lot wrong with California but it truly is a hard working and productive state. Not just the salad bowl of the Central Valley but Tech, Biotech, financials, and yes manufacturing. I live about 5 miles from Haas one of the largest automated machine tool manufacturers anywhere. 15 miles in the other direction is the BMW research/design lab down the street from Amgen. I'd be able to pass one of the worlds' largest solar cell companies and the Volvo design labs to get there. And that's just near me in one of those "consuming" coastal counties which BTW lists agriculture as its #1 industry even though in addition to the above we have an active oil industry and Countrywide and tourism as well. Not bragging just trying to put perspective on the common misperceptions of California.
Of course, there's that one small issue of figuring out what rate California pays for water from the Colorado River and what rate California pays for the power it imports from Nevada, Utah, and Arizona.
And Washington. Bear in mind that all that power is generated by regulated utility companies. If enough people complain about paying higher rates to support a foreign country, the legislatures of those states can and will cut off electricity exports. There's been some agitation along those lines in the past. I'm not exactly sure what stopped it. The interstate commerce clause? That won't apply if California is no longer a state.
Rob: "There's a lot wrong with California but it truly is a hard working and productive state."
:D
Come now Rob, some of us have worked in California. At one client site I worked at in San Diego, the unofficial working hours were 9 to 4. Sorry, but on the hard-working scale, the East is way ahead of California, or much of the west for that matter.
That said, California still has a big--but badly neglected--agricultural industry, as well as a large--but again neglected--natural resources industry. Tech is still there, but aside from biotech most of tech is expanding outside the state, and simply maintaining their footprint in the state, or even cutting back. Manufacturing and R&D are still there, but they're relics of the Cold War era, and under a lot of pressure from California's exhorbitant costs of doing business.
If that's starting to sound a lot like Europe, it's not a coincidence. But hey, California still has the movie industry and the tourism industry--hope you like making $8/hr working on sets or waiting tables.
The assertion has always been that California really has a strong economy, that it hasn't just been a shell economy propped up by the Housing Bubble. Looks like we're about to find out if that's true.
Food and water? See, this is one of the common misconceptions and misguided assumptions about California.
For over 50 consecutive years California has been the #1 agricultural producing state in the US. California is the largest dairy producer in the US. That includes cheese and nearly 20% of the nations milk supply.
California is the #1 agricultural exporter in the US. That includes nuts, fruits, vegetables, even cotton. And many other products.
There is nothing California "needs" from the United States. We produce much more food than we would ever need. Anything grown in the other 49 states can be grown somewhere in the diverse state of California if need be.
Water? We have plenty of water resources in California. We also lay claim to much of the Colorado river. Even without that river we have plenty of supply. It just needs to be tapped. Do you have any idea how much snowfall California gets every year? The average person isn't aware that in much of even southern California, you can see snow capped mountain half of the year. It's not all sun and sand here. California is the most diverse terrain of any state in the US. No other state comes close in the diversity of terrain, climate, altitude and many other factors. Ignorants love to pigeon-hole California but it's a futile, impossible task.
There is NOTHING California needs from the other 49 states. Without the burden of the USA, California can become a much more progressive and nirvana-like nation that would be looked on with envy(moreso than now) by the rest of the world.
And before anyone rushes to judgement, I've only lived in California for 7 years. I have lived in Kansas, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Alabama and Montana previously. From remote backwoods to one of the largest cities in the US.
The day I landed in LAX, spent the night in Irvine, and the next day soaking in sun in Laguna, I knew I had finally found my home. Everything I could ever need or want has been found in California. Since being here I have realized that California has been held back so much by the USA and has been defiled and treated like a cheap slut by the the USA. Most of the hate directed towards California stems from jealously and envy. Most of the common slams against California have no basis in reality. The sooner California ditches the USA, the sooner it can become a model nation for the rest of the world.
Anonymous, I know what you're smoking.
PV,
Agriculture in CA is neglected? This is the center of everything. If there is a new product or service for Ag it starts HERE. I often think about growing vegetables in another state and the biggest problem I see is distribution followed by access to products and equipment. If it is not grain or cattle most of the country is not set up with the resources we have.
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