Saturday, July 19, 2008

Worthless Field Poll

Useless as...

What if they did a survey and the results were so impossible the entire organization is called into question? Nothing at least as long as the "results" conform to the agenda of the commissioners of the poll.
Field Research Corporation of San Francisco, CA has just released an energy and transportation paper (small pdf file). In this comes the surprising result:
"Many motorists are employing a variety of gas saving measures, such as driving less (78%), buying lower
grades of gasoline (67%), and using their more fuel efficient vehicle (59%). Smaller proportions also say they are carpooling more (28%), employees are taking jobs closer to their home or moving closer to their worksite (28%) or adjusting work hours so they are not commuting to the worksite as often (25%). Others report having replaced a car or truck with a more fuel-efficient vehicle (27%), and 17% say they are using public transportation more."


Wow, 17%. Too bad less than 2% of all passenger trips in the State are on public transportation. If 17% of those surveyed used transit even once more ridership would more than double which isn't possible given schedules and capacity constraints.

There's an important lesson here. Stated preference and revealed preference are vastly different animals when there is a perception of acceptable behavioral conduct. People are saying they are using more transit because they've been brainwashed into thinking it is the right thing to do. It also pretty much kills the chances of high speed rail actually passing no matter what their field polls show.

25 comments:

Steve said...

Mursting Firsting compliment on getting a picture of the California Assembly mixer from last night.

Yee Haw !

Rob Dawg said...

Sharp eye Steve. Yes, the capitol steps. We all know what Casey is looking at. And yes I've got a mega-rant about the situation in Sacramento brewing.

Lost Cause said...

Public transportation is a joke in this state unless you live in San Francisco proper. But when you look at the MTA bus ridership numbers, and the Red Line -- they are huge. I think there is demand.

The economics are compelling for me: zero gallons of gas. So I take the bus to work now. Certainly it is a pain. It requires planning and patience. But I get my reading done. I don't think I would do it otherwise.

Casey Serin said...

We all know what Casey is looking at.

I'm looking at those sweet helium-filled 34-D's ... ;-)

I've got a mega-rant about the situation in Sacramento brewing.

Please tell me it's about my potential arrest or indictment, for the love of all that's holy!!

w said...

Rob, it looks like the wheels fell off.

http://vcrdsmls.rapmls.com/scripts/mgrqispi.dll?APPNAME=vcrdsmls&PRGNAME=MLSPropertyDetail&ARGUMENTS=-N161891019,-N311322,-N,-A,-N11063639

Steve said...

It's pictures like this that makes you wonder what these fine fellows day job is?

Realtors ?
Department of Child Protective Services agents?
Catholic Priests ?

Lex said...

Actually, the report said that the 17% increase in PT use was up from 13% in 2005, which is even more lame. I did find the polling showing positive growth in favor of nuclear power, tanker terminals, and even off-shore drilling interesting and unsuprising. If the dollar tanks much further, Americans will approve of boiling porpoises for oil.

TheGate said...

Does anyone have a link to the casey talkcast that happened last week? The link appears to be gone.

Son of Brock Landers said...

So the Bradley effect applies to public transportation polls too?

BJ said...

Rob, it looks like the wheels fell off.


Looks like they might also be trying to be made nearly whole with that price on raw land.

Akubi said...

@Dawg,
When was the last time you used public transportation?

Akubi said...

At least in Marin, I find that the bus is far more pleasant than commercial airlines these days.

Akubi said...

BTW, over at Lou's place we discover what happens to people without public transit. Yikes!

Rob Dawg said...

Akubi said...
@Dawg,
When was the last time you used public transportation?


July 5th and July 11th for more than 90 miles total. Last month included Seattle trolleys for Dim Sum at House of Hong and the ferry. Why do you ask?

Akubi said...

@Dawg,
Perhaps I should have clarified the question: when did you last take public transportation in *California*? Does it exist in Ventura? I don’t know and so I ask.

Rob Dawg said...

For those who don't know when Mayor Tom Bradley of LA ran for Senate he was a double digit shoe-in. He was black and the push polls weren't even close to what people were voting with the curtain closed.

I'm up in the mountains resting. I'll get up the energy to make a full post about Ventura and the wheels falling off their evil new urbanist agenda.

Lou Minatti said...

Something that I've never paid attention to before tonight: There are a lot of single MILFs at Chuck E. Cheese on a Saturday night at 6:30.

Just an observation.

WeWantTheFunk said...

Lou, don't tell me you're posting from a laptop at Chuck E. Cheese.

Lou Minatti said...

I saw a guy doing just that. My kids love that place. I explained to them tonight why I don't like Chuck E. Cheese. I told them that Chuck E. Cheese serves the equivalent of dog food.

Rob Dawg said...

I'm posting from the undisclosed mountain fortress today. The transit trips on the 5th and the 11th were Los Angeles Metro, Bus #653.

Casey Serin said...

@ TheGate... the Casey update talkcast from 7/16 can be found here:

http://www.creekcafe.com/casey/talkcast.mp3

It's a big 70 MB file... Casey, err, that is -- "me" -- hops on the call sometime in the middle. ;-)

Akubi said...

The transit trips on the 5th and the 11th were Los Angeles Metro, Bus #653.
Sweet! You go Dawg!
BTW I am the proud owner of 3.99 fishnets this evening. Woohoo!

Beyonder said...

17% say they are using public transportation more

Disappointing...I thought way more would be clamoring to cram shoulder to shoulder with a bus full of illegals with the extra bonus of breathing in their tuberculosis

Rob Dawg said...

That's drug resistant tuberculosis and don't forget the disease we wiped out; Whooping Cough. Combined those two alone cost my county pubic health systems more than the most optimistic estimates of the contributions to the economy from illegal immigration. This is one of those things that piss me off. It's a health issue not some veiled racism. Unfortunately any discussion is in the context of discrimination.

Northern Renter said...

Man, I have just spent a week in a cabin in the Scandinavian woods and I return to the Internet to find out that little has changed.

The Housing Bubble continutes to deflate... I think it met with too many pricks.

As for Chuck E Cheese... well, Lou, I had two lihaapirakkas for lunch and they were unspeakably greasy. I am sure that Chuck E's lovely work shines in comparison.

Akubi... you have 3.99 fishnets? Does that mean that there's a hole in one of them?

And finally, let me say that I regularly use mass transit at home, and used it here in Helsinki today to bring the little ones to a park and then to the zoo. I firmly support it with my bucks. Some of you may be interested to know that monthly metro passes can now be claimed as a deduction on Canadian income taxes.

And now I'd better go. One of the twins is overtired from the day and just started to cry. Nice to be back ranting with all of you.


NR