Tuesday, July 15, 2008
It's A Recession, Get Over It
Reading all the blogs you'd think it was the end times. It's a recession and it needn't even be deep or exceptionally long. Of course every single public action to date has made things worse but that's a different issue.
The latest problem that concerns me is small commercial lending. It may have stopped. That would be very, very bad. Lots of that debt is revolving credit and funds ongoing operations. We start seeing the smalls forced to chose between taxes and employee paychecks and the jobless rate goes parabolic. It already looks pretty bad in California but that's off a low level.
If that trend goes national later this year we may look back on Dow 9600 as the good old days.