Tuesday, March 27, 2018

Census Incences Some of Us

The US Census is a bit intrusive.  From the first this was acknowledged and has always been a sensitive issue.

  1. How many people were living or staying in this house, apartment, or mobile home on April 1, 2010?
  2. Were there any additional people staying here April 1, 2010 that you did not include in Question 1?
  3. Is this house, apartment, or mobile home: owned with mortgage, owned without mortgage, rented, occupied without rent?
  4. What is your telephone number?
  5. Please provide information for each person living here. Start with a person here who owns or rents this house, apartment, or mobile home. If the owner or renter lives somewhere else, start with any adult living here. This will be Person 1. What is Person 1's name?
  6. What is Person 1's sex?
  7. What is Person 1's age and Date of Birth?
  8. Is Person 1 of Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish origin?
  9. What is Person 1's race?
  10. Does Person 1 sometimes live or stay somewhere else?

And the long form:
 
 https://www.census.gov/dmd/www/pdf/d-61b.pdf

BTW, The long form is Facebook level intrusion except not optional. 


109 comments:

Lawyerliz said...

Good grief.
It's been a while.

EngineerJim said...

Yeah, I think all questions about age, sex, race or origin should not be allowed. However a question about US citizenship should be asked.

Rob Dawg said...

it’s been a while.

I am probably yesterday’s Blog.

LBD said...

I refuse to fill it out but my wife does it willingly.

I don't see an Illegal filling it out honestly either.

Rob Dawg said...

We got the long form once and I still need a shower thinking about it. I also got a visit from a friendly census worker about our neighbors. I admit. I narc’d

Lawyerliz said...

I wonder how many people lie?

Lawyerliz said...

Narc'd? My telephone number? New they'll ask about our computer web addresses. What do they need a telephone number for?

Rob Dawg said...

I’m not sure but a telephone number gets used for two types of quality control. Random phone follow ups being one. The other doesn’t really work anymore.

Firemane said...

There IS a difference between the long form and the 'basic census'.

The basic census is supposed to be as accurate a count as possible of all residents of the US (citizen or not). The "long form" is a subset survey (IIRC, it's something like 1 in 6), which is far more detailed.

The whole reason it is divided that way is that they understand the more intrusive, the lower the response rate, and the greater the 'error' rate, (more people will lie).

Total number of residents is the driver of 'how much representation', so is critical to the political process. The long form, more highly detailed effort is basically the government attempting to utilize a resource it only gets access to once a decade (the census workforce) to get greater detail on the populace (which can be used for all manner of different public policy decisions - immigration being just one example).

Republican fought (rightly) to prevent Obama Administration attempts to wrest control of the census from the scientists and make it more of a political tool.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2018/03/29/republicans-protect-census-trump-citizenship-question-column/466039002/

So, my view is simple: Having immigration questions on the long form is fine. But, adding to the basic census goes directly against the constitutional purpose of the basic census.

Firemane said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
LBD said...

Good morning!

Completed another round of tests, this time the Gallbladder.

Today it is very important to stand up and say I am an American Citizen.

Firemane said...

Wishing everyone a happy, healthy, joyful weekend (whether you get a holiday or not).

Lawyerliz said...

Me to.
Rejoice.
New unemployment claims are down to where they were in 1973

Is there any information about counting dropouts from the system? Or good guess.

Firemane said...

The most likely reason that unemployment "claims" are down so far, (despite a significantly larger population and workforce today than in the '70s), is due to market changes in the way people are hired and fired - coupled with a high likelihood of lack of understanding about who can file UI claims.

In the '70s, the 'normal' SOP for getting a job was go to a place, put in an application, interview with the person you would be working for, get hired. You were employed immediately - though you might have a 90 day "probationary" period.

Over the past 50 years, there has been a slow, steady march away from direct hire to go-betweens. Head-hunters do interviews, instead of employers. Temp agencies and head-hunters place employees into positions on 'contract' or 'temp-to-perm' or 'long-term-temp' assignments, etc.

Lots of former W-2 jobs have morphed into 1099 jobs.

In the end, if your temp agency can keep you placed somewhere, you can stay employed without needing or bothering to file claims. So, the worst of the 'hard-to-keep-a-job' type employees, who might have previously filed claims multiple times a year, perhaps as they got jobs, then lost them - instead move from temp assignment to temp assignment, staying employed for the most part, and filing no claims, even if eligible from time to time.

Also, many short-term employees, not having done any research on how the system works, (in most states, eligibility is based on total W-2 dollars earned during the previous 2 quarters), don't bother to apply (even when eligible), because they've heard myths about not qualifying if you're part time, or if you're a temp, or if you're a 'contractor'.

Also, in many states, actual UI benefits have been cut so much, the sums are so low, it's simply not worth the hassle in dealing with the government bureaucracy to get the payments.

Also, understand, the headline number is "new claims". That is very different from "continuing claims", which is people actually getting payments. Filing a claim doesn't mean you'll get money. And though the percentage of denied claims is NOT something that is highly publicized, based on "continuing claims" numbers over time, it looks (at a casual glance) that the rate of denial is fairly consistent (and low).

Lawyerliz said...

I hate my computer. There hasn't been one single time where I could turn it on and just use it. Naturally I seldom use it.9

Lawyerliz said...

I applied once but had a job before the 2 week waiting period was over. Never got a cent.

LBD said...

I collected one week unemployment and that was due to vacation schedule at a factory job.

I agree on the temp employment and 1099.

The two factors I like is hours worked and participation rate.

Like Liz says there is no norm. U-3 is a propaganda number when used incorrectly as they do.

Have to see the B-2 and participation for March in a few weeks to see if there is still upward movement. IMO

LBD said...

Looks Like TESLA might be the new age Tucker.

Lawyerliz said...

Too bad.

Lawyerliz said...

None of them have any error bars. In the most honest of worlds there would be errors and. . Unknown unknowns!
Hey what if everybody threw out all the diplomats! Would anything change? Did the poisoned people get better?

Lawyerliz said...

I think once the insurance payouts really start and new construction begins, it will be a frenzy, and the unemployment rate will really drop, for up to say, a year, with error bars.

Rob Dawg said...

Success; making a $80k electric car for $60k.
Scam; making a $60k electric car for $80k.

LBD said...

Success would be delivering what you promise in a timely manor. Too many projects and not enough focus on the main one. On another note Space X is doing good.

Lawyerliz said...

Germ obsessed. Disinfect your cell phone several times a day. Hah! Sponges should be replaced often. Ok.

Rob Dawg said...

Off to arguably the best farmers market in California. Davis, CA.

LBD said...

Good Morning!

High wind maybe as much as 7" of snow tonight and tomorrow. :(

Best framers market and street fair I have been to is Las Cruses NM. :)

Rob Dawg said...

Las Cruses is good! Indian fry bread. Artery clogging but oh so tasty.

LBD said...

So Kali has decided coffee is cancer causing and needs a warning label. Will ballots be next? Voting for politicians may be hazardous to your health. Crazy!

Lawyerliz said...

True as to politicians. Coffee is good for diabetes and several other things.
Boy crying wolf.

Lawyerliz said...

Termites are social roaches.

LBD said...

More then one kind of politician? Termites and cockroaches. Hum, I was told there was three. 1. Dumb 2.Crooked 3. Dumb and Crooked. Next Kali is going to protect the public from voting, they will do it for you. =:0

Lawyerliz said...

Nobody has to live there.

LBD said...

The middle class can't live there anymore but the illegals keep coming. Oh and those EB-5 immigrant$.

Lawyerliz said...

Allow 4 units on those big.lots.

LBD said...

NO,NO,NO! that will spoil the view!

Rob Dawg said...

Density brings different expenses not lower.

Rob Dawg said...

Important dietary note. For the next 24 hours chocolate is one of the basic food groups and an acceptable breakfast food.

Lawyerliz said...

Only dark chocolate.

Lawyerliz said...

3 more families will have a nice view.
Unless nobody can afford the insurance, which is quite possible. I predict it will quadruple.

Rob Dawg said...

Worst misuse of average award:

https://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21739662-estimates-income-growth-vary-greatly-depending-methodology-average

Lawyerliz said...

The Chinese station may fall on April Fool's Day, I just read.
Hehehehe.

LBD said...

Good thing nobody is on board. Space ship or Chinese Junk?

Lawyerliz said...

Aspirin may improve teeth.

Lawyerliz said...

Very good. Hehehehe.

sm_landlord said...

On the jobs and HR thing. One of the kids works for a company whose name you would recognize. They want to promote him him to a management job. However, HR insists on doing a whole interview process as they would with any external candidate. Plus, if he does get promoted, he get paid more but loses his benefits.

HR has become a parasitic disease on the corporate body. I can't tell you how glad I am not to be working in an environment where HR exists.

TJandTheBear said...

Only dark chocolate.

I'll second that!

ROB, hear about the migrant march through Mexico from Central America?

TJandTheBear said...

HR has been a parasitic disease on the corporate body.

Corrected that for you. ;-)

That's why I spent most of my life as a contractor/consultant. Always started immediately, negotiated rates directly, and no touchy-feely BS. I'm an emp now but company is small so HR is one lady and she's as nice as can be.

Lawyerliz said...

Tell them no. Especially the benefits thing.

Lawyerliz said...

None of the he people AT My jobs ever did anything.

Lawyerliz said...

HR

Lawyerliz said...

I have NOT changed my opinion of Trump, but I no longer want to read about his latest awfulness.

Cinco-X said...

Happy Easter!!!

LBD said...

Happy Easter!

May all your eggs be filled with Gold!

I see business wanting Temps as a try it before you buy it. Benefit packages especially insurance is a unknown future expense and a lot of hassle. 1099 solves a lot of this.

LBD said...

I have not changed my mind about the Clinton Crime Family. I wish HRC would shut up, she lost move on.

Rob Dawg said...

Temp agency engagements make me wonder if we are double counting that work. Employed by the agency and employed by the client. Firemane? Are temps excluded by client companies when reporting staffing?

Lawyerliz said...

Yeah, I don't want to hear about her either.

Lawyerliz said...

We had a flower ceremony at the Unitarian church, and a pot luck feast afterwards. I made gazpacho. Yum

Rob Dawg said...

Spicy egg dish and sausage egg dish here. Thick cut bacon and fruit salad. Looks like the space station will miss North America.

LBD said...

We made Chipotle deviled eggs. :)

sm_landlord said...

> We made Chipotle deviled eggs. :)

OMG. Hopefully a certain couple of people do not see that post and start that business again!

dilbert dogbert said...

This morning as I heaved myself out of bed, I shouted: HE IS RISIN!!!

dilbert dogbert said...

"I have not changed my mind about the Clinton Crime Family. I wish HRC would shut up, she lost move on."
Funny. If I haden't seen the comment I would never know she is in the news.

dilbert dogbert said...

Hey Liz!
The FloriDoH! daughter and new son and the 8year old grand daughter spent a week with us. They have a very healthy and happy baby. Wonderful luck for them. The grandson likes to yank on my beard.
The San Joes Nose daughter and baby girl were here too. Both born in Oct a week apart. It was fun to see them interact with the world and us. The girl is gonna be up and running soon. Her mom started talking in complete sentences before she even spoke single words. The wife says the SJ daughter was born with a smile on her face. Not so much the FloriDoH! daughter.
The 8year old is one smart cookie. Picks up things really fast.
The wife if filling the house with baby toy stuff. I may have to sleep in the barn.

LBD said...

DD I guess it depends on how you take your news. The talking heads still kicking her around and she has said some real dumb stuff.

SMLL I couldn't pass besides I don't think they would hang around here.

Lawyerliz said...

So things are working out? That's great

Lawyerliz said...

JCSuperstar was just on with Alice Cooper playing King Hero of. !!!

Lawyerliz said...

DYAC Heriod

Rob Dawg said...

Just aired on the correct coast. Great performance.

Lawyerliz said...

Good morning. We are all still here.

Lawyerliz said...

The crazy coast.

LBD said...

Good Morning!

Will there be anybody left on the left coast? U-Haul is now over $4K for a truck from San Jose to Dallas. Grapes of wrath Kali style! Only the rich can rent a U-Haul. Fly Over is the new Drive Over. =:0

Elons bad joke cost some bucks, April Fools back fire.

Rob Dawg said...

Drove past tens of thousands of acres of newly planted nut trees. Almonds mostly. Stupid squared.

LBD said...

What is the replacement life of nut trees?

LBD said...

Goog say Almond trees are productive for about 20-25 years so some of them may be for replacement.

Rob Dawg said...

These were the groves sacrificed to the state cutting water deliveries. You are correct. 4-5 years to useful size and 2-3 decades of peak yield.

Cinco, snow day?

Lawyerliz said...

Midwest has lots of jobs now. If you hired all the unemployed, there would be jobs left over.

LBD said...

China's tariff on Pork is kind of an oxymoron. Smithfeild foods the largest US producer is owned by a Chinese conglomerate.

Lawyerliz said...

So the want to import people with V whatever visas to keep wages low. I suggest that people be helped to move to the midwest in high unemployment states and besides help to move a few weeks more of unemployment.

Lawyerliz said...

Hahaha.

Firemane said...

Dawg,

No. Temps are not likely to be double-counted in any meaningful way.

Though Establishment survey (which provides the NFP) does double count anyone working two jobs. Household survey polls on the individual level, and actually asks about people working more than one job.

Firemane said...

LBD,

I can appreciate some hesitation to trust the U3, though I believe your perception actually inflates the actual risks of trusting it.

But, I think putting any value at all on participation rate is extremely misplaced. P-rate has almost no correlation with anything at any time throughout history. And reporting on P-rate is far, far worse than that of U-3 or NFP.

While I can see some value in paying attention to hours worked - I have more skepticism with that number than you have with U-3. Why? Because the rise of the 'salaried' employee, and the myriad abuses by management of the tag has (IMHO), rendered the number completely unreliable. When manufacturing jobs were a much greater percentage of the workforce, yes, following it was useful. Today, not so much, (though following it specifically for manufacturing has some utility, ~80% of jobs are service).

LBD said...

Firemane, My point is all the data is twisted and the choice of poison is up to the consumer. There is no one simple data that reflects what people think they see. Some part timers work three jobs stretching the numbers to unrealistic. Six 12 hour days makes 72 hours divided by 3.5 jobs per person is due able. Problem is anyone who works that hard doesn't stay down for long. I am an old fashion workaholic, Less the 60hrs is a part time job.

Firemane said...

LBD,

Your idea that the data is 'twisted' is where I object.

All data and statistics, be it BLS data or Major League Baseball data, is limited by whatever rules are set up to define different things. If one understands the definitions, then one can make sense of the stats. If one is predisposed to trust or NOT trust the stats, that's not a problem with the stats, but with the analyst.

Treating any one employment stat as king is no different than treating batting average as king in baseball (which was the case for 100 years). Understanding its limitations doesn't make it a bad stat for judging what it judges.

And the BLS in the early '90s ADDED a lot of other stats to capture many of those things that the simple U-3 doesn't. This choice preserves the U-3 historical trend AND provides data that wasn't previously available. But, treating U-6 as "real" and U-3 as "fake" is simply political spin. Neither stat is perfect. They capture different slices of truth.

As for P-rate ... my issue is that what almost nobody understands is that MALE participation (and male participation during 'prime working age' (25-54) have BOTH been steadily dropping since 1947. Almost nobody realizes that the only reason the P-rate rose from 1947-2000 was because women were entering the workforce at twice the rate men were leaving it - making P-rate a CULTURAL measure - but pretty worthless as an economic one.

And to this minute, while there is much speculation about why, nobody has an answer and the vast majority of the speculation is pushed for political reasons with little to no scientific basis. At this point in time P-rate is the Holy Grail of Conjecturefest ... to borrow from Shakespeare:

Participation Rate is a shadow stat - a poor metric, that struts and frets its hour upon the blog and is heard no more. It is a stat used by idiots, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

sm_landlord said...

To what Firemane just said, I would add that national average data can be awfully misleading. Look at the employee shortages in Ohio compared to the surplus West VA, for example.

To paraphrase the realtors: "Most employment is local".

Lawyerliz said...

Dow way down.

Lawyerliz said...

What can be done to blast them out of West Va?

Lawyerliz said...

Dow down 701

LBD said...

Humm? no stat is perfect then miss representing is political seems to qualify as twisted. IMO In a economist world it might makes sense but to Joe on the street U-3 doesn't even exist as he doesn't understand there are 6 levels. Oh rejoice everyone is working and must be making money to live happily. Not even close. We have low employment here but wages on a median scale have a big spread. Labor shortage here is the low wage/short hours positions. Not my idea of a healthy economy. The Kleptoctrats control the money and grant themselves tax money to build fast food and hotel business on the interstate requiring low paid part time employees. We are now in to the second year of a local recession due to their actions. IMO.

Firemane said...

Regarding employment being local. BLS does provide state by state employment data:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2018/03/bls-unemployment-rates-lower-in-7.html

And almost half the states are at series low (series in this case begins in 1976).

https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-5paqWzO5xz8/WrUWPKcgsbI/AAAAAAAAuS8/3UWpkyz1RtgESR7QEMVCCMGtBQLTstTygCLcBGAs/s1600/StateUnemploy1Feb2018.PNG

Except for Alaska, every state is under 6%.

The problem with jobs as unemployment nears so called "full employment" is that the closer you get, the "less attractive" the remaining unemployed are. If you're among the last to get a job, chances are good that there is 'something' about you that is keeping it that way. Maybe you have a spotty work record ... a criminal past ... maybe you're just an awful interview. Or, perhaps you're a competent blow mold injection machine operator, in a state where all those jobs are taken, and you don't want to move. Maybe you're simply pricing yourself out of the market.

But moving states to get a job is a ***BIG*** deal - especially for someone without excess cash laying around, (which given the saving habits in the US, is nearly everyone). I actually got to see 2nd hand the downside results of a couple that moved from Virginia to NC chasing a job --- only to get down-sized 6 months after arrival. Then they stick it out too long looking for more work where they had just moved, (that year long lease impacting their decision, of course).

They moved AFTER they ended up homeless - living in the back of their Mini-Cooper, and snagging entry level jobs in Raleigh (after High Point didn't pan out). They lucked out huge by getting free room and board for a year while they got back on their feet from a stranger playing Good Samaritan.

I think many people in power (business and government) are too far removed from the reality of living paycheck to paycheck to appreciate how much people lean on "local" friends and family when changing locations. Last time I job hunted in a new city, I had the luxury of crashing on a friend' couch while looking. That alone seriously changes the risk equation of moving.

Lawyerliz said...

Which is why I proposed subsidizing moves. W. Va has been hopeless a long time. Coal is not coming back. If it's needed 200 years from now, well we can reopen the mines then
It is beautiful there

Firemane said...

LBD,

Completely agree that 'living wage' is a major issue - and median wage numbers don't capture that as well as quintiles. I'm just saying that castigating U3 based on wage anything is sort of like decrying batting average for not capturing home runs in any meaningful way. It wasn't any better (or worse) at capturing the economic picture in 1970 or 1990 than it is today.

Doesn't mean we cannot look for better stats - (median $/week) or OPS.

My point is that U3 wasn't any better at capturing the whole economic picture back when the economic tiers were much closer.

I'm all for looking for better statistics that help clear the picture of where things are. But, in most cases, if you start a new series, you have no historical trend data - so determining what is 'good' or 'bad' is impossible. We only have U-6 since 1992, and to date, it's still only been used as a political plastic bat with which to smack opponents with - falsely claiming it as the "real" unemployment rate. In "some" cases, it's possible to go back to old source material and create a new series that also goes backward in time, but those are rare - and tend to require a massive amount of research into pre-computer era references. (It was a massive undertaking getting ALL the MLB games into an historical database, and for most of that time, we're talking 20 teams playing 154 games a year.)

But, being FOR new stats that can clear the picture requires being wary of new (or old) stats that only cloud it. At some point, you latched onto P-rate as having value. For me, when P-rate suddenly became a major talking point in the news, I went and did my own research, so I could understand the data WITHOUT the political blathering from either side. That's when I discovered the long term male/female historical trends - which to date (except for Calculated Risk) I've never seen mentioned by press or pundits. And CR actually added his commentary regarding those trends after I sent him links to the data showing the reality.

As for Joe Q. Public's understanding -- they don't want understanding. They want simple. U3 is simple -- how many people who want a job, have a job? That's simple. Same reason batting average is still the most common stat displayed in baseball 30 years after the move to far superior stats began and 20 years after they gained traction within MLB.

You want a wage stat? Here's one.

In 1957, a full time minimum wage job generated 40% of the median household income of the day. Today it is about 28%. But female participation was still well under 50% at the time, so median household income in 1957 was 'mostly' single earner income. Another area where cultural change severely complicates the historic picture. The primary 'wage' data in press is "household income", which is vastly different depending on whether you're talking 1 or 2 incomes. So, how do they adjust the data to account for the shift from 30% female working age participation to 70%? They don't. Which makes historical use of median household income changes laughable even before bothering to look at changes within quintiles.

It REQUIRES understanding of the history of many moving parts to fairly judge the efficacy of any statistic. Sadly, we are a nation that is far more apt to latch onto whatever "truth" the pundits of "our" political bent spew than attempting to find any truth ourselves.

Lawyerliz said...

Error bars. You explain every month at that measurement are never perfect, so this is the best we can do. Like hurricane error bars which the weatherpersons explain every day when there is a hurricane that the line down the Middle is not exactly where it's going to go. Tbis is the best you can expect which is not quite correct either.

Lawyerliz said...

Dow down a mere 459.

Lawyerliz said...

New post?

Rob Dawg said...

Tejon Ranch at the moment and Home in a few hours. New post then.

Lawyerliz said...

I wonder how much Buffet lost?

EngineerJim said...

>I wonder how much Buffet lost?

Does it really matter ?
Buffett's net worth is so far beyond what any normal person has, that it's meaningless.

Lawyerliz said...

True. Maybe I just like to see big numbers. 16 jillion.

Lawyerliz said...

Down a mere
459.

Cinco-X said...

It's just a flesh would

LBD said...

Firemane, In conclusion we both agree that the data will mean something even imperfect but the average Joe takes it in a twisted way delivered in a propaganda fashion. Participation rate is not my idea of particularly good data but it is all we have. Household income is a way of the past and should be done on a job by job bases or person. It is fun to watch T gloat about U-3 just like O did. It is IMO U-3 is a good piece of data when a recession is in full swing and not trimmed by people leaving the work force like it has been for some time. I knew nothing until I started hanging around CR, What a great time it was. I still have a long way to go. Good chat.

LBD said...

Buffet plays both sides of the street. He didn't get where he is by playing nice. It's just a game to him.

EngineerJim said...

Anyone having a problem with Reddit HCN ?
My comments disappear immediately after they are posted. Is this a new feature?

Lawyerliz said...

I never went there.

Lawyerliz said...

Me too. I hope Tanya is having a glorious time in heaven howling with laughter

Lawyerliz said...

Or, are you really Fearless Fosdick?

Rob Dawg said...

We shall talk more of employment.

Yes, Reddit is wonky today.

New post with an eyepopping number.

Lawyerliz said...

Somebody doesn't like you?

Cinco-X said...

That's my porn name