Wednesday, April 29, 2009

SouthWest Nowheresville

I think I've found my poster child for the SoCal housing bubble. Check out this neighborhood in Palmdale.

That black line across the top of the picture is the California aqueduct. Also while you cannot see it, running through the center of this development is the San Andreas Fault.
Here are a couple examples:



How would you like to be number 3 asking $450 for a smaller house on a smaller lot with a higher cost basis than number 1 above asking just $275k?
Oh, and those "Last Sale" numbers were first sales so these beauties will not show up in the Case-Schiller Index.

19 comments:

Mike said...

Hey, did you find the river/park of the desert?

Rob Dawg said...

"NorthEast Riverpark." I like it!

I'm still hearing rumors that Riverbottom may not open the stores on time, some not at all.

sm_landlord said...

Are the "Riverbottom" stores supposed to go in that big ugly building that is under construction nearby? It looked like a monument to tin last time I drove by.

BTW, did I see you call for an oil glut this summer on CR today? Wondering about your rationale... Sure, there is a lot in storage, but wouldn't that require a big additional falloff in demand?

sm_landlord said...

Oh, and I see that the fantasy lives on in Palmcaster...

JP said...

Oh, and those "Last Sale" numbers were first sales so these beauties will not show up in the Case-Schiller Index.Nice catch. Anyone have a link on CS that explains this part of their methodology? TIA.

Rob Dawg said...

sm_l,
Yes, the largest port in Europe, Rotterdam is at capacity and Royal Dutch Shell is literally floating storage with idled tankers hoping for long futures deliveries this fall. The Texas ports and midwest refineries are slow. Read this: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/8480886

Hey, admit it; you laugh at "Riverbottom."

Rob Dawg said...

Methodology:
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.article/0,0,0,0,1145771394017.html

Rob Dawg said...

Are the "Riverbottom" stores supposed to go in that big ugly building that is under construction nearby? It looked like a monument to tin last time I drove by.Yup, that be them and in classic Oxnard fashion the parking lot is a disaster and the ingress/egress FUBAR. And it goes without saying that there isn't enough parking.

sm_landlord said...

Yeah, "Riverbottom" reminds me of the homeless that used to camp out in the bottom of the Ventura river - right near there, as I recall. And if that river ever hits flood stage again, they'll all be livin' down in the river.

Thanks for the link to the refinery story. Amazing how cyclical refinery prices are, and how a lack of refining capacity was a huge problem last year. I don't see this country switching to electric cars any time soon, given the general failure of the products. There was a story in one of the dead tree papers today about how lame and far away market the new Tesla product is.

So I guess I'm more bullish on oil once the ships unload - they can't be storing more than a few week's consumption or so.

JP said...

Thanks Dawg. I haven't dug thru the whole thing yet, but the summary on pg 16 sounds like any pair of sales counts in the index.

A quick search of "new sales" or "first sale" didn't pick up how they do the omissions. Anyone already know where they state how omissions are done?

Rob Dawg said...

I can't find it either but this is a trust me moment. New home sales prices are not included in their data pairs.

NoVa Sideliner said...

Dawg, I think the San Andreas actually runs just north of that development.

See that thing that looks like a sand trap on the top right? The main fault is just beyond that, running from WNW to ESE. It's about a quarter mile from the NE edge of the development.

If you back out on GoogleMaps a bit from that view, you can see it pretty easily.

Rob Dawg said...

NoVa, you are correct. Sort of. The surface rupture of the Pacific Plate riding over the North american Plate is just north and paralleling the aqueduct. Just remember in this area the slip zone elides south and down from the surface rupture.

I truth we are discussing whether this abortion is ground zero or a few hundred yards safer.

NoVa Sideliner said...

Here's an aerial shot showing the fault near Palmdale:
Palmdale/San Andreas 1935Could be worse for that development in the event of the Big One. They could be downstream from that reservoir.

NoVa Sideliner said...

Ah yes, that's right, sloping slip zones. Where'd my goglogy training go? Duh. And in fact, a modestly deep quake might even be south of them.

Rob Dawg said...

Yup. I usually do my homework.

The serious bit is that when the SAF goes in this segment the aqueduct is destroyed. Not broken, destroyed. I'm hoping Santa Barbara will share their desal water provided they can power it. Oh, wait we decided an offshore LNG terminal would kill small pets in their sleep. Scratch that.

Steve said...

Sure come the big one this will be toast, but at least it's not in the basin.

There's only one good road up here to the lovely AV, and it will be manned and armed to keep all the CRIPS, BLOODS, and MS13 types trapped down in the basin killing each other.

Of course TO is just a trip up the coast.

Effective Demand said...

Here is the same image from a foreclosure POV:

http://img242.imageshack.us/img242/2959/robdawgpalmdale.jpg

P = NOD filed
A = NTS filed
B = Back to the Bank / REO / Foreclosure

119 properties currently in the foreclosure process at some point for just 1 development.

Rob Dawg said...

Jeez! Who spilled the skittles all over your map? Thanks and if you don't mind I'll use that pic for a top level post.