Tuesday, July 08, 2008

Lou's Back!

Lou Minatti has reactivated his blog. He's apparently had some personal troubles but all he's asking for is prayers.
Give him a visit and send him an email.


Property Flopper said...

Good news, FIRST thing in the morning.

Casey Serin said...

Looks like both you and Lou might be right about an oil bubble. Then again, this could be a lull before the hardcore speculators run up the price to $500/bbl. ;-p

Rob Dawg said...

The oil bubble popping is going to be very interesting. A lot of dirty deals will float to the surface. There are a lot of long positions that will get creamed. So much so that the entire futures sector might break. The public will cheer the breathtaking decline and when retail prices persist to cover those failed long positions they'll scream.

MaxedOutMama said...

Rob - well, I think the oil bubble takes down the last edifice of the structure. From there on in we probably have to go back to old-time economics, i.e., can I make it for less than what I sell it for?

Well, isn't that a nasty, dangerous, rude question in these times. It's a socially out-of-bounds in investing these days as asking if people could afford those mortgages was in 2006.

I thought you'd get a kick out of these two articles about China. The first Chinese nickel pig iron building electric smelters. Why? Because electricity is cheaper than coke. The second China shuts down coal power plants. Why? Because there is a coal shortage. Seems that China set the coal pricing below current foreign prices, so of course there is a coal shortage. Which now translates to an electricity shortage.

MaxedOutMama said...

And, Rob, it has been said that the fundamental question of engineering is "How does that work?"

Well, I find when I look at economies these days that I keep mumbling to myself "That doesn't work! This doesn't work!" And sure enough, it turns out not to be working....

I have the feeling that the best regulation possible in the financial world would be to fire half the business degrees and replace them with engineers. True, the engineers would be snotty, snarky and disgruntled, but the math would be a snap for them and the ingrained fidelity to fundamentals would greatly improve modeling.

Rob Dawg said...

Two Ivory Tower economists were walking down the street when they spy a $20 bill on the sidewalk. One asks; should we pick it up? The other replies; "No, if it were worth it somebody would have already picked it up."

They walk a little further where they come across a street vendor selling hot ddogs and a customer paying for one. One economist turns to the other and panders; "Interesting... I wonder if that would work in theory?"

How to win a Nobel in economics; be born with three hands.

Yes, MOM we agree.

What is happening is another joke I'll save for later but the actual consumers of energy are not willing to pay in full anywhere near what the speculators were willing to buy on margin. It must end very badly.

Bill in NC said...


Northern Renter said...

A physicist, a chemist and an economist were the only survivors from a shipwreck in the Pacific and they washed up ashore a tropical island. After days of looking, they had found no food save one (closed) can of beans. They began to debate how to open it.

"There is one obvious way," said the physicist, "I will use that large rock positioned at height x and, as it falls, it will describe an arc and rotate such that the sharp end shears off the top of the can."

"And waste most of it", sneered the chemist, "The sensible thing is to use that decaying matter by the swamp to produce some organic acids that might eat through the seal around the top."

"Gentlemen, gentlemen", remonstrated the economist, "Your disciplines have much to learn from mine. It's really quite simple. First, assume one has a can opener..."


The_Scum said...

Link to Lou's blog?