Sorry for the excessive down time. I've been a lazy slob, nothing more. Now on to the post.
Welcome to Phase IV of the World Economic Correction Hoocoodnode edition (WECH). Let's start by reviewing the First three phases for perspective.
Phase I; Prophets of Doom. Those who saw it coming no matter how much they expalined were not believed. I know some of that feeling.
Phase II; Watching the Detectives. With the first few predictions of the prophets coming true despite their being early, people started looking at their evidence.
Phase III; Underground Community. Effectively locked out of traditional corridors of influence the prophets turn to the intertubez and gain credibility.
So. Phase IV; what is that going to be? One suggestion is to strangle somebody just to make ourselves feel better. I have a better idea. I'll post when I get back from San Diego.
16 comments:
First to say that phase IV appears to be give a lot of money to rich people.
Phase IV -- prosecutions of white collar fraudsters like myself skyrocket and laws are once again enforced...
Pfft.... bwahaha, I can't even type that with a straight face. Nah, Phase IV is waiting for the statute of limitations to expire so that I can gin up some more cash back. Thanks for bailing me out, Rob! :-p
Stage 4, and it's coming up pretty quickly, is silence as the stupid people resolve to take out their anger on us because we've been right all along.
First to say that phase IV appears to be give a lot of money to rich people.
Let's be more specific, that money is going to a few well connected people.
Some game last night. Never seen two more clueless defensive coaches.
I swear each offence excuted only 3 different plays the whole game and still the other team could not defend.
Anyways, you can get your free breakfast tomorrow. No word if Obama will have a soup kitchen set up in time for lunch.
The annual big SB party was held at the house last night.
Had 1 partygoer say they locked in a fixed rate last week on a refi at 4.82 and that rates are already up over 5 by Friday. Looks like inflation is starting to creap in.
Another is ready to buy his first home. Lot o cash in his pocket. He thinks prices are done falling. Had to slap him silly on that one.
Remember, free Grand Slam at Denny's on Tuesday.
Casey, get your scrawny butt over there before you decompose.
Hummm Bacon.....
h.
Oh, and I vote for Chesley "Sully" Sullenburger to replace Ben Bernanke.
The last stage is when the plane augers into the mountain side.
We need Sully now.
Only Sully get get this plane on the ground with everyone else alive.
h.
Now that pretty much the entire world is in agreement with the economic collapse theorem, Phase IV may be to start taking the opposite side. Finance is doomed and will likely be nationalized either quickly or slowly (probably the latter, given the ineptitude of Congress), but there are some other sectors of the economy that may be bottoming out soon. No recovery of any significance for probably a year if not more, but it certainly makes sense to keep the eyes open.
A new financial system will begin to be built out of the old. Possibly, it will incorporate social values and the economics of prosperity.
Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Investors should buy put options on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index because the benchmark for U.S. stocks may fall back to the 11-year low it reached in November, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said.
“Dismal” fourth-quarter profits and forecasts from companies as well as waning investor confidence in President Barack Obama’s economic stimulus plan may drive the S&P 500 toward 752.44 in the next month, Goldman strategists said.
For investors using a “put spread” strategy, the highest payoff would be generated through buying March 825 puts and selling March 745 puts....That trade would produce $1.85 in profit for every $1 invested should the S&P 500 drop to its November low, they said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aotLF3OO7sDQ&refer=home
I thought the five stages of any project were: 1) Enthusiasm, 2) trouble, 3) search for a scapegoat, 4) punishment of the innocent, and 5) praise and reward for all non-participants.
We're still working through phases 2 and 3, but I think we're close to phase 4 starting in earnest...
Phase 4 progress update:
California delays $3.5B in payments
http://money.cnn.com/2009/02/02/news/economy/california_budget_crisis/index.htm?postversion=2009020215
Sun
Did California get Casey to do some massively focused thinking and decide not to open the letters stamped URGENT! on the outside?
I've been advising Gov. Schwarzenegger on fiscal policy. I've suggested getting a $500 billion loan from the IMF -- $50 billion to pay off existing debt, and $450 billion cash back for needed infrastructure repairs.
I've also advised him that the state should default immediately after collecting the cash back. :-)
Listening to the schools already bitching about the cut backs they are going to receive makes me sick. WE'RE BROKE! Is it our job to just keep shoveling money to them? The schools need to look at the disconnect between what they receive and what the state school system receives. Somewhere between there is the money they need. Instead the pity project is in full effect.
"We don't make enough to support a family"
"I don't know if I can handle working 9 months a year until early retirement with a sweet pension"
"All of those rich people with jobs in the private sector are buying mansions"
Meanwhile, completely off topic, I am 100% debt free. A few months ago I realized the end of my student loans was in sight, and held off on spending while I paid off the balance.
Yes, that's right: a cutback on spending in order to deleverage. Take that, Bernanke!
(Of course, now that I'm fully deleveraged and turning a generous surplus, I can start tucking away money for big future purchases--as well as pick up a few items at fire sale prices over the next little while, like a big-screen TV, where prices are getting very tempting)
PV -
Congrats! Enjoy the freedom from debt.
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