Friday, April 03, 2009

Taking Bets



I've added some dates to the Chart of the Day.
1973 recession = April 2009.
1920 recession = July 2009.
1910 recession = Feb 2010.
1929 recession = 2012.

Any bets? Right now I'm thinking Q2 2011.

21 comments:

Northern Renter said...

Nah.

It'll be the FIRST quarter of 2011.

NR

Rob Dawg said...

Interesting, I debated and actually originally typed Q1 myself but changed it at the last minute.

tj and the bear said...

Dawg, you're going all optimist!

Or... are you saying we surface for one or two quarters before slipping below the water again?

Property Flopper said...

Saw this article, thought of this group...

http://www.cnn.com/2009/LIVING/04/02/foreclosure.dream.homes/index.html

The headline "$500k homes selling for $200k!" was just too funny. No, it's $200k homes selling for $200k. The $500k mark was just someone's fantasy.

Captain Nemo said...

"Luxury" apartments?

Property Flopper said...

Off topic, but did I step into an alternate dimension at some point and not notice? I don't have a goatee, so I don't think I'm the evil version of myself, but:

Stupid people who buy houses they KNOW they can't afford are now "victims of the economy".

Bankers and execs that run companies into the ground get million dollar "performance" bonuses.

A pardon has been proposed for Jack Johnson - a black boxer from why back convicted of improper relations with a white women... that isn't odd (it's long overdue), but it's being proposed by the old, white conservative who lost the election, not the young, black Pres. who's all about change.

And now Iowa allows gay marriage while California does not. When did Iowa become more liberal than CA?

tj and the bear said...

Property Flopper,

How about people who shouldn't even have a job -- and probably have little chance of getting a similar job elsewhere -- getting "retention bonuses"? AIG/FRE/FNM, of course.

Now that the automakers are turning into more government subsidiaries, I'm sure we'll see the same there.

tj and the bear said...

Rob,

I do really struggle with the idea of this "recession" ending. Sure, we'll probably pop up with a positive GDP here and there, but I just don't see the country sustaining back-to-back quarters of real (vs. statistical anomaly), significant expansion for at least a decade.

What are your terms for an "end"?

Centipede said...

2011 sounds like a good number.
My boss told me I was taking up for too much bandwidth today.
Can hundreds of RSS feeds really do that?

Centipede said...

He also believes my replicant activity in an entirely separate domain was the cause of some clusterfuck I had nothing to do with...and he does not understand in the least bit, so I had to undo everything I accomplished today for the sake of his paranoid mind. No wonder this country is fucked.

H Simpson said...

I look at the short term crashes and remember what set them off.

.com crash of 01
houseing bubble of 08

Need to find out what Casey is doing next and short the bejesus out of it.

I am going to be RICH!!!!

Kasey Skala said...

I find it funny that you turn on the tv and everyone thinks the bottom is here. Is it that bad that 1 week of the market being up gets everyone false hope?

I'm still sticking by my original thought of Q1-Q2 2010 before we start to see any turnaround. There'll be no such thing as "full recovery," or at least I hope there isn't.

Centipede said...

The Christian Right finally killed Church of the Sian Bush!

Akira said...

I'm about to whip somebody's ass

Son of Brock Landers said...

Since GDP growth is possible since we're contracting so much, so fast, I'll predict one quarter of minimal GDP growth in the first half of 2010 with the govt rigging the stats, but then contraction continues as inflation in necessities rears its ugly head again crushing a down and out consumer even more lasting into 2012.

Steve said...

Better question, when does the inflation run wild kick in?

All this money pouring into the economy is going to come back "big time", and the headache from the sugar rush is going to hurt.

2014 is my prediction.

tj and the bear said...

Steve,

IMHO we'll see inflation in the things we absolutely need -- food, energy -- and continued deflation in the things we want -- wages, housing, cars, etc.

Not a pretty picture.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Fun!

I'm predicting 2010. Well, sort of.

HAL 9000
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HAL_9000

HAL in 2010: Odyssey Two

Dr. Chandra discovers that HAL's crisis was caused by a programming contradiction: he was constructed for "the accurate processing of information without distortion or concealment", yet his orders, directly from White House officials, required him to...

Oh yeah, that's lookin' really good. Put me down for $100 on 2010 to show. I know. It's a lame conservative bet. I wouldn't win much even if I was right. However, I'm not done yet.

I'd also like to bet $10 on the 2010/2012 exacta.

US: The Double-Dip Recession Scenario
http://www.riskwatchdog.com/2008/12/04/us-the-double-dip-scenario/

Well, while most people are focused on the current recession, I’m already becoming somewhat concerned about the next one....

The scenario here would be most similar to the 1980-82 double-dip recession...

I've got a really good feeling about this by the way. In fact, what the heck. It's only pretend money. Put me down for another $5 on the 2010/2012/2014 trifecta.

Akira said...

@Stagflationary Mark,
Interesting theory, but never let anyone know you're a Cancer.
Honestly, I've never been able to sit through HAL without falling asleep.
As far as $ goes, it’s just a roll of the dice.
Random.
Chaos.
Etc.
Hey, does anyone want to adopt my thoroughly insane cat? If so I’ll give you a free ticket to this year’s Bohemian Grove extravaganza.
Woohoo!

Stagflationary Mark said...

Akira,

Adopt one thoroughly insane cat? Absolutely not. I wasn't born yesterday.

Allow me to invest in a Structured Feline Investment Vehicle composed of trillions of insane kitties though? Yeah, okay. Sure. How could I possibly lose with all of that risk so well distributed? Further, I'd have no problem having them come over to my house. What are the odds that more than 0.01% of them could even make it to my couch, much less use it as a scatching post.

Prudent risk management, that's what I'm talking about. ;)

bobn said...

At 8:06 PM, Blogger Centipede said...

He also believes my replicant activity in an entirely separate domain was the cause of some clusterfuck I had nothing to do with...


Ummm, Windows domains, as in Microsoft? I would be very reluctant to say that anything didn't cause anything else in that environment. All kinds of weird stuff goes on in AD.