IMO CRE is so overbuilt there is no way to calculate the correct amount. Not only too much but in radically wrong places. It isn't enough to extrapolate from the time before the bubble. By the time we finish burning off excess square footage the demographics will have also shifted. I am also of the opinion (with no supporting data whatsoever) that returning to trend will be nowhere near enough. I look at some of the actual brick and mortar layouts and don't understand what Sam's Club is going to do with the 4000 square feet currently devoted to just flat screen televisions. The real pull is going to be ultra low cost basis operating cost stores that will flood the vacated spaces. My regular reader knows I am real cheap. I shop thrift stores and hesitate to buy polo shirts costing more than $2.50. Many of these places went quietly out of business due to real estate pressures. Not just lease rates but if the charity owned land the CD returns from the sale proceeds could often do more good for their charitable work than operating the store.
Big changes coming. Welcome to Craigslist America.
31 comments:
Welcome to Craigslist America.
I don't see any Stickley furniture on Craigslist yet (although there's a lot of it on eBay).
Second First in a row?
FIRST among equals says:
I always thought that a store like Sam's (and Wal-Mart) would know how to make it through a crunch, given how frugal they are with their money, and how the squeeze as much efficiency as they can out of their supply lines.
Aww crap. That's what I get for crafting a thoughtful reply.
SECOND among equals now...
My Sitemeter shows identical login and page times. We'll have to call this murst a draw unless you want Casey to break the tie. Ewwww.
Part of the problem with Walmart/Sam's is their business model and their expansion model. Business modelwise they depend upon a cheap supply chain with as much expense offloaded to suppliers. That ain't working in $5.24 diesel land. Expansionwise they depend upon developer/municipal subsidies. Empty pockets there. Finally their big profit products are crap and Asian supplied. Dollar woes and shipping and emerging Asian priorities are killing that too.
My regular reader knows I am real cheap. I shop thrift stores and hesitate to buy polo shirts costing more than $2.50.
I consider myself a regular reader, but I did not know you were that cheap, Dawg. Good for you. And here I thought I was thrifty by shopping at Ross.
Rob, I am amazed that they are breaking ground on even more CRE at Las Posas and 101. The same for Moorpark at the 118 and 23. Maybe we can get a Steve & Barry's finally. At least in Fillmore they seem to be stopping all of the recently started projects down town. And how many dealerships are doing total tear down and reconstruction in Ventura and Oxnard? Then I see Crown Dodge abandonded their recently moved into super center and of course Santa Paula Ford abandoned ship.
When I ask friends with more knowledge in that arena about it they just say that rich smart people with big projects just do them independent of the market since permitting and the amount of time it takes to get them done. In a few years it really won't matter because everything will be hunky-dory. But the question is: who builds projects like this with cash? There has to be leverage involved, right? Does So in that respect it looks to me like financial suicide.
I shop thrift stores and hesitate to buy polo shirts costing more than $2.50.
Where do you find polo shirts for less than $2.50? I shop thrift stores as well, but that's *really cheap*.
Internet is down. I'm posting from my iPhone to inform. I'll be back on in an hour with some intersting replies.
I shop thrift stores and hesitate to buy polo shirts costing more than $2.50
Forget the price, I'm surprised any thrift stores stock the 10XL size. ;-)
I shouldn't be making weight jokes, though. I'm so thin nowadays that people can see what I ate for lunch, *after* I'm done eating!!
Quick post or a client location. Internet still down anyway.
Just finished shopping the thrift store in Oxnard. Bought a periwinkle Izod size M near new condition polo for $1.59 and a generic chocolate brown lesser name brand for $0.79. I did splurge however. A Castle & Cook Hawaiian for $4.00 even. No tax either. No electronics or art this time unlike my previous coup of the Canon digital SLR set up for $40 or so.
When I get a break I'll give the scoop on"w"s observations about Las Posas & 101.
"Part of the problem with Walmart/Sam's is their business model and their expansion model. Business modelwise they depend upon a cheap supply chain with as much expense offloaded to suppliers. That ain't working in $5.24 diesel land. Expansionwise they depend upon developer/municipal subsidies. Empty pockets there. Finally their big profit products are crap and Asian supplied. Dollar woes and shipping and emerging Asian priorities are killing that too."
Rob took the words out of my mouth. Their supply chain is extremely vulnerable, they're going to get hit hard by spiraling transportation costs. Also, local governments are wising up to tax breaks, and have figured out that they're a net loss for the community even after factoring in the extra jobs and taxes sales (especially if food is exempt.)
What Wal-mart et al. will do to survive is cut staff and cut stores. Fewer people working, and fewer stores; and don't think for a second that they'll pause to consider the impact to a small community of pulling its only retail location (after all the mom-and-pop stores got driven out of business.)
What we're about to (re)discover is the advantage of the small local retailer: they can survive downturns better. The big-box retailers are using leases and have employment contracts, so they have big fixed expenses to hit per store; if revenues don't clear the fixed expenses, they shut down the store. The small retailers, in contrast, either own the property outright or can work out a deal with the local banker, and by using family and friends to man the store, can get their employee expenses down to a minimum. They're still vulnerable to cost of goods, but may have more flexibility on switching suppliers. While they suffered during the huge expansion of retail, they are better positioned to survive a downturn, albeit not painlessly.
"My regular reader knows I am real cheap. I shop thrift stores and hesitate to buy polo shirts costing more than $2.50."
I'm happy to say that I'm thrifty, but clothes have always been an area where I'm willing to spend more to get better quality. "The most expensive clothes you will ever buy will be the ones you never wear"; I try to buy a smaller number of items that fit well, that I like, and that will see a lot of use, but that typically means I pay more. There is a lot of over-priced junk, but true quality doesn't come cheap. That's particularly true of formal wear; any time you're getting a suit for less than $300, the quality will suffer.
I'll concede that it doesn't make sense to pay more than a few dollars for a t-shirt, though; and the $40 Levi's 501 shrink-to-fit never go out of style and look good enough. Free advice: don't buy the $20 jeans. There's thrifty, and then there's cheap.
The real problem is that Americans' priorities are all wrong; I think the term "penny wise, pound foolish" was invented in anticipation of the American consumer. That people would spend $4000 a month on the mortgage, $1000 a month on multiple cars, then argue with the sales clerk over whether a shirt was $12.99 or $9.99 is absolute madness. People get the biggest house they can get a loan for, the most expensive cars they can get loans for, and then look to make ends meeet by clipping coupons. It doesn't work. Buy an old house with only the space you need, buy older used cars, and you'll have more than enough money for food and clothes.
PV concerning clothes.
Agreed. There were racks and racks of plain quality clothing. Not worth the effort.
The other thing is advertising. Anything more than a 1" monogram on the chest or arm and they should pay me. Best investment; a tux. Worn only 15-20 times or so but considering rentals the $420 has been recovered from the gas saved going to the tux shop never mind rental fees and convenience.
The lots at the stores were overflow. The recession is in full force. The quality of the items is creeping up as more people in the area ummm... relocate or rightsize their lifestyles. The cars were interesting. Nice Volvo 760 gle for $1200.
watch out on the gle volvos Dawg.
Both the 740 and 760 have very expensive air shocks. Comes out cheaper to replace the springs and traditional gas shocks than just the shocks. You are talking close to 1200 bucks for them, never mind installation.
hey everyone, the wool is now clearly over the eyes of debt burdened homeowners in Mass.
Remember a couple months ago, we discussed how Mass would help stop the foreclosure process for an extra couple of months. They also talked of folks taking credit counciling courses and then getting new lower fixed rate loans so that those adjusting ARMs did not kill them.
Well the numbers are coming in.
In Mass 7800 folks took the courses, but only 22 of the graduates were able to get new loans with better terms.
Looks like the state is in cahoots with the mortgage industry.
Rob said "The other thing is advertising. Anything more than a 1" monogram on the chest or arm and they should pay me." -- My sentiments exactly. The youth of this generation are like walking billboards. And I thought my generation was bad. I buy my T shirts at the Van Huesen outlet because I will not wear anything with a sign or slogan on it. They are well made and are about $5-6 each once you figure out the coupon/sale cycle. I must say that I prefer to buy my clothes new. I get nice wrinkle free shirts for $10-12 at the outlet. When I really splurge I buy something by Columbia on sale. I just bought my first Titanium shirt (spf ~50) a few weeks ago half off.
I used to love thrift stores. Haggled with the manager of one to buy the awesome wood cradle for my daughter for only $12. I probably bought a 1000 books from Asimov to Zelazny. And tons of amazing stuff I never new I needed. I have always found that the best thift stores are those frequented by field workers as they may overlook something that I just have to have and the prices are always better.
I have never seen a city with more thrift stores than Ventura. There is almost nothing else on main street in that town.
I thought Ventura was a place for bipolar relatives, but those thrift store deals seem pretty sweet.
The new urbanist cabal that has taken over San Buenaventura has gutted the downtown with overplanning and forced out the thrift stores. Soon they are bringing back parking meters.
I do my shopping in Oxnard where "w" called it correctly. Today was bargain day and I was the only English speaking customer. I was shopping an entirely different set of items. Last week I got a huge golf themed picture for the shack. $3.99. 40x30 inches, glassed, wood frame and triple matting. I'm starting to see the flotsam of higher end households appearing.
I want a classic house and I do not want thick necked losers like Arnold in charge.
BTW, my Asimov went in the P.K Dick direction rather quickly.
P.S. I refuse to learn Spanish.
Maybe we can get a Steve & Barry's finally.
I liked the stores even though the merchandise was always out of place, and the prices were great. I did a lot of shopping there for my kids. But it doesn't matter now.
Steve & Barry's files for bankruptcy protection
By ANNE D'INNOCENZIO – 10 hours ago
NEW YORK (AP) — Steve & Barry's LLC, once a growing force in low-priced fashion retailing, said Wednesday that it filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, the latest merchant to succumb to a harsh consumer spending climate.
Rob, I'm sure you already know that the very best clothes do not carry logos. The best clothes are identified by quality, fit (top line clothes are custom fitted to the person, naturally,) and the taste of the person who wears them. A logo is a cheap attempt to substitute for all of that. The only logo'd clothes worth having are the ones where you don't really have an option, like athletic clothes and jeans--otherwise I avoid logos. Except Chuck Taylors :).
I don't do much thrift store shopping, mainly because it's very hard to find clothes that fit (European clothes fit me *much* better than American), but I have a lot of respect for those who do. I grew up wearing secondhand clothes from various sources, there is an art to it, and the subtle benefit is that you develop your own sense of style. The absolute best-dressed people I know of spend time in both high-end boutiques and thrift stores (if they spend any time in mass retailers they don't confess to it.)
Is it any wonder that a generation that buys clothes that are absolutely covered with logos is enamored with getting lots of meaningless tattoos?
Who new jeans, a t-shirt and a tan would become so rebellious.
I thought this was an interesting article:
The first is the increasing frequency with which homeowners are walking away from their homes, choosing to default on loans and embracing foreclosure. This is the final displacement of the home as a signifier of stability and family. The precession from home as signifer of stability, family, ownership, the era of the original, to the era of the counterfeit, vinyl siding, simulations of the original wood structure, faux plaster and tudor-stylings for example, to the mass produced homes in the era of mechanical production, the rise of the homebuilders, and finally, to the third order where the home is no longer a home but simply the reproduction of wealth and status, or the detritus of failed transactions. Consequently, the social transition toward debt repudiation is also a revolt against the home and the hyperreality of forever rising prices. In the end, the pricing structure of homes bore no relationship to any reality whatsoever.
Friday, July 11, 2008; 10:20 AM
This morning's news:
Shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac continued a week of freefall on Wall Street today, abruptly losing nearly half their value as investors ignored efforts by federal regulators to reassure about the financial health of the companies and focused instead on the risk that a federal bailout might wipe out the value of their stock.
Thanks, Casey, where ever you are you little freak.
One word: Karma.
Beijing takes dog off the menu for Olympics
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080711/lf_nm_life/olympics_dogmeat_dc_1
The Chinese government is turning Liberal. I believe their next edict will be to hand out Obama bumperstickers.
@W
Beijing takes dog off the menu for Olympics
Thank God - that is so wrong. I don't believe in eating pigs either BTW.
BTW there was some poll that suggested dog owners were more likely to vote McCain - doesn't really fit the Stuff White People Like crowd.
Akubi, :)
I am sure there is a correlation betweeen dog ownership and the size of your yard. Hence a relationship between income and dog ownership.
The way the Chinese hand down these sweeping politically correct commandments to the populous strikes me as similar to the way that Liberals hands down these sweeping rules constantly to our populous. Rob's post about losing freedoms was appropriate. I fully expect in California the Global Warming/Wealth Envy crowd will propose a limit on how big of a house we can live in. Out of fairness and environmental consciouness of course!
Chinese hand down these sweeping politically correct commandments to the populous
Casey the grammar Nazi here:
The word is "populace".
"Populous" is an adjective meaning "having a high population". You learned something new today! ;-)
I think spending the rest of my life paying for the egregious mistakes of Bear Stearns, Freddie, Fannie and the rest of the loosers™ (like KC) is a serious loss of freedom with no benefit whatsoever and I can’t even vote on that!
OT, but I thought this was funny:
But the reality is that commenting either attracts loathsome people or somehow causes ordinary people to express themselves in a way that is loathsome.
A random example: on June 11, a user called way21337 uploaded a video to YouTube. It's titled My new gerbil, and it shows, in fact, a black-and-white gerbil snuffling around cutely in somebody's hand. It is 11 seconds long. By press time, it had acquired 102 comments. Let's take a look! They begin with NewTyhuss, who writes, "sweet!" Things start going south with comment No. 4: "id hit it." (Good one, ZRace67!) After a week, we're down to eldergod: "why dont u shove that gerbil up yur ass and quit posting stupid videos." bwalhof writes, "kill yourself. fast." And so on.
Come on Casey, didn't you play Populous as a child in Uzbekistan? You understand my confusion as I learned everything I know playing video games.
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