Housing Bubble, credit bubble, public planning, land use, zoning and transportation in the exurban environment. Specific criticism of smart growth, neotradtional, forms based, new urbanism and other top down planner schemes to increase urban extent and density. Ventura County, California specific examples.
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Federal Bailout Bill
"I felt a great disturbance in the Markets, as if millions of mortgagees cried out in joy and were suddenly rescued."
On days like this, I realize what a complete amateur sheep I am. Huge bailout, PMs sink, Dollar soars, financials rise a bit more. I simply do not understand.
Yeah, if only I'd managed to hang on to my 8 houses through the present day, you people would all be bailing me out of my toxic loans. Ah well...
Remember to visit my website and tell your friends about my exciting upcoming e-book. You too can learn the Casey Serin Method™ to scam banks consequence-free!!! ;-)
Syndicated political columnist and television pundit Robert D. Novak was issued a $50 traffic citation yesterday ...
"I can tell you what I saw. I was on K Street on my bicycle, and what I saw was a guy get hit by a black Corvette convertible. I see the guy go up on the hood, up on the windshield." As the Corvette turned right from 18th Street onto the service road beside K, Bono said, "the guy rolled off the hood and landed on the street."
Hell yes... and the more money I make, the more there is for the IRS, banks and credit car companies to seize from me whenever my assets are inevitably confiscated. ;-)
@ Lost Cause, Keith posted this on July 17th, that he would be absent for a week.
I'm sure when he returns in a day or two, he'll have some angry rant about my new project and hyper-gay picture. But I'm just trying to help people!** ------
It looks like the governator has decided to take your advice.
http://www.sacbee.com/749/story/1104742.html
$6.55/hour for all state employees should save some money. Yes, I know it's a negotiating tactic, but at least the powers that be are getting semi-serious.
Actually, yes; a little analogy I've been thinking about for some time.
Remember the old Dr. Suess classic "The Cat in the Hat"?
The remarkable thing about the pernicious stain that the Cat is trying to clean up is that it sticks to everything that they use in the attempt. The stain comes off the old item, only to adhere--larger and uglier--to the new item.
The stain really wasn't that large when it started with the aggressive sub-prime lenders, although it did make it impossible for them to borrow, and therefore survive. But when the investment banks jumped in and bought out a number of struggling mortgage lenders, surprise! the stain stuck to them, and all of a sudden, they found their sources of financing drying up. When they successfully lobbied the government to have Fannie and Freddie bail out much of the mortgage lending market, the market reacted by dumping the GSEs and their debt, perceiving--correctly--that the stain had migrated to them and was larger than ever.
And now, virtually inevitably, the Federal government has moved in to remove the stain. Say, I wonder where that stain's going to go . . .
P.S. And approaching doomsday for California. When Armageddon really hits is if California goes to the bond market and finds no offers for their bonds. Yes, they can back some bonds with lottery revenues, but other than that, I seriously doubt that they will be able to borrow money at anything short of CashCall™ rates.
No, They are not getting serious. Both sides finally realize they are deadlocked and there is very little pressure to resolve it so they are going to go around making silly proposals.
I've been so far out in front of the California Emergency that I've been forced to wait up for everyone to catch up so I don't look so morose. I'll just remind you that I said the first impacts would be at the beginning of August when short term COPs and the like would quoted extremely high or no bid. I also predicted that at the same time monthly revenues would come in that destroy budget assumptions and send the 5 back to huddle. Yes, Ahnald listened to me for once and it worked. Don't be surprised to see COLA increases suspended next.
The only good that could come out of this is that no matter what the agreement the taxpayers are going to slaughter any new debt based Propositions on the Nov. ballot. Bye bye HSR.
Easy solution to the CA budget (or lack of) crisis. New law: If a budget is not passed before 1 July, EVERYONE in the legislature is out and is banned from holding public office for life.
I'm thinking we'd have a budget on time, every year. Most of them would never survive in private industry.
Back to the "bailout". Haven't we discussed this before and isn't it just political window dressing. Most people won't qualify for one reason or another and the politicians will find the odd deserving case to enable them to say See we helped people in mortgage trouble.
The one big change is the increase in the FHA limit. This will allow FHA loans in higher rent districts - will help out the CA market quite a bit. Fixed rate, reasonable interest loans.
The housing bill wasn't as big of an issue until the Fannie/Freddy blank check got slipped in at the last minute. Now it's a really big--multi-multi-billion, if not trillion--isue.
And California's problems cannot be completely solved by the legislature; they have a veritable slew of Propositions they have to work around. Good luck unwinding even a few of the Propositions (like the notorious Prop 13) that are putting immense pressure on the state budget. California should be an effective warning to other states: leave the legislating to the legislature, that's why a representative democracy is representative.
Minimum wage is going to not stimulate the economy, but perhaps it will inspire more sympathy for our working poor. But usually republicans just kick the poor. This one creates them, and then kicks them.
PV, Prop 13 does not put pressure on the State budget. It is a reliable and predictable source of revenue. A gift that keeps on giving. For but one saving grace nearly every county is seeing an increase in gross property taxes despite some substantial decreases in individual assessments. Prop 13 is a limit on the power of government to arbitrarily charge a captive revenue pool.
34 comments:
On days like this, I realize what a complete amateur sheep I am. Huge bailout, PMs sink, Dollar soars, financials rise a bit more. I simply do not understand.
5100 Balfour Rd
Brentwood, CA
Sales History:
Dec 20 2002: $280,000
May 14 2004: $360,000
Aug 05 2005: $479,000
Current Listing Price:
$199,900
Anybody got more to add?
Yeah, if only I'd managed to hang on to my 8 houses through the present day, you people would all be bailing me out of my toxic loans. Ah well...
Remember to visit my website and tell your friends about my exciting upcoming e-book. You too can learn the Casey Serin Method™ to scam banks consequence-free!!! ;-)
ahhh yes, capitolism without the consequences....
If you want to see who voted for this steaming mess,
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=h110-3221
(sorry, couldn't get tags to work)
Since I'm up for jury duty next month I'd just like to say
After seeing cr*p like this I'd *never* vote to convict the most outrageous, unrepentent, willful federal tax evader.
And no, I won't tell you that in voir dire.
In other related news:
Syndicated political columnist and television pundit Robert D. Novak was issued a $50 traffic citation yesterday ...
"I can tell you what I saw. I was on K Street on my bicycle, and what I saw was a guy get hit by a black Corvette convertible. I see the guy go up on the hood, up on the windshield." As the Corvette turned right from 18th Street onto the service road beside K, Bono said, "the guy rolled off the hood and landed on the street."
Is Casey still holding GSPG?
Is Casey still holding GSPG?
Hell yes... and the more money I make, the more there is for the IRS, banks and credit car companies to seize from me whenever my assets are inevitably confiscated. ;-)
This U.S. dollar is not toilet paper.
What do you do when a bank gives you counterfit money and won't admit it?
http://www.local6.com/news/16960809/detail.html
These lovely ladies seem to have a better understanding of internet traditions than McCain.
Casey,
What have you done with Keith at Housing Panic?
@ Lost Cause, Keith posted this on July 17th, that he would be absent for a week.
I'm sure when he returns in a day or two, he'll have some angry rant about my new project and hyper-gay picture. But I'm just trying to help people!**
------
** by stealing their money. ;-)
Yeah, I saw a picture that looked just like Casey.
Bowie
Bowie? Nah, I'm a dead ringer for Peter Tork of the Monkees....
Not that there's anything wrong with that! :-D
A few years on crack will get rid of that boyish grin.
When I was a kid I thought I could be cool to finger my eyeball out of the sink.
Not to mention the SINK.
Dawg,
It looks like the governator has decided to take your advice.
http://www.sacbee.com/749/story/1104742.html
$6.55/hour for all state employees should save some money. Yes, I know it's a negotiating tactic, but at least the powers that be are getting semi-serious.
I miss Flailing Forward.
P.S. Arnaald is an idiot.
Short Primer for now. Enjoy!
"Anybody got more to add?"
Actually, yes; a little analogy I've been thinking about for some time.
Remember the old Dr. Suess classic "The Cat in the Hat"?
The remarkable thing about the pernicious stain that the Cat is trying to clean up is that it sticks to everything that they use in the attempt. The stain comes off the old item, only to adhere--larger and uglier--to the new item.
The stain really wasn't that large when it started with the aggressive sub-prime lenders, although it did make it impossible for them to borrow, and therefore survive. But when the investment banks jumped in and bought out a number of struggling mortgage lenders, surprise! the stain stuck to them, and all of a sudden, they found their sources of financing drying up. When they successfully lobbied the government to have Fannie and Freddie bail out much of the mortgage lending market, the market reacted by dumping the GSEs and their debt, perceiving--correctly--that the stain had migrated to them and was larger than ever.
And now, virtually inevitably, the Federal government has moved in to remove the stain. Say, I wonder where that stain's going to go . . .
P.S. And approaching doomsday for California. When Armageddon really hits is if California goes to the bond market and finds no offers for their bonds. Yes, they can back some bonds with lottery revenues, but other than that, I seriously doubt that they will be able to borrow money at anything short of CashCall™ rates.
@Winston
No, They are not getting serious. Both sides finally realize they are deadlocked and there is very little pressure to resolve it so they are going to go around making silly proposals.
Also, Casey realized the credit crisis was not over, so he took his webiste down and is no longer trying to help people with credit problems
escapemyhouse.com
I've been so far out in front of the California Emergency that I've been forced to wait up for everyone to catch up so I don't look so morose. I'll just remind you that I said the first impacts would be at the beginning of August when short term COPs and the like would quoted extremely high or no bid. I also predicted that at the same time monthly revenues would come in that destroy budget assumptions and send the 5 back to huddle. Yes, Ahnald listened to me for once and it worked. Don't be surprised to see COLA increases suspended next.
The only good that could come out of this is that no matter what the agreement the taxpayers are going to slaughter any new debt based Propositions on the Nov. ballot. Bye bye HSR.
Easy solution to the CA budget (or lack of) crisis. New law: If a budget is not passed before 1 July, EVERYONE in the legislature is out and is banned from holding public office for life.
I'm thinking we'd have a budget on time, every year. Most of them would never survive in private industry.
Back to the "bailout". Haven't we discussed this before and isn't it just political window dressing. Most people won't qualify for one reason or another and the politicians will find the odd deserving case to enable them to say See we helped people in mortgage trouble.
The one big change is the increase in the FHA limit. This will allow FHA loans in higher rent districts - will help out the CA market quite a bit. Fixed rate, reasonable interest loans.
The housing bill wasn't as big of an issue until the Fannie/Freddy blank check got slipped in at the last minute. Now it's a really big--multi-multi-billion, if not trillion--isue.
And California's problems cannot be completely solved by the legislature; they have a veritable slew of Propositions they have to work around. Good luck unwinding even a few of the Propositions (like the notorious Prop 13) that are putting immense pressure on the state budget. California should be an effective warning to other states: leave the legislating to the legislature, that's why a representative democracy is representative.
Minimum wage is going to not stimulate the economy, but perhaps it will inspire more sympathy for our working poor. But usually republicans just kick the poor. This one creates them, and then kicks them.
PV,
Prop 13 does not put pressure on the State budget. It is a reliable and predictable source of revenue. A gift that keeps on giving. For but one saving grace nearly every county is seeing an increase in gross property taxes despite some substantial decreases in individual assessments. Prop 13 is a limit on the power of government to arbitrarily charge a captive revenue pool.
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