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Bill and Ken are switching over. This is but a pale excuse, a shadow of the true Amber as it were but addicts don't complain.

2010 Census

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Huevos Grande

Give 'em credit. It takes a big pair to bring this one to market:
271 Myrtle Ave Oxnard, CA 93036

$/Sq. Ft.: $223
Lot Size: 0.69 Acres
Property Type: Detached, Modular/Manufactured
View: Other/See Remarks
Year Built: 2000
Community: El Rio / Nyeland Acres
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What's the big deal? Location, location, location. Here's the aerial:


Best described as "construction adjacent. Bet they don't mention the freeway is being widened. Not that it matters. Look at the sales history:

Mar 23, 2010 Changed $579,000
Feb 16, 2010 Listed $649,000
Dec 02, 2009 Sold $450,000
Jul 13, 1999 Sold $216,000

Nice flip. Fail.

HELOC I Love You Won't You Sell Me Your Gain?

Today's Ventura County Star has more than seven pages of NOTS (Notice of Trustee's Sale). The prices at roughly $5 million dollars per page. $35m worth of foreclosures in the paper toady alone. Let's look at some:

1291 Newman St Simi Valley CA 93065
4 beds, 2.0 baths, 1,740 sq ft
06/16/2005: $495,000
NOTS: $719,416.33

1676 Glider Ct Thousand Oaks CA 91320
4 beds, 3.5 baths, 2,742 sq ft
04/10/2002: $472,000
NOTS: $806,195.30

5083 Dodson St Somis CA 93066
4 beds, 2.0 baths, 2,362 sq ft
12/23/2002: $393,000
NOTS: $766,737.25

All these last sold at prices much lower than the foreclosure price. You have to wonder how many have seconds, HELOCs, thirds, etc. that aren't even counted having already been written off to zero.

Desert Living Large

10131 JENNY St, Hesperia, CA 92344

I said living large. I mean that two ways.
BEDS: 6
BATHS: 4
SQ. FT.: 4,246
$/SQ. FT.: $90
LOT SIZE: 1.86 Acres

Too bad the people who bought it for $282k in January want $382k now.
Date Event Price Appreciation Source
Mar 18, 2010 Listed $382,500 -- MRMLS #C10029262
Jan 07, 2010 Sold (Public Records) $284,025 -15.5%/yr Public Records
Feb 04, 2005 Sold (Public Records) $650,000 22.6%/yr Public Records

Good luck with that flippers.

Bad Teacher

LATimes: CalSTRS' $130-billion investment portfolio lost more than a quarter of its value in the recent recession. The projected shortfall at the state's second-largest public pension fund ballooned to $43 billion by last June.

"There's no doubt about it -- we need to come up with a new financial plan," Ehnes said.

The 97-year-old pension plan must ask the state Legislature, the governor and taxpayers for billions of dollars. Getting that money -- even with an expected massive lobbying campaign and a bruising political battle -- is no sure thing.
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Must be nice to gamble with OPM.

Half Off!

I love my neighborhood and it looks like we'll have some new neighbors at 3153 CalleDe Marejada:

Sprawling Single Story Custom Estate Home, 5 bedrooms, spacious office, 6.5 baths, 3 fireplaces, vaulted ceilings, granite, new stainless steel appliances, crown molding, surround sound speakers, etc. Too many features to list! Awesome backyard featuring covered patios, pool & spa, guest house w/ 2 bedrooms, bath & kitchen, flagstone pathways, pool bath, gazebo and outdoor kitchen island ready to add appliances. 4 car garage with paver motorcourt & half-circle drive.

Date Event Price Appreciation
Mar 10, 2010 Listed $1,599,800 -- VCRDS #10003829
Oct 28, 2009 Sold (Public Records) $1,360,000 -17.3%/yr
Jun 02, 2006 Sold (Public Records) $2,600,000 103.8%/yr
Aug 08, 2003 Sold (Public Records) $350,000 1.2%/yr
Oct 13, 1989 Sold (Public Records) $295,000
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I did the math. The previous owners lost $1000 per day.

CRE Hopium

Craigslist find:

RESTAURANT FOR SALE
Price: $150,000
This furnished restaurant is ready to go right now with an Outdoor Grill and food service area. Kitchen needs some remodeling work to become fully functional.There are 5,200 Sq. Ft inside and a large outside patio with a fire pit. It overlooks the habor and the boat docks, attacking herds of people to the location. Inside there is a fireplace area to relax in and a beautiful rock waterfall area to sit and enjoy a cocktail and meal.

This restaurant recently closed due to poor management....
... the rent is only $2.24 a Sq. Ft (including the patio Sq. Ft)
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Eh. What could go wrong?

The Definition of Insanity

... is doing the same thing over and over expecting a different result.

Does anyone still care except for waiting for the inevitable?

Go Amazon!

Amazon Dumps Colorado Affliates
[From Inc.]

Mr. Cause meet Mr. Effect. Last week, the governor of Colorado signed a new law levying sales taxes on online retailers.

Amazon has officially balked.

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The States are desperate for revenue no matter the cost. That never ends well.

California Default Watch II

March 8 (Bloomberg) -- California Treasurer Bill Lockyer’s bid to sell $2 billion of bonds this week, his first issue since November, may benefit from a falling risk premium after lawmakers at his urging passed a bill to prevent the most- populous U.S. state from running out of cash.
A special session of the Legislature approved measures to chip away at a $20 billion budget deficit and give state officials powers to put off as much as $5 billion in spending. The delays are intended to sidestep cash shortfalls like those last year that forced the state to issue IOUs to pay bills and triggered cuts to its credit rating.
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And an excellent blogger I haven't mentioned in a long time, Of Two Minds:

Why California Is Doomed (March 9, 2010)

California is doomed for two simple but profound reasons: the cost structure is too high for most businesses to survive, and a boom-dependent economy.

The dysfunctions crippling California would easily fill a volume: a dysfunctional Legislature that has been gerrymandered to protect virtually every seat; a dysfunctional proposition system which enables special interests to craft Protected Fiefdoms via the ballot box; recalcitrant public unions who don't see anything wrong with public servants getting 90% of top-pay in pensions while still earning big bucks as "contract employees," an enormous population of undocumented workers who pay only sales taxes, and whose employers pay no payroll taxes, either-- and that just scratches the surface.
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Thieving Rat B@st@rds

Stealing. There's no other word for it. No matter how they torture the language in the end the legislature has taken money out of the Stat highway Trust Fund and used it to cover general fund debt payments. It gets a little complex and involves weird concepts like different kinds of money but follow me here.

From Businessweek:
The swap allows some accounting maneuvers that would funnel more money into the state's general fund, where the deficit exists.

The tax exchange is estimated to generate $1.1 billion for the general fund while continuing to provide close to the current level of funding for public transit and repairs to highways and streets.

Californians would see no difference in prices at the pump.

Bullshit. The Trust Fund carries a close to $9 billion balance. The State won't spend it because as long as it sits there it helps balance the bookson paper. What about on the streets? KTLA:

Huge Pothole Flattens Tires On 101 Freeway
KTLA News7:17 AM PST, March 1, 2010

The 101 south through downtown was closed by a massive pothole. (February 28, 2010)

LOS ANGELES - Late last year, a national transportation research group stated that Los Angeles had the worst roads in the nation.

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They robbed the Trust fund and we pay twice.

Hope Springs Eternal

Oxnard
Feb 06, 2010 Listed $559,900 -- VCRDS #10002095
Dec 10, 2009 Sold (Public Records) $490,000 14.5%/yr
May 29, 2003 Sold (Public Records) $202,500 -31.4%/yr
Oct 08, 2001 Sold (Public Records) $375,000 5.7%/yr
Nov 16, 1993 Sold (Public Records) $242,000 --

I imagine the 2003 price was a divorce split.

2004-2009 Total assessed value: = $541,708 = $552,542 = $563,592 = $574,863 = $586,359 = $495,000

We'll watch this flip closely. Here are the neighboring zillow comps:

GRM 13.8

GRM is gross rent multiplier. That means annual rent as a ratio to purchase price.

$2,200,000. That's $220,000 per apartment. Now, I prefer the other GRM, monthly, not annually. Multiply by 12 is all. That's 165. In other words in this market 40% overpriced for a recovery. 60% overpriced for rent deflation expectations. They claim $ $13,000/mo in rent receipts. Taxes would eat the first $2000 every month. Ouch. Debt service also says 40% overpriced on a cash flow basis.

Hope springs eternal.

Craigslist Laugh of the Day

2008 TOYOTA PRIUS, NO MONEY DOWN, TAKE OVER MY PAYMENTS - $1 (Thousand Oaks)
Date: 2010-02-24, 10:57AM PST

I have a 2008 Toyota Prius that is the top of the line version, loaded with leather seats, nav, premium Bose 6 disc CD stereo/speaker system.
It is white, and is in pristine condition.
Has 21,400 miles currently.
My wife and I are having our 2nd baby soon, and the Prius is just too small for us now, and we don't drive enough to get the savings on the gas.
So we want to have someone take over the loan and payments on the car.
This is a great deal for someone who doesn't want to put a bunch of money down, and get a great car with low mileage.
The car has always been serviced at Toyota of Thousand Oaks, where it was purchased, and there have been no problems.
It was just serviced and they did check the gas pedal just in case last week.
Clean title and no accidents, of course.
Payments are $607.11 per month including tax, and the loan has 53 months left.
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$607.11 x 53 = $32,176.83

Brand new '10 Prius? 3-12 thousand dollars cheaper. Pathetic.

The End of a Perfect Day II

Thomas kinkade painting or generator for trade..... (fillmore)

Date: 2010-02-24, 10:01AM PST
Reply to: sale-xgbfk-1615859440@craigslist.org [Errors when replying to ads?]

Ive got a thomas kinkade painting END OF A PERFECT DAY II comes with certificate of authenticity and a Briggs and Stratton xl4000 generator used twice like new for trade need my front and back yards done.... (sod, lil plants ect) your gonna need to haull out levvel the dirt and plant the sod. Let me know what you got in mind lets talk..............

Location: fillmore
it's NOT ok to contact this poster with services or other commercial interests
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Any takers? The great unwinding continues. Imagine this one. A frou-frou painting for hard labor or a solid pice of hardware for hard labor. "Stuff" is so mis-allocated. It ain't over.

California Debt Watch Resumed

WSJ:

NEW YORK—California, owner of the worst credit ranking among U.S. states, plans to tap bond markets for $4 billion in March to finance infrastructure improvements, a spokesman for State Treasurer Bill Lockyer said.

The sales-a pair spaced several weeks apart—would come at a time that the Golden State's budget is bleeding about $20 billion in red ink through fiscal 2011 and when some portfolio managers have cautioned that investments in California debt are turning riskier.

The state, however, is counting on a new cash-management tool that it expects to gain legislative approval Monday to put a floor under its short-term needs and to improve both market and investor confidence in the finances of the world's eighth-largest economy.

"We need a credible solution to our cash-flow situation," and this legislation will help Controller John Chiang and the Department of Finance to defer general-fund payments for specific programs and for specific time periods, if needed, in order to maintain an adequate cash cushion, Tom Dresslar, a spokesman for Mr. Lockyer, said in a telephone interview Sunday.

The program would remain in place for the balance of this fiscal year, ending June 30, and through the next fiscal year, giving the financial officials more flexibility by not having to seek legislative approval each time.
...
"California is done with financing its deficits with the issuance of bonds," Mr. Dresslar stated Sunday.

Thus endeth the nobel experiment in democracy. not with revolution but with a "cash-management tool."

You Bet Your Sweet BP

FoxNews:

ConocoPhillips, BP America and Caterpillar pulled out of a leading alliance of businesses and environmental groups pushing for climate change legislation on Tuesday, citing complaints that the bills under consideration are unfair to American industry.

The sudden pullout of three corporate giants from a leading alliance of businesses and environmental groups could be the death knell for climate change legislation languishing on Capitol Hill.
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Funny, the MSM and AGW crowd made a much bigger thing about this when they joined.

Out Behind the Barn

94 acres near St. Thomas Aquinas College. 4425 Ojai Rd, Santa Paula.

This beautifully rugged property is located about 2 miles north of downtown Santa Paula on Hwy. 150 and is less than a mile south of Steckle Park. Ojai would only be about another 5 miles. There is enough level to rolling area for a small farming operation. Horses and other livestock would be a natural here. Enjoy the Little Red Barn. Use it for storage or a place for you and your family and friends to meet. There are roads to take you through the property and to the tops of the hills to enjoy nature and the panoramic views, including the ocean, Topa Topa and city lights. There is abundant wildlife, which includes: deer, quail, dove, rabbits, etc. Part of the property is on the east side of Highway 150 and actually fronts on Santa Paula Creek. Only minutes to town and about one and a quarter hours to L.A. What a great place for a weekend getaway!!!

Am I forgetting anything? Oh yes. The barn:

Hittin' the ATM

Nice place. Been owned so long that zillow has no sales history. The tax data support this. They are paying a whopping $1492 per year in property taxes. That puts the purchase most likely in the mid 1980s for less than $100,000. Sweet deal eh? Slapping down a $600 mortgage and $80-$120 taxes for 25 years and looking at a balance of ~$25,000. And in 5 years even that car payment sized mortgage goes away. Right? Wrong. Opening bid at auction tomorrow (Feb 19th, 2010): $675,000.
Realtytrac listing.
Zillow for what it's worth(less).

What in the world were these people thinking?

Good Fog - Bad Fog

Apparently the California Coastal Redwoods are in danger from a lack of fog caused by... you guessed it; global warming.

At the same time earlier today a jet owned by a principal of Tesla Motors crashed killing three taking off from Palo Alto in heavy... you guessed it; fog.


Coastal Fog: WUWT and UCSB

Tesla Exec crash: Reuters and Auto Spies