Tuesday, February 10, 2009

James Bulger Strikes Again


Shasta Lake teachers hit $76 million lottery jackpot
SHASTA LAKE - A group of 15 teachers and administrators at Shasta Lake School, who've been playing the state lottery together for seven years, picked the winning numbers for a $76 million SuperLotto Plus jackpot that was drawn on Saturday.

IMO they've won the lottery every week for two decades.

Hothouse Politics

"Better never than late." - Rob Dawg on climate change legislation.

As you may have noticed lately the Congress and Federal government in general have been having a quiet period with not much happening to take up their attention. To address that dearth of pertinent events in need of their beneficence Ed Markey, chairman of the House energy and environment subcommittee has taken the lead.

From the FT:
Mr Markey said the debate in Congress was no longer focused on whether to pass climate change legislation but on how much to spend on it. His committee’s goal is to complete legislation by Memorial Day so it can go to the House floor.

“We know the G8 and the rest of the world is waiting for the United States to stop being the laggard and be the leader,” Mr Markey told CERA, a week-long energy conference that began on Monday. “There are potentially catastrophic consequences for the planet if we do not act.’’

Mr Markley said that neither the government or the private sector has invested enough in combating greenhouse gas emissions.

“The tools to solve these problems, in many instances, have not been invented yet,’’ Mr Markey said.

He urged Congress to set market-driven policies to give energy companies certainty and opportunities to participate in the “revolution” about to take place around climate change. He likened it to the developments that took place in telecommunications sector.

Where to begin? First, the US has been a leader. The rest of the world is fast adopting our positions vice AGW. Second, the entire AGW scheme is collapsing. Third, don't they have something better to do?

I'm getting tired of all this extraConstitutional meddling.

Pole Dancing

Despite the attempts of the Federal Reserve to drive such borrowing costs lower by purchasing home loans, average mortgage rates have risen from 5.04 per cent on January 13 to 5.51 per cent last Friday.

This from the FT. You know things are bad when the Rethugians are falling over themselves to out demon the Demoncrats. For instance:
The mortgage subsidy plan was a centrepiece of the Republicans’ proposal for an alternative stimulus to the versions pushed by the White House and congressional Democrats. The proposal would in essence cap mortgage rates at 4-4.5 per cent and would, its proponents say, help to stabilise house prices and hence prevent the downward spiral of falling asset values, bankrupt households and troubled lenders.

Sad. And the cracks re starting to show. Colusa County has decided that since State Treasurer Chiang is delaying payments to counties they will equally delay payments to the State. LA County is also considering the same. There was a bomb threat at a mall in Boise. Boise of all places. An thn there's Denniger:
Now let me explain what is almost certain to happen if you are foolish enough to let Taxcheat Timmy pull this garbage.

See, these assets really are trash. Yeah, right now they are kicking off cash flow. For now. But they're impaired and while their coupon will pay for a while they will ultimately default on their face value and recovery is pennies (and in the case of synthetics, zero) when they do.

So what happens here is that you provide 95% non-recourse financing. Sir Hedge Fund buys a buttload of this garbage having only 5-10% of the face at risk, and that's all they need to put up as well, since the government is going to provide the financing - as a "no recourse" loan (presumably very cheaply.) They get a 6-7% coupon which means that in one year they're covered, and in two they're making money like a madman, up 200% or more on their original risk capital.

100% annual returns with government guarantees. What's not to like?

Monday, February 09, 2009

A Tree Grows in Chi-town

ACORN. We've heard this before. Only difference is the $4.1 billion price tag. I don't need to explain where that "stimulus" goes. Other than that, SOP:
$50 million for the National Endowment for the Arts
$380 million in the Senate bill for the Women, Infants and Children program
$300 million for grants to combat violence against women
$2 billion for federal child-care block grants
$6 billion for university building projects
$15 billion for boosting Pell Grant college scholarships
$4 billion for job-training programs, including $1.2 billion for “youths” up to the age of 24
$1 billion for community-development block grants
$4.2 billion for “neighborhood stabilization activities”
$650 million for digital-TV coupons; $90 million to educate “vulnerable populations”


This is more and more looking like Christa McAuliffe pushing all the buttons.

Sunday, February 08, 2009

If it weren't so serious this would have devolved in farce long ago. Finally a little detail on the chickens panicking in Washington. Excerpts from the New York Times:
Wall Street helped produce the global financial and economic crisis. Now, as the Obama administration prepares to unveil a revised bailout plan for the banking system, policy makers hope Wall Street can be part of the solution.

Administration officials said the plan, to be announced Tuesday, was likely to depend in part on the willingness of private investors other than banks — like hedge funds, private equity funds and perhaps even insurance companies — to buy the contaminating assets that wiped out the capital of many banks.

OMFG moment. HEDGE FUNDS? What are they thinking? They want to introduce more leverage and debt?

The officials say they are counting on the profit motive to create a market for those assets. The government would guarantee a floor value, officials say, as a way to overcome investors’ reluctance to buy them.

Spine chills galore. "A way to overcome reluctance?" What, gold plate the turds?

Details of the new plan, which were still being worked out during the weekend, are sketchy. And they are likely to remain so even after Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner announces the plan on Tuesday.

Ahhh the announce that they will have a plan soon plan.

But the aim is to reduce the need for immediate federal financing and relieve fears that taxpayers will pay excessive prices if the government takes over risky securities. The banks created those securities when credit and home prices were booming a few years ago.

No, those securities created an environment of loose credit and house price inflation.

Besides devising a way to bring private investors into the bank bailout, the Treasury plan is expected to inject more capital into some banks and to give many homeowners relief from immediate foreclosures.

The worse keeps getting worser. Which of those are good ideas? Which in any way addresses the supposed problems?

It also is expected to increase financing for a Bush administration program intended to encourage investors to finance such things as student loans and credit card debt.

Student loans? Paid back with high paying jobs starting in the next few years?

The Treasury Department had intended to unveil the plan on Monday. But on Sunday Mr. Obama’s economic advisers said they would wait another day, to keep the focus on winning Senate approval of an economic stimulus program. Mr. Obama plans to promote the stimulus package in a televised news conference Monday night.

Let me translate. The Senate would balk if the details were known.

...After it turned out that the banks were in even worse shape than thought, the Bush administration decided it was more important to invest directly in the banks.

Well gee, shock surprise. It didn't work but this time for sure. Thus the accompanying graphic.

It was also unclear how the assets would be valued, raising political questions about whether the purchase prices would be fair both to the banks and to the taxpayers. But as those assets have remained on the banks’ balance sheets, they have continued to decline in value, producing more multibillion dollar losses.

And this stops the decline in value how? A "floor" is only risk limiting not value setting.

The securities are complex and hard to evaluate, and there is little public information about precisely which assets are owned by each bank. And some prospective purchasers say banks are not making many available for sale, or have refused to accept the prices being offered.

Another admission they are just guessing.

Cognitive Dissonance


Dissonance and consonance are relations among cognitions that is, among opinions, beliefs, knowledge of the environment, and knowledge of one's own actions and feelings. Two opinions, or beliefs, or items of knowledge are dissonant with each other if they do not fit together; that is, if they are inconsistent, or if, considering only the particular two items, one does not follow from the other.
1. One may try to change one or more of the beliefs, opinions, or behaviors involved in the dissonance;
2. One may try to acquire new information or beliefs that will increase the existing consonance and thus cause the total dissonance to be reduced; or,
3. One may try to forget or reduce the importance of those cognitions that are in a dissonant relationship (Festinger 1956: 25-26).


Today's mutually exclusive ideations come from the people selling this white elephant in Camarillo, CA. Everyone knows the true story of white elephants right? Not just useless but so much less than useless that the owner could openly flaunt the waste. Check out this description:
Truly one-of-a-kind large estate with three levels. This 8100+ sq. Ft. Gated Mediterranean Villa has it all. 7 Bedrooms 9 Bath, Theater Room, Private Office, formal Dining Room and Living Room, Oversized Family Room with Fireplace and Media Center. Huge Kitchen with Viking Stove. Built-in Espresso Maker. Massive Master Suite with Fireplace and Balcony. Spectacular Bathroom with His and Hers Sinks Jacuzzi Tub and Steam/Shower. Front-Entry has large Double Wrought Iron Doors with Bubble Glass. Beautiful Foyer with 25 foot Ceiling and Massive Motorize Chandelier that can be lowered. Five balconies, Custom Wood floors, Travertine and Tufted Carpeting. Hand Carved Built-in Cabinets, Central Vacuum, 3 Air-Conditioning Units, Walk-in Safe, Fire Sprinkler System. Exquisitely Decorated. Circular Driveway with Breezeway. Pebbled Bottom Pool and Spa. Covered Patio with Stamped Concrerte. Wrought Iron fence around pool. Horse Property. 4.6 acres This Home is Priced Millions Below Replacement Cost.

That last is worth repeating: "This Home is Priced Millions Below Replacement Cost."

Okay. Let's imagine Mr & Mrs Elephant Owner having a conversation.
"Honey, there's an idea forming in my head. The houses in the neighborhood have come down so much in price and ours has gone up so much we can rightsize our home and get rid of that pesky mortgage." "Oh honey, that's great. What do you think we can get?" "let's not get greedy and instead price for a quick sale:"

Jan 29, 2009 Listed $3,390,000 -- VCRDS #90001747
Apr 29, 2004 Sold $2,450,000 44.1%/yr
Nov 30, 2001 Sold $1,015,000 -2.1%/yr
Oct 15, 1991 Sold $1,259,027 --

And what does zillow that unreasonably sunny zestimator think? $1,863,500.

Update, the Popcorn Machine and an explanation:

About 5 years this home was used as the "Design House" a charitable event where designers show their stuff in individual rooms. The home theatre had that popcorn machine as a prop and the owners obviously decided to keep it.

Saturday, February 07, 2009

Late Night Raw Meat


Bloomberg: Feb. 7 -- Advanced economies are already in a "depression" and the financial crisis may deepen unless the banking system is fixed, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said.

“The worst cannot be ruled out,” Strauss-Kahn said in Kuala Lumpur, where he was attending a gathering of central bankers from Southeast Asia. “There’s a lot of downside risk.”


That's downside from here.

Signs of Implosion

What? There haven't been any signs before?!? No, not really. No circuit breakers in the markets, no home builder major bankruptcies, no domestic violence. The declines everywhere have been orderly for the most part. Don't mistake rapid for chaotic. Frankly I'm a bit amazed and worried that some things have held together this long. So what did I find? Nothing but a little old house. Actually a medium large new house.

9077 Goldenrod Ct
Hesperia, CA 92344
Price: $130,000

That's $59/sf and a bit off it's high sales price of $379,000 Jun '06. Short Sale. Beautiful new "turn key ready" home built in 2004. Huge kitchen with island and dual glazed windows to keep the house cool in the summer & warm in the winter. Laundry room is located upstairs for convenience and his & hers sink in master bedroom. Great family home in a beautiful neighborhood.

Now most likely this is some sort of come-on trying for a bidding war or perhaps just a Realitter® fishing expedition for clients knowing there's no chance of approval for this price but consider that 2/3rds off is what it takes to even get potential buyers' attention. The Antelope Valley real estate market is officially broken. I tried to get a Redfin map of REOs for this area and got an error of too many to display. Here's what it looks like zoomed up:

Looks like a lot of house for sale? No, that's just the REOs. Like I said broken.

Use it and lose it

Credit Card use continues to collapse.


The Federal Reserve issues a comprehensive report called G19 every month. It ain't very interesting unless you know what to look for. Much like yesterday's discussion of the equally information heavy EIA inventories the G19 is screaming "pull up, pull up!" The trillions in liquidity injection has had a negative effect on the 68% of the economy that is consumer consumption. And why not? Look at the 2% jump in new car auto loan rates in December. Reminds me of the old Irish joke.

Paddy: "Shawn, Shawn, I'm afraid this is it. I am at death's door and I have last request. When I'm gone pour this bottle of 40 year old Irish whiskey over me grave."

Shawn: "Of course old friend, anything but I have a question. Diya mind if I strain it through me kidney's first?"

And that's what we are getting, liquidity strained through the bankster's kidney's.

More on the multiplier effects of collapsing consumer credit later but for now ponder the fact that perhaps as much as half of decline isn't credit being paid down but written off by the banks.

Friday, February 06, 2009

$1500 New Auto Credit

Oh goodie. Straight from the taxpayer's pocketbook to the GMAC black hole. Let's be clear what the Senate is trying to do. They are trying to get consumers to take on more debt. This is a microcosm of their whole game plan. Time for someone to talk about the emperors clothes. Every single proposal from the smallest to the grandest ultimately involves some form of additional debt. This has to fail. It doesn't matter how many Nobel wanna bes make powerpoint and blog posts. The flaw is not inside the bounds of their thinking.

Okay, what is the practical effect of a $1500 new auto discount? Just the biggest unintended consequence imaginable. Every used car in the nation is now worth that much less. Used prices are tied to new. There are a whole lot more used vehicles than new. Instant deflation and another kick to the spiral.
-- National Fuel is reporting a loss for the quarter of $42.7 million or $0.53 per share. The loss is due to the previously announced $108.2 million (after tax), non-cash impairment charge to write down the book value of its oil and natural gas producing properties as a result of significantly lower commodity prices at December 31, 2008.

Ouch. Imagine that, losing money selling natural gas and petroleum products. Could be worse. You could be ""banking" on the expected future price of your products:

-- The Company is revising its GAAP earnings guidance range for fiscal 2009 to a range of $1.10 to $1.30 per share. This guidance includes the impairment charge ($1.35 per share) noted above, and assumes flat NYMEX equivalent pricing of $5.50 per MMBtu for natural gas and $45.00 per Bbl for crude oil for unhedged production for the remainder of the fiscal year.


NatGas $4.726 and Oil $41.32. And how have they done these last two years?

It reads like petroleum double down.

Everyone enjoy the long expected, overdue bear market head fake. This is the end on my 8200 attractor. 7900 will be the new neighborhood until next big drop.

By request:


Big Bad Voodoo Bonds



The moment has passed. This is the 10 year. Anybody glad they bought those 2.14159%s as a deflation hedge? What is the NPV of a Dec '18 2.1% in a 4% world? About $85. Ouch.

California took another ratings hit today. Still a long way to go and the States' lenders still have no clue. The Sacramento line is that debt always gets paid first. The Treasurer was just on the financial entertainment network saying exactly that. He even went so far as to say bondholders get paid before medical treatment for children. Anybody want to take the over on how long that bet lasts?

Thursday, February 05, 2009

Chart Patterns

I like look at pretty charts but if Citi and BAc have taught us anything charts are not investing tools. That said are there any chartists out there? Does this not look like a manufactured textbook example of head and shoulders to zero?

Hitting the House ATM


I was wondering about the people presently entering into preforeclosure. Using tax rolls, last sale date and loan amount I was able to uncover the following examples from nearby Somis:

5883 LA CUMBRE RD
SOMIS, CA 93066
Assessed Value $436406
Loan Amount $780000
Loan Date 10/13/2005

5187 DODSON ST
SOMIS, CA 93066
Assessed Value $227304
Loan Amount $584000
Loan Date 09/08/2006

4200 ASPEN LN
SOMIS, CA 93066
Assessed Value $361192
Loan Amount $750000
Loan Date 12/20/2005

We need a new term for this behavior. As the Fed chart indicates lots of this equity extraction went right back into the property bubble. These people doubled down on a losing margin position and now it's margin call time. These poor loosers effectively re-bought their own properties at the top of the market.

Tuesday, February 03, 2009

Twofer

Sometimes stuff happens. One kind of stuff is inexcusable like forgetting wagga's birthday. Cheers mate. Sorry. I may be buying a Volvo this week if that helps at all.

Sometimes you get pleasantly surprised. TJ of the long time "bear and comrade" fame, infamous blogger and long time reader/lurker called to say hello. Big shout out there TJ.

Sometimes it is a small world. At Jim the Realtor's 50 bday par-tah it was "small world" time. A fellow blogger sent their kid to a summer camp where I was a lifeguard a long time ago. And ChrisG 'bout fell over when he found out the supposedly normal guy he was talking to was really not so normal, he was me! Jim the (Really Old) Realtor didn't even try to cover up the cement scratches from where the minivan went into his pool.

Anyway. This morning Mrs. Dawg and I were on our morning "constitutional" and walked past a new candidate for leverage university senior project failure. We went a little further, 3.8 miles and in a less common direction and thus discovered what we'll call "The Bookends." Two houses, one street, two delinquencies, one owner. First up:
1925 Ramona


A $870k loan from the tippy toppy Oct 2005. Borrowers; Garry J & Christie J.

Next up the other end:
1324 Ramona

At least they bought after the peak, a whole 8 weeks later grabbing a sweet $682,500 mortgage on a house they paid $1,183,200 to buy. Currently for sale. $825k.

So read here and learn the darkside of the property ladder.

Sunday, February 01, 2009

Phase IV Commences


Sorry for the excessive down time. I've been a lazy slob, nothing more. Now on to the post.

Welcome to Phase IV of the World Economic Correction Hoocoodnode edition (WECH). Let's start by reviewing the First three phases for perspective.


Phase I; Prophets of Doom. Those who saw it coming no matter how much they expalined were not believed. I know some of that feeling.


Phase II; Watching the Detectives. With the first few predictions of the prophets coming true despite their being early, people started looking at their evidence.


Phase III; Underground Community. Effectively locked out of traditional corridors of influence the prophets turn to the intertubez and gain credibility.


So. Phase IV; what is that going to be? One suggestion is to strangle somebody just to make ourselves feel better. I have a better idea. I'll post when I get back from San Diego.

Sunday, January 18, 2009

All Your Thermostats Are Belonging to We

Welcome 21st Century. When you hear "smart grid" you need to start thinking socialized power. Rather than build capacity you'll hear about smarter uses of the electricity we already produce. By "smarter" the government means they know better what temperature your home should be than you do.

Saturday, January 17, 2009

Cars cars cars


One of the three major auto processing facilities in Port Hueneme, CA. Not only are they all full, they've leased additional space for overflow. Automobile prices are headed down.

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Barry Needs Us


13 Jan 09
RE: Administrative Priorities

Mr. President-elect:

Treasury Bond integrity. There is no greater concern nor any greater opportunity.

A nation that enjoys the respect and endorsement of the international debt markets can do anything. Anything. Not hyperbole but recognizing the reality of our circumstances.

Unfortunately, you inherit policies that appear almost designed to erode confidence and/or devalue the US Dollar. Reestablishing US creditworthiness won't be easy, painless or quick. Without it any other efforts will be for naught.

Monday, January 12, 2009

The Enzo of Auto Sales


Jean ValJean asks:

And speaking of predictions to the downside.. how about a thread for predictions of 2009 car/light truck sales?
I call 9.5 Million.


I'm normally not one for hyperbole but I don't think this is even close. 2009 is the year of the used car. First a little background:
2000-2007 New Auto Sales
13,181 13,510 13,639 13,594 13,609 13,551 13,271 13,671

This from the BTS.

The MSM is predicting 10.5m and JVJ is saying 8.5m. I'm saying 7.5m. We all know what's going down and normally I'd like Jean's number but there's a wildcard; deflation. The hit for a new vehicle purchase is bad enough but when residual value is a function of new model yer prices you don't want to take the chance that next years' model will be cheaper. Right now I'm chasing down something like a 2005 Volvo V70 2.5T. $14k is easy but I'm looking for an $11k cherry.

BTW, the Ferrari Enzo pictured above is being repaired by Ferrari. It "belonged" to a fugitive German software crook and crashed on PCH about 15 miles away. I just thought that the idea of autos being half-off was amusing.

Warren Warning


I guess if you are going to jump the shark" it's good that you own a motorcycle insurance company. Buffett bought Geico in 1996 and by all accounts is still a profitable and well run wholly owned subsidiary. The problem is what you pay is only part of what it costs to be insured. The rest comes from investment returns. You know like high value companies like Berkshire Hathaway:

And like Citigroup of the previous post seems somebody knows something based on the volume at the turns.

And now back to Sesame Street where we play "one of these things is not like the other:"

Those four lines are Citigroup (red), AIG (yellow), HIG (blue) and Berkshire Hathaway (green). What do you think? C, HIG, AIG are going to quadruple in price to get back to tracking BRK? There is always the other possibility.

"C"ing The Bottom


Somebody knows something. There was Citigroup all flush and happy with TARP money to swim in. Bloomberg reports an incredible piece of good news that proves financial engineering can paper over and structural defect. That article shows Citi "booking" a $10 Billion Gain on Morgan Stanley Deal. How you may ask incredulously? The pretax gain would come from writing up the value of Citigroup’s Smith Barney unit to a new price set by the deal, said the person, who declined to be identified because the talks are confidential. The gain of $5 billion to $6 billion after taxes would flow into Citigroup’s capital, a loan-loss cushion
Yep, a forced and subsidized merger of Morgan Stanley and Smith Barney for a fire sale $3 billion turns into a $20 billion deal.

Okay, look at the chart above. Look at the volume. Those of you so inclined can also look at the heavy volume on the open this morning (Mon, Jan 12). Somebody knows something and when the news hits the rest of us it will be in the form of a bill for the clean up.

Saturday, January 10, 2009

The Arlo Guthrie Strategy

In a previous post I suggested a store level protest of Oxnard's new sales tax increase. This was one reply:

Seriously, how will this help? The clerks suffer, the manager of the store may hear about it, but probably won't. Outside the store? Nobody will hear about it.

I guess I need to explain the Arlo Guthrie Strategy in his own words:
And the only reason I'm
singing you this song now is cause you may know somebody in a similar
situation, or you may be in a similar situation, and if your in a
situation like that there's only one thing you can do and that's walk into
the shrink wherever you are ,just walk in say "Shrink, You can get
anything you want, at Alice's restaurant.". And walk out. You know, if
one person, just one person does it they may think he's really sick and
they won't take him. And if two people, two people do it, in harmony,
they may think they're both faggots and they won't take either of them.
And three people do it, three, can you imagine, three people walking in
singin a bar of Alice's Restaurant and walking out. They may think it's an
organization. And can you, can you imagine fifty people a day,I said
fifty people a day walking in singin a bar of Alice's Restaurant and
walking out. And friends they may thinks it's a movement.

And that's what it is , the Alice's Restaurant Anti-Massacre Movement, and
all you got to do to join is sing it the next time it come's around on the
guitar.
Now Arlo was talking about the draft and the Vietnam War but regardless of the issue the concept is timeless.

Friday, January 09, 2009

Olympic Fail


From Reuters:
Home Depot ends Olympics sponsorship program
Thu Jan 8, 2009 3:03pm EST
ATLANTA (Reuters) - Home improvement retailer Home Depot Inc is ending a sponsorship program under which it paid full-time wages and benefits for part-time work to athletes training for the Olympic Games.

The company currently employs 98 people in the Olympic Jobs Opportunities Program, in which it had been a sponsor since 1992.

After March 2, those athletes will no longer receive full-time benefits. They can remain in their part-time jobs, apply for full-time positions, or discontinue their employment at Home Depot.

"We feel the time has come to look at new ways to enhance our brand and provide exciting, new programs that appeal to our customers and associates," spokeswoman company Jean Niemi said on Thursday.
Anybody who spins this badly deserves to to screw themselves. On second thought I'll just take a closer look at those rings.

Thursday, January 08, 2009

Sweet Onions

This from The Onion:

OS X Snow Leopard vs. Windows 7
Microsoft announced it will be releasing a new edition of its operating software, called Windows 7, while Apple is working on its new OS X Snow Leopard. How will they stack up against each other?

Citigroup Pulls a Casey

WSJ reports:
In a concession to lenders, if a lender is found to have violated the Truth in Lending Act during bankruptcy proceedings, the institution would be subject to fines, but would not have to forgive the loan, as is the case currently.
WTF?!?
Anyway, winter is almost over so it is time to get in shape for the spring rugby season. Scrum down everyone:

HMS Walmart Warns


StreetInsider reports on Walmart December sales. I will grant one excuse I usually dismiss. The weather was bad in some regions. Of course I've yet to hear good weather given any credit for increased sales.
"Due to the difficult economy and severe winter weather in some regions, the holiday season was more challenging for retailers than expected," said Eduardo Castro-Wright, vice chairman, Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. "We are pleased that we had positive traffic for the third month in a row and that Walmart performed relatively well given the environment."

EPS guidance $1.06 Nov 13th versus $0.91-$0.94 Jan 8th. The morning futures and the stock tanked in pre-market trading.

More evidence of containment not being contained. The talking heads were all inventing unsupportable theories of moving downscale or grabbing market share or I don't know, Princess Ponies pooping pillow mints.

It can only be hoped that bad news actually shows up in the markets. We've been disconnected for far too long. Otherwise we'll all be in the urinal:

Wednesday, January 07, 2009

2009 a Year to Endure

We got the end of year relief rally after meeting fund redemptions. 8800 and 8200 seem to bring back any pice tthat strays too far. Flat to a slow grind down from today's close to the inauguration and one last euphoria defiant bounce then the market opens for 2009. Right back down to 8200 then long slow grinds with occasional stairsteps down. All the way down to 6800. It may go breathtakingly below that very briefly but 6800 will be the new gravity well. We'll go into fall low 7000s. Finish? Not a clue. Ask my assistant:

Monday, January 05, 2009

The Tale of Three Januaries

Jan '07 Fed Funds Rate 5.25%, 30yr conforming mortgage 6.1%, ∂ 0.85%
Jan '08 Fed Funds Rate 4.00%, 30yr conforming mortgage 5.9%, ∂ 1.90%
Jan '09 Fed Funds Rate 0.25%, 30yr conforming mortgage 5.1%, ∂ 4.85%

This is near criminal. The Fed collectively forced rates down for one reason alone; to stimulate lending. Talk about unintended consequences. The picture is of course Janus for whom January is named. Fortunately my exaustive search of the intertubz reveals there is another Janus worhy of note; Samantha:


By demand another example of January:

Sunday, January 04, 2009

Looking For The Bottom


WSJ has an opinion below. My opinion is above, some truly spectacular multiple bottoms.
House prices fell 23% from their July 2006 peak to October 2008, the latest data available, based on the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price index, which tracks home values in 20 cities. Mr. Zandi expects an additional 10% drop to a bottom late this year.


Yet another 4th half of '08 recovery. Yawn.

Saturday, January 03, 2009

2008 Reflections


There's a story about a true believer facing a flood at his home. The fireman knocked on the door but he stayed put trusting his faith. A neighbor paddled up in a boat but he said no his faith would sustain him. On the roof with the water still rising he waves away the rescue helicopter trusting instead to his beliefs. He drowns. When he meets his maker in the great beyond he complains "Why didn't you warn me?" God replies; "Who do you think sent the fireman, neighbor and helicopter?" We already know one thing and one thing only but it is enough. When the bailouts stop working it will happen too fast to contain and we have been warned. Financial tricks work until they don't. They don't fail elegantly.

2008 was not the disaster, it was the warning.

Friday, January 02, 2009

The Sweetest Ride


Months Remaining: 10 months
Advertised Payment: $1,173.39 p/month
VEHICLE DETAILS
Actual Miles: 25,500 miles
Total Miles Allowed: 48,808
Miles Remaining: 23,308
Available Miles: 2,331 miles p/month
Leasing Company: Mercedes Benz Finan...
Vehicle Location: Camarillo, CA 93012
-------------------------------------------

Ahhh yes. I love the smell of desperation in the new year.