Yesterday I went to IndyMac to cash out my Jumbo CD. Turns out a "30 day certificate" means 30 elapsed days so I had to go back again this morning. This is that story. First, I didn't panic or get nervous, I was merely seeking safe returns. I had a 6mo CD as part of a ladder that expired June 2nd. I figured at the time January that 6 months was a conservative estimate of how much time they had left. At the end of those 6 months I thought they worst case had the summer to survive so I opted for the 1 month both for safety and in anticipation of better rates. Over the last week i was getting nervous. Well not nervous really as the lost interest and/or any delay would have been minimal no matter what. Ultimately it was a bit of convenience and a bit of epicaricacy along with smugness at having ridden the scariest ride in the park and escaping with a prize.
So, Tuesday morning. I got there at 8:50 and was 5th in line. Two in front were clueless, just oldsters doing some early banking. Two knew, one like me quietly or routinely repositioning and another who was making a deposit and didn't mind if there'd be a new name on the door come Monday morning. My turn came and I discovered the maturity was Wednesday not Tuesday. Filled out the paperwork and went back to work.
Wednesday morning I was the only one there at opening, cleared and closed with no problem and joked with the teller about wearing a new name badge in a few days. The teller next to here was talking on the phone about all the news article she found with a google search. Opened a money market account at my long time credit union paying more than the 9 month CD rate at IndyMac. How crazy is that? It does provide a hint for future rate seekers. Lightbulbs glow brightest just before burning out. Banks offer very high rates just before going under.
This is just the first branded bank to run afoul. The real nervous time will be after a few are shuttered and the FDIC & FSLIC run out of money to paper over the mess.
23 comments:
Man, I am pretty ticked about now. I tried to short 1000 shares quite a while back at $32, but eTrade said they had no shares available to short.
No shares for you.
So Robbo, since Lou Minatti has temporarily (?) vanished into the ether, what are you thoughts on:
Oil: The mother of all speculative bubbles, or the end of human civilization? :-p
Civilization is screwed. You are ample evidence of that.
As to oil, most certainly a bubble of earth shaking proportions. The Northern States are already balking at the delivery prices for heating oil. Demand destruction is massive and the tankers are playing cute offshore. Below $100 and possibly back to the honest value of $85. That's $65 for the stuff and $20 for the political uncertainty.
Civilization is screwed. You are ample evidence of that.
Hey, I resemble that remark!! ;-)
As for the banks, my own shenanigans may well singlehandedly put Wells Fargo out of business. They still owe me that $1000 that they stole from me [after I stole 50 times as much from them]!!
And good news casey! You no longer owe Countrywide that $50,000.
Seriously Rob, how did you guys become such Casey experts? I missed that era.
"When asked how many homes had been sold in the past month she simply responded, 'Uh huh. Thank you. Yes!' and handed us some additional literature on the property."
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/2008/07/analyst-sees-gh.html
And good news casey! You no longer owe Countrywide that $50,000.
Like you would say, Robbo, "As if I had any intention of paying it anyway..." ;-)
Who's first to jail -- me, Angelo Mozilo, or the entire Congress? ;-p
W -
For a while, this place as "All Casey, All the time". Rob was running Casey info outside of CS's control. The stuff CS did not want out tended to surface here.
It was amusing... I kind of miss those days - when ever I did something stupid, I could always look it at what CS was doing and know that what ever I had done I was in better shape than he was.
Civilization is screwed. You are ample evidence of that.
Can you clarify Rob? The real Casey Serin, or someone who would pretend to be the real Casey Serin 12 months after the story died?
We pretend this Casey is the real Casey. The story is not dead. The real Casey is still causing havoc. Do you think Countrywide might have liked their $50k recently? Maybe we hould ask the 7000 former CFC employees if maybe they blame him.
The real Casey Serin, or someone who would pretend to be the real Casey Serin 12 months after the story died?
I'm just trying to keep the emotions hot until the authentic flamboyant divorcée makes his inevitable return.
The story ain't dead until the mop-topped failure hears the clank of the steel bars behind him. ;-)
Wow,
You guyz are getting too Post-post-modern for me to deal with at this hour.
Another classic film sans cute dogs:
We've met before, haven't we?
I don't think so. Where was it that you think we met?
At your house. Don't you remember?
No, no I don't. Are you sure?
Yes, of course. As a matter of fact, I'm there right now.
Casey has updated serin.us
Off topic, Rob, I'm warming up to your theme that the CRE bust is going to hit hard. Just took a trip up to the broader NYC/NJ/CT region; absolutely huge amounts of new office space going up. Massive fifty-plus floor buildings, and not with small footprints, but with gigantic warehouse-size footprints; and, inevitably, with the logo of a financial institution on the outside. There is a lot of office floor space going up here in the DC area, but not as much as the NYC area. Combine that with widespread layoffs and the slowdown in retail, and CRE is looking very, very bad going forward.
PV,
You'd be hard pressed to go off topic here. ;-)
Anyway, I take you saw my quoting you over on CR? I'm glad my CRE bit is gaining credence. It gets tiring spending all my time in the wilderness only to be proven right and drowned out by all the people arriving late to the position. What oyu noticed is a real problem. Planning and approvals are taking so long what you see now going up was conceived in 2004 based on 2005 projections. Remember 2005? This is gonna hurt. First the banks but then the cities. They budgeted on those shells being full of tax paying activities.
Look also for shadow inventory. A lot of tilt up 40,000sf buildings have 3000sf of offices and a showroom. The rest is the boss hiding a speedboat from Mrs. Boss and the furniture from his first divorce.
PV- I just did another market survey in Queens and LI for 2 50,000 buildings. I did the same thing last year and got nothing. This time I saw an abundance of sites, both existing space and build-to-suits. People that didn't want to deal with my last year are now bending over backwards. Lots of "well I had a mortgage company in here but they just moved out/went under"! I am looking forward to some good proposals soon.
KC- Hey I finally just caught your Dr. Phil episode, you were on as a rerun today!
Skip
Murse Boi was just rerun on Dr. Phil.
I threw up a little in my mouth.
Murse Boi was just rerun on Dr. Phil.
... and in the six months since the original airing, I'm pleased to say that I *still* haven't faced any consequences for my criminal acts, despite thousands of other lesser mortgage-related crimes being prosecuted nationwide.
Ahh, what a life!! :-)
Happy Independence Day, Robbo!!
Here at the Serin household, my parents and I actually celebrate our own little holiday --"Dependence Day" -- which commemorates the fact that I'll probably be dependent on them until they take their final breaths... it's all good! :-)
I hate to admit but I miss Casey. I wonder how he's doing.
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