Saturday, July 05, 2008

No Christmas?

This month marks the start of the Christmas season. The Christmas shipping season from Asia to the US West Coast ports and beyond that is. Last year was the worst Christmas since 2002. What? You missed that buried on page D-12 last February? All you remember was the CNBC cheerleaders pushing the preliminary store estimates the Monday after Black Friday? Exactly.

So. What can you use to predict this Christmas? Not the yoy retail reports. You can be sure they'll use last year's abysmal numbers for comparison. One suggestion is the 'Baltic Dry Index.' The BDI is an index of dry shipping rates. Kind of a heterodyned long metric. When prices for shipping explode (doubling since Feb) It wipes out margins and businesses just plain old don't ship at a loss. China will essentially burning their pesodollars before they are worth less or no longer accepted in trade for shipping fuel. I suggest watching the tonnage at West Coast ports.

8 comments:

Sweet Cashback said...

First to say: Merry Christmas!

Casey Serin said...

You mean, all the financial fraudsters can add "Destroying Christmas" to their accomplishments...?! Sweet!! ;-)

I suggest watching the tonnage at West Coast ports.

Just volunteer to board the cargo ship yourself before they take the weight -- that may double or even triple the tonnage on board. ;-)

w said...

This makes me remember the whole slow down at the ports when the economy was booming. How long is the longshoremen's new contract? Of course when they threatened Christmas it was played as the American working man at his finest.

Mark said...

Maybe China will burn their "pesodollars" as fuel!

Akubi said...

Where's Santa Flipper Claus?

Akubi said...

BTW, I'm feeling bullish on a yoyodyned long metric!

Pleather Murse said...

It's going to be a blue Politically Correct Holiday Season, I fear. There may be no presents underneath our Culturally Diverse Holiday Tree this year.

Santa Flipper Clause said...

Ho Ho Ho - It's Santa Flipper Clause

Hi Akubi, sorry I have not left an irrelevant comment recently. I was in Paris for eight days for work. The trip was nice but nothing spectacular.

Anyway, I hope all is well with you. I am catching up on my blogging this weekend.

Santa F. Clause