Tuesday, September 02, 2008


The Financial Entertainment Network is always good for laughs.

The 3:00PM ET headline is about the Dow being up as much as 250 points (246) during the day. The ticker read minus 56 as they spoke those words.

This is classic end game behavior. Head fakes and trend violations. Oil under $110. Of course oil is under $110. Even blended the ultimate consumers of petroleum products are not willing to pay even $90. This is where the market "trading" oil runs smack into the real market. This part is easy. New England is not filling their winter heating needs. And that means a lot of those people are either tapped out or planning on not buying at all. Good news for diesel consumers. Home heating oil is essentially diesel. [They come from the same fraction.]

Financials are only losing a little. This after a couple of up weeks. Another head fake. IMO nothing but market manipulation and lies. Airlines are up big. That's insane. The airlines couldn't make money with $40 oil. Apple and RIMM off moderately. Crackberry I understand but APPL is piling up multiple back to back blowout quartersand poised to get $1500 of my money for my kid off to UCLA in 3 weeks.


ratlab said...


Ahh, my alma mater.

Rob Dawg said...

Ahh, my alma mater. [UCLA]

Should we reconsider? ;-)

Truth, she got into a bunch of colleges just not Harvard. Their loss in my not so honest and my honest opinion.

The economics are such that Harvard would have probably cost us less. California is in its' nadir.

Casey Serin said...

Robbo... I'm out of the closet! ;-)

It's so liberating to tell everyone, even anonymous people over the Internet. When I told my parents, they just said, "Really?? We couldn't tell.", and then smirked... which was a better response than I was anticipating. :-)

Rob Dawg said...

Jeez... I was eating. Fer gawds sake warn us.

Benoit™ said...

At the mere mention of Chris Record, Casey turned on comment moderation and is redacting comments left and right. So much for being open and "true", eh?

He owes Record roughly $25,000 BTW. He may have sold a whole bunch of shares to pay him off.

Rob Dawg said...

Is there no end of bridges for our little Hobbit to burn?

wagga said...

Hobbits live under bridges?

Rob Dawg said...

Eventually, yes.

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

Just stopped by true KC and I guess he is pretty emo. He will be back, and so will the pile on.

Rob Dawg said...

Casey got away with a massive string of crimes and wasn't satisfied. Now his past sins are catching up.

Casey Serin said...

Casey got away with a massive string of crimes

I'm still committing various "crimes against nature". ;-)

Luckily these practices aren't illegal anymore... if anything, they're encouraged in parts of California. heh.

con said...

@Benoit: "He owes Record roughly $25,000 BTW. He may have sold a whole bunch of shares to pay him off."

Owes for what? Is this phony tuition $$? Please explain, thanks!

Benoit™ said...

Con, Chris Record is the guy who recruited Casey into NRU. Classes cost $16,000 ... instead of paying upfront, Casey took out an [apparently personal] $20,000 loan with Record -- $16K for the "classes", and an extra $4K for unknown purposes, probably travel and related expenses.

This was in late 2006, I believe. Record originally tacked on a 10% "balloon interest payment", so that Casey would have to pay back $22K on the $20K loan.

Well, Casey of course ignored his obligations and, to date, hasn't repaid the loan. He briefly mentioned that Record has been unofficially accruing interest on the loan, and that the total amount currently owed is roughly $25,000 ...

Hope that made sense. ;-)

Rob Dawg said...

I was in the Ontario Mills Outlet Mall on Saturday. There was a NRU kiosk hawking their crap in the promenade.

The_Scum said...

Still waiting for SKF to go south of $110 to load up the truck. I missed my opportunity this morning. Such is life.

Tomorrow is another day. With SKF at $113.xx if the market bounces up I will have a chance again.

So will oil stabilize at $100 or continue to $80? I think that the price of oil (and Friday bank failures) will determine how long SKF at $110 is underwater. The market is already losing steam even with oil drops.

Rob Dawg said...

SKF has to revisit the low $90s even if you want to call it technical. I'm thinking it needs to go there just to signal capitulation.

The_Scum said...

Greed versus fear, greed versus fear.

Ticker Last RSI7d RSI7w RSI7m

SKF * 113.38 33.24 41.65 52.69

RSI's still above 30 across the board.

52 week low at 71.56, 52 week high 211.75.

Last touched low 90's back in May after the FED saved the financials for good.

Wait for sub 100 and risk financial apocolypse or invest too early? I was waiting for sub 100 but my patience has gotten thinner.

Greed versus fear.

The_Scum said...

One last post to myself and whoever reads it....if oil stops around $100 then SKF under $110 is a good buy.

If oil drops further to around $80 then we see SKF retouch low 90's.

Just thinking aloud by typing on Dawg's blog.

Rob Dawg said...

You have to be scared of something that was 200 six weeks ago and now 110. WTF was it doing up there? I don't see investable behavior.

We saw the same with glod and oil. Its like the rats are all scurrying o the same corner of the sinking boat looking for a safe place to hide their cheese.

con said...

@benoit: "Hope that made sense..."

Well that certainly is another most excellent bus throwing under story, lol....

Since Casey's GSPG isn't marginable because it's under $5.00, I wonder who/what kind of loan he's been referring to for that? Any ideas, anyone?

The_Scum said...

"Rob Dawg said...
You have to be scared of something that was 200 six weeks ago and now 110. WTF was it doing up there? I don't see investable behavior."

I don't deny that...like I said...fear versus greed. The worse than a casino like market schizophrenic behavior accelerates every day.

Don't confuse investment with overhyped emotional and trendrunning excess mixed with manipulation and fundamentals.

That is what a SKF play is.

Buy in low enough to sleep restlessly and then wait until you are above water enough so that fear, kid's college tuition and ability to pay the Gov that 30% short term tax means you sell.

In the meantime, you're betting against the FED, Goldman Sachs, the Treasury and every investment bank that ever stole a dollar from a blind grandma.

I never claimed SKF was an investment. It's a short or medium term bet depending on how much you lose or when you take the profit and what your tolerance for fear versus greed is.

Rob Dawg said...

Agreed. I mean after all double ultra short? You'd be crazy not to think of it as anything other than gambling. The concern was with the blatant manipulation and the house rules. As you describe the money is in calling when the lies break down.

Dow futures off 55 an hour before the open. Looks like a grinding moderate down day but the recent volatility could whipsaw all over.

Lost Cause said...

Wow, Rob, UCLA is a big deal. Congrats on your daughter.

Rob Dawg said...

Thanks, you are correct. This was the largest pool of applicants in history. 55,000 qualified applicants, roughly 8500 letters and 4300 expected. That's top tier surely. Hard sciences, biology plant genetics. I think she's picking a growth industry. Back in the 60s there was this huge push and now that group is retiring at 3x the current replacement rate. She wants to grad in 3 1/2 years and get a company to send her straight to a masters at UC Davis. Good plan IMNSHO.

bohica said...

When our child went to college, we made a deal to buy all her A's.
She graduated with a 3.86, so we then paid her Masters in full.
She is now one of many vice-presidents at Morgan-Stanley.
In 4 years she'll be 40.
In three years I'll be retired.

Good luck, my friend.
The above mentioned scenario was not necessarily a bump-free road, but it has been very rewarding for all of us.

segfault said...

She wants to grad in 3 1/2 years...

Don't let her! I could have and I'm glad I didn't. Take a couple of leisurely 12-hour semesters instead of getting out one semester early.

Rob Dawg said...

I was on a 5 year plan due to transfers and Coop jobs. I agree that taking a full 4 is a good idea but in the UC system working the schedule for 3 1/2 will probably result in a full 4. It is the exception to get through in just 4. Second this little go getter is one AP score short of being a Sophomore in standing. There are credit hours to give.

Sadly she has already met a rugby player and has her own "soda" mug. I played rugby, I had a"soda" mug. Hopefully she has the sense I did not.

Rob Dawg said...

Breaking news. ResCap cutting 5,000 jobs.

Pleather Murse said...

Those ultrashorts scare me and they should scare anyone. More power to you if you know what you're doing, but I don't like being whiplashed to death or having to sit at my monitor every second digging my nails into the arms of my chair as I watch that line go up and down.

I'm something of an ETF fanatic. I keep on my watch list about a dozen of the major sector ETFs (XLK, XLF, XHB, XLE, DIG and DUG) and the index ETFs (QQQQ, QLD, QID, and my current favorite SSO). I realize some of these are ultras and ultrashorts, though. I rarely play them but I do watch for anomalies.

My current strategy is the tried and true blood on the streets watch. I look for unjustified sudden downturn in the major indexes then jump on the SSO (the ultra S&P etf)), ride it for a few days or a week and get out.

It's not rocket science. I'm obviously just riding the indexes but shaving off the bottoms so my results should be better than just sitting in an index for a long period. I don't go nuts otherwise I'd be getting killed with transaction fees and short-term cap gains naturally. It's not an everyday trade, just a once or twice a month trade.

Tach said...

Hey Rob,

In the biological sciences, it's generally not necessary to pay for graduate school.

Most schools actually provide a stipend (it's not a whole lot, these days probably in the range of ~25k per year).

Just FYI

ratlab said...

Rob, they let me graduate... you might want to reconsider. ;-)

Rob Dawg said...

Based on the market I'd not be surprised to see her picked up Junior Year for an internship and stipend.

good point. ;-)
UCLA undefeated this season having defeated every ranked team they've faced.