Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Case Schiller Loss Trend


Slightly modified by a CR suggestion:

12 comments:

Mr. Outspoken said...

I wonder what that chart pattern would be called? Twin peaks? Penelope Peaks? [First]

Rob Dawg said...

Mortgage Pig™ seasonality laid over a rising trend of higher highs and higher lows.

NoVa Sideliner said...

OK Rob, I finally, a year or two later, gave in to the Beast and set up a Google account so I don't have to be a lurker on your blog.

Those trends seem to show that in a falling market, hope springs eternal in the sellers's eyes, as they are willing to suffer only modest price drops in the spring and summer months. But as autumn arrives and brings the end of the "moving" season, so does the grim realization that they aren't going anywhere unless they really drop the price even more.

It will be interesting to see how this pans out in 2009. A lot of that might depend on whether the banks are ready to just accept the losses and dump the REO's they've been sitting on.

w said...

Incredible symmetry.

Mike said...

So I was browsing some new listings today and came across this fine place:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Ventura/1300-Saratoga-Ave-93003/unit-1304/home/4446099

Peaked at $275k, now $99k. Mortgage would be around $430/mo. But here is the kicker. HOA fees are $432/mo!

Any thoughts on where HOA fees are going? They kind of have a chicken and egg problem high causing and begin caused by higher vacancy rates.

I dont think that $430 HOA fees on a crappy condo in Ventura is reasonable though. Any data on historic HOA fees?

Rob Dawg said...

Hey, a big shout out to NoVa. Welcome.

Mike, at first I thought that must be a mistake. Maybe she meant $432/yr paid monthly? But, no you are correct. The only good news is that includes taxes.

I still have to ask you what motivated you to look at condos in this market? For the same monthly price you can get this cutie:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Ventura/345-W-Prospect-St-93001/home/4388402

Mike said...

Dawg, not looking to buy. Looking to look :) As a responsible saver throughout this housing ordeal, seeing home prices on this crap plummet is one of the few things that gives me pleasure these days ;-)

I am in stand-by mode right now. I would really love to buy a nice home for a reasonable price, but as you know, the only deals out there right now are pretty much low end crap. I am waiting for the stuff that is currently in the $650-$700k to come into non-jumbo loan territory.

w said...

Hey Mike, you wouldn't happen to be moving today would you?

Rob Dawg said...

When the time comes I will be buying either 3-4 SFRs or perhaps a couple of fourplexes. That time is not now but I will give plenty of warning. IIRC I last said I will raise my head out of the foxhole in Sept/Oct. I can safely predict that it will be a wild summer. Especially for top half California.

Rob Dawg said...

Mike,
If you can get him to talk about it ask "w" about his latest score.

w said...

I have a suspicion it is Mike's score too.

Mike said...

Nope, not moving today so I dont think that the "score" you guys are talking about is one that I was in on. Should I be bummed? Sounds like it. Spill the beans man ;) Did you scoop up some of that River/park Section 8?