Housing Bubble, credit bubble, public planning, land use, zoning and transportation in the exurban environment. Specific criticism of smart growth, neotradtional, forms based, new urbanism and other top down planner schemes to increase urban extent and density. Ventura County, California specific examples.
Wednesday, November 07, 2012
Extrapolation
If the past 4 years are any guide here's what you can expect by 2016:
Gold at $3400/oz.
Gas $7/gal.
Home prices down 25%.
I get the sense conservatives and business owners are battening down the hatches and reducing hiring, investment and even their own personal spending.
Whether this is post-election spite or simple prudence doesn't matter.
I for one, cut back the maid to half time, laid off the gardeners. That is an $800 a month savings. I told them all taxes are going up I need to get ready. There are consequences to how people vote. I was planning to build a guest house, redo my road and replant part of the orchard. Not now. Too risky. I want LOW overhead and as much savings as possible.
Yeah, not so much. Things go on, just as they always have. I'm in tech, the wife is an attorney (biotech patents), so we've been fine through it all.
As for the future? Tech is hiring like crazy, things are doing fine around here - I'm quite optimistic.
We're starting to shop for a vactation home, I'm thinking property values aren't about to rise tomorrow, but within three years, most areas will be recovered (not to peak, but will be rising with moderate gains).
The layoffs in the skilled worker categories are going to increase.
One thing I see is yet another... wait for it... bifurcation. Get used to the word. Normal distributions are being drawn to opposite polls in almost everything.
In this case employment. We used to call them LRUs. Line Replaceable Units. It wasn't cruel or denigrating just a job/skills/availability designation.
We are about to lay off the core of corporate competence and replace them with lower cost hopefully replacements. That will work. Not.
9 comments:
Okay, what's the bad news? ;-)
The bad news, your share of the $22b debt. and no it is not distributed evenly.
Here's one more for your list.
Less than 260 million Americans NOT on food stamps!
That seems to be consistent with the new trend. Sigh.
I fully expect to NOT pay that debt.
Didn't you sell your gold at $800.00?
Fo someone who signed up to post in the last few weeks how would you know?
This is not HCN. We don't put up with nonsense.
So what do you guys hear out there?
I get the sense conservatives and business owners are battening down the hatches and reducing hiring, investment and even their own personal spending.
Whether this is post-election spite or simple prudence doesn't matter.
I for one, cut back the maid to half time, laid off the gardeners. That is an $800 a month savings. I told them all taxes are going up I need to get ready. There are consequences to how people vote. I was planning to build a guest house, redo my road and replant part of the orchard. Not now. Too risky. I want LOW overhead and as much savings as possible.
And the world is going to end...
Yeah, not so much. Things go on, just as they always have. I'm in tech, the wife is an attorney (biotech patents), so we've been fine through it all.
As for the future? Tech is hiring like crazy, things are doing fine around here - I'm quite optimistic.
We're starting to shop for a vactation home, I'm thinking property values aren't about to rise tomorrow, but within three years, most areas will be recovered (not to peak, but will be rising with moderate gains).
The layoffs in the skilled worker categories are going to increase.
One thing I see is yet another... wait for it... bifurcation. Get used to the word. Normal distributions are being drawn to opposite polls in almost everything.
In this case employment. We used to call them LRUs. Line Replaceable Units. It wasn't cruel or denigrating just a job/skills/availability designation.
We are about to lay off the core of corporate competence and replace them with lower cost hopefully replacements. That will work. Not.
Post a Comment