Housing Bubble, credit bubble, public planning, land use, zoning and transportation in the exurban environment. Specific criticism of smart growth, neotradtional, forms based, new urbanism and other top down planner schemes to increase urban extent and density. Ventura County, California specific examples.
I think it is obvious that 36 months is the correct number. That's important as when we see '06-'07 models coming off lease it means people gave up the vehicle. $499/mo, 36mo, $2k at signing equals $20,000 exactly. Coincidence?
I plan to turn my car in at the end of its lease, which is what I planned from the beginning. It's a manufacturer-subsidized lease, and there is no way that the car will be worth the buyout price when the lease ends in December.
I notice that the Ford & Chevy 72 hour sales have now become the 10 day sales. They are taking about 6k off on their trucks. Do you think they could go even lower this year?
Manufacturers generally write leases for up to 15,000 miles a year. The advertised leases are usually for 10,000 miles a year (German makes), or 12,000 miles a year (nearly everyone else). IMO, it is not worth it unless the manufacturer is providing a lease with a high residual value and a low money factor.
It isn't that the leases are being turned in, it is the resale value. Two years ago $40k BMWs were holding 90% of their value at lease end. Now 60%?
TCO for one of these like the '05 pictured is likely to be low because of the purchase price. Now our '06 Civic has retained 90% of its value because of the rising price of new Civics and the mileage craze. Is it a craze? I think yes. I don't see people doing the math, I just see them looking at the EPA number on the window.
The new 3.0si has a more powerful engine and nicer interior than the used 3.0i... Remember the prices in the ads are just "asking" prices.
Anyway, I saw a 5-year-old Sequoia on eBay with a BIN price around $11-13k, IIRC. I also see a lot of sellers who think that having low odometer mileage makes their car worth double (or more) what one with normal mileage is worth...
Licking my chops awaiting a turned in LTZ Tahoe with all the bells and whistles. As you can see the price of a 3 year old full size suv is the same as some folks want for a used Camry with the $$$$$ batteries that will be coming up for replacement on your dime.
I read the suburbans and hoes are holding values better (realitively)only because they are some of the only suvs that can really tow horse trailers, real boats, or car haulers. Not these wanta-be 4wd minivans like pictured above.
Screw the price of gas. If we see $5 fuel, I am sure I can get one heck of a deal on one. $25 grand pays for a lot of fuel difference.
I love all these wankers on the web blabbering about their Prisus and Corollas. Screw up and catch my front end in an accident and I will lay money which one of us goes to the morgue in a meatwagon and which drives home. Sort of like helmets. What is your head/life worth?
Some folks never should have had big suvs (especially the soccer moms with the cell phone glued in their ear). I am glad they are getting rid of them because they cannot justify them. Something they should have done in the first place instead of pumping their egos. There are those of us who use them for hauling big loads and need lots of legroom.
This is just a killer sale for those of us who have been saving up!
Anyone know how much more Casey's Jetta is worth with the high price of fuel?
The more important issue for the Suburban and "hoe" crowd isn't that they're spending more in gas, it's money that instead of going into our economy is going into the hands of our enemies. Countries like Venezuela, Nigeria, and Iran. So, rather than helping out your own people, you're putting money right into the pockets of people that hate you and would like to kill you.
You're also pushing up demand and driving up prices for people that can't afford it, and driving up the cost of food production, which leaves people hungry.
If that's a good tradeoff so that you can drive something that makes you feel "big", maybe it's worth it?
Come on Jellyfish that is straight out of the liberal handbook.
If the price of oil is high that will be good for the environment because so many people will starve. I wonder how these people fed themselves before oil? Oh wait, there was a lot less of them!
As for giving money to our enemies, the truth is that environmentalists are just as much to blame since we cannot be energy independent by simply using our own resources.
When the U.S. cuts its usage of oil I am sure that it will still get pumped and used somewhere in the world.
But if it is someone in China filling their tank with gas we can all have a clear conscience.
The truth is that the world is living on borrowed time structured as it is. There is no option where everyone gets what they want, or anything close to a happy ending.
It’s really just a matter of “do the right thing”. No doubt the extra $50 a tank could be better spent around town vs. sending it overseas. The extra money you’re wasting might not be a lot to you, but it adds up to small business and local industry.
Even better, if you’re interested in national security and energy independence, spend the extra money on alternative energy. Buy some solar, buy a hybrid, or buy some compact fluorescents and rechargeable batteries for your flashlights. The more alternatives we consume, the cheaper those alternatives become for everyone.
I’m not placing blame on anyone for where we are. The fact is our economy is 100% energy driven. Our job should be to make sure that the finite amount of energy is put to best use (manufacturing, growing food, running computers etc).
Wasting energy on big cars just isn’t fun anymore. The SUV is a dinosaur. See Ford’s results today? SUV sales down 54% YOY? That’s a pretty clear sign of where things are going.
It’s not just the price of gas. I wish it was that simple. Honestly, the price of gas isn’t a problem for me either. I doubt it’s a problem for a good portion of the county. We’re all pretty well off and can usually find the extra money when we need it. I haven’t heard of many people that I know say that they’ve stopped driving because of gas prices.
The real problem is that extra money we’re all spending on oil all comes discretionary income. If I wasn’t spending it on oil, I’d be spending it at restaurants, shopping at the mall more, saving more, or investing in stocks. So, the rest of the economy suffers. Jobs are lost, homes are lost, and our investments suffer. The second problem is that the countries we want to “go away” are getting rich off of us.
The only benefit I see is that with the increased price of oil, alternatives are getting more attention. This can only help in the long term.
Rob, this might not be a CA topic, but Heating Oil is going to be a big issue in the Northeast. Figure Heating Oil was ~2.70/gallon last year at this time and is currently at $4.60/gallon. The average home here probably uses 1,000 gallons a year to keep warm. It’s going to be a COLD winter.
I am halfway through a monster post on home heating oil and the likely events unfolding. THe sticker shock has left the usual summer buyers stunned which will ripple through the supply chain.
I expect the number one response to the high cost of energy in America will be a huge ground swell of support for more energy exploration domestically.
Hopefully in the mean time an American comes up with a break through we have not even imagined.
18 comments:
What, no V-Dubs?? ;-)
How long is the typical vehicle lease?
I think it is obvious that 36 months is the correct number. That's important as when we see '06-'07 models coming off lease it means people gave up the vehicle. $499/mo, 36mo, $2k at signing equals $20,000 exactly. Coincidence?
Lease turn-ins are nothing new.
I plan to turn my car in at the end of its lease, which is what I planned from the beginning. It's a manufacturer-subsidized lease, and there is no way that the car will be worth the buyout price when the lease ends in December.
At how many miles per year is it not worth leasing?
I notice that the Ford & Chevy 72 hour sales have now become the 10 day sales. They are taking about 6k off on their trucks. Do you think they could go even lower this year?
One thing the picture doesn't show is that BMW is offering 2.9% financing and they will waive the first 2 payments for all 05 3 and 5 series.
w,
Manufacturers generally write leases for up to 15,000 miles a year. The advertised leases are usually for 10,000 miles a year (German makes), or 12,000 miles a year (nearly everyone else). IMO, it is not worth it unless the manufacturer is providing a lease with a high residual value and a low money factor.
It isn't that the leases are being turned in, it is the resale value. Two years ago $40k BMWs were holding 90% of their value at lease end. Now 60%?
TCO for one of these like the '05 pictured is likely to be low because of the purchase price. Now our '06 Civic has retained 90% of its value because of the rising price of new Civics and the mileage craze. Is it a craze? I think yes. I don't see people doing the math, I just see them looking at the EPA number on the window.
The new 3.0si has a more powerful engine and nicer interior than the used 3.0i... Remember the prices in the ads are just "asking" prices.
Anyway, I saw a 5-year-old Sequoia on eBay with a BIN price around $11-13k, IIRC. I also see a lot of sellers who think that having low odometer mileage makes their car worth double (or more) what one with normal mileage is worth...
Licking my chops awaiting a turned in LTZ Tahoe with all the bells and whistles. As you can see the price of a 3 year old full size suv is the same as some folks want for a used Camry with the $$$$$ batteries that will be coming up for replacement on your dime.
I read the suburbans and hoes are holding values better (realitively)only because they are some of the only suvs that can really tow horse trailers, real boats, or car haulers. Not these wanta-be 4wd minivans like pictured above.
Screw the price of gas. If we see $5 fuel, I am sure I can get one heck of a deal on one. $25 grand pays for a lot of fuel difference.
I love all these wankers on the web blabbering about their Prisus and Corollas. Screw up and catch my front end in an accident and I will lay money which one of us goes to the morgue in a meatwagon and which drives home. Sort of like helmets. What is your head/life worth?
Some folks never should have had big suvs (especially the soccer moms with the cell phone glued in their ear). I am glad they are getting rid of them because they cannot justify them. Something they should have done in the first place instead of pumping their egos. There are those of us who use them for hauling big loads and need lots of legroom.
This is just a killer sale for those of us who have been saving up!
Anyone know how much more Casey's Jetta is worth with the high price of fuel?
The more important issue for the Suburban and "hoe" crowd isn't that they're spending more in gas, it's money that instead of going into our economy is going into the hands of our enemies. Countries like Venezuela, Nigeria, and Iran. So, rather than helping out your own people, you're putting money right into the pockets of people that hate you and would like to kill you.
You're also pushing up demand and driving up prices for people that can't afford it, and driving up the cost of food production, which leaves people hungry.
If that's a good tradeoff so that you can drive something that makes you feel "big", maybe it's worth it?
Come on Jellyfish that is straight out of the liberal handbook.
If the price of oil is high that will be good for the environment because so many people will starve. I wonder how these people fed themselves before oil? Oh wait, there was a lot less of them!
As for giving money to our enemies, the truth is that environmentalists are just as much to blame since we cannot be energy independent by simply using our own resources.
When the U.S. cuts its usage of oil I am sure that it will still get pumped and used somewhere in the world.
But if it is someone in China filling their tank with gas we can all have a clear conscience.
The truth is that the world is living on borrowed time structured as it is. There is no option where everyone gets what they want, or anything close to a happy ending.
It’s really just a matter of “do the right thing”. No doubt the extra $50 a tank could be better spent around town vs. sending it overseas. The extra money you’re wasting might not be a lot to you, but it adds up to small business and local industry.
Even better, if you’re interested in national security and energy independence, spend the extra money on alternative energy. Buy some solar, buy a hybrid, or buy some compact fluorescents and rechargeable batteries for your flashlights. The more alternatives we consume, the cheaper those alternatives become for everyone.
I’m not placing blame on anyone for where we are. The fact is our economy is 100% energy driven. Our job should be to make sure that the finite amount of energy is put to best use (manufacturing, growing food, running computers etc).
Wasting energy on big cars just isn’t fun anymore. The SUV is a dinosaur. See Ford’s results today? SUV sales down 54% YOY? That’s a pretty clear sign of where things are going.
Jettas aren't worth anything unless they're burning diesel.
Guy I work for just bought his new Suburban (marked down from the $50s to $40K out the door)
People buying those now don't much care about the price of gas.
As for the rest of us, we are stuck burning some type of liquid fuel until we get vehicles like the Volt which run directly on electricity.
That's still a good 3 years away.
Maybe buy a diesel in the interim.
It’s not just the price of gas. I wish it was that simple. Honestly, the price of gas isn’t a problem for me either. I doubt it’s a problem for a good portion of the county. We’re all pretty well off and can usually find the extra money when we need it. I haven’t heard of many people that I know say that they’ve stopped driving because of gas prices.
The real problem is that extra money we’re all spending on oil all comes discretionary income. If I wasn’t spending it on oil, I’d be spending it at restaurants, shopping at the mall more, saving more, or investing in stocks. So, the rest of the economy suffers. Jobs are lost, homes are lost, and our investments suffer. The second problem is that the countries we want to “go away” are getting rich off of us.
The only benefit I see is that with the increased price of oil, alternatives are getting more attention. This can only help in the long term.
Rob, this might not be a CA topic, but Heating Oil is going to be a big issue in the Northeast. Figure Heating Oil was ~2.70/gallon last year at this time and is currently at $4.60/gallon. The average home here probably uses 1,000 gallons a year to keep warm. It’s going to be a COLD winter.
http://www.investors.com/editorial/IBDArticles.asp?artsec=16&issue=20080701
I am halfway through a monster post on home heating oil and the likely events unfolding. THe sticker shock has left the usual summer buyers stunned which will ripple through the supply chain.
I expect the number one response to the high cost of energy in America will be a huge ground swell of support for more energy exploration domestically.
Hopefully in the mean time an American comes up with a break through we have not even imagined.
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