Housing Bubble, credit bubble, public planning, land use, zoning and transportation in the exurban environment. Specific criticism of smart growth, neotradtional, forms based, new urbanism and other top down planner schemes to increase urban extent and density. Ventura County, California specific examples.
I loaded your page, scrolled down, and quickly got the hell out of here. I may never look back for ANY old posts again knowing I may stumble across that picture first.
Happy Earth Day. Climate change caused by the burning of fossil fuels is now the central thesis in many of the earth sciences, just like evolution is to biology. The political action is a result of the evidence being uncovered by the basic research of science, even though some would twist it to be the other way around. I am astounded that there is virtually nothing being done to halt the use of fossil fuels. Global warming is an important fact of life for us now -- yet it is but one of many reason why we should get off of petroleum now. God bless.
I, too, would like the La Loma place, especially with those water shares. Those'll be as good as gold someday. I don't like avocados myself, but I've heard that guac is the #1 Superbowl dip, so it can't be a bad business.
I have 1,445 trees and harvested.....(drum roll).....less than 6,000 pounds this year. Unforunately, the previous owner losing the place to the bank did not irrigate for about 6 months during fruit set.
My neighbor who's ranch is about the same size harvested about 13,000 pounds. His good years are around 150,000 pounds.
More importantly, if you could arrange with the seller that you were paying $1,000,000 for the trees out of the total purchase price you could depreciate them over 10 years and reduce your gross family income by $100,000 a year. Definitely, talk to an accountant familiar with orchards first.
Your house on La Loma is grossly over priced. There is a property just down the road from it that had 42.5 acres, a cooler and an old modular home. About 40 acres was gently but evenly sloped and south facing (more valuable for early production and frost protection). It had been developed, fumigated and farmed for years. I think it would easily rent for $2,500 and acre ($100,000 a year), possibly more. It sold at the peak for just over $1.7 million.
Your house is nice but very dated. It bears no price relationship with the new estates in the area. Also, it is only on 11 acres. The biggest negative is that this home is right on the edge of the fire zone. Every few years the wild fires whip down out of the mountains behind it and burn right through the gullies and ditches of these homes. Last time it took out several rows of trees in some of the neighboring orchards. The picture on Redfin of your house is at least three years old but it shows trees in the orchard being highly variable in size and vigor compared to the adjacent properties. Personally, I think that area is dynamite for avocados. All in all I don't see it selling for much more than a million. Any wealthy buyer looking for an estate would have to knock the house down and build again. Also, at more than 10 acres it will be hard to get a loan. Banks will require 50% down and you will need to find someone who will make the loan and hold the paper (nothing government backed).
For reference I know a guy who bought 23 acres with a 3800ft2 house, a permitted mobile home, planted in avocados, two horse barns, an arena, and a view from the Channel Islands to Moorpark, all in a great school district for $1,000,000.
Wow, that guy did great with ihs 23 acres except it is 10 degrees warmer there in the summer.
I absolutely agree with everything except tearing down the house. I see this place worth more resale with a tear down than with a modest McMansion. You are correct that 11 acres is too small to get the benefits of scale that kick in 60-80 acres or "family" connections. I'd just contract out to Ed F. directly across the street for the trees.
14 comments:
Thanks Rob.
I loaded your page, scrolled down, and quickly got the hell out of here. I may never look back for ANY old posts again knowing I may stumble across that picture first.
Were those Lancaster houses really that ugly?
I wish I could afford those 800 avocado trees on La Loma. 6 shares of water too. What's the revenue per tree looking like?
Happy Earth Day. Climate change caused by the burning of fossil fuels is now the central thesis in many of the earth sciences, just like evolution is to biology. The political action is a result of the evidence being uncovered by the basic research of science, even though some would twist it to be the other way around. I am astounded that there is virtually nothing being done to halt the use of fossil fuels. Global warming is an important fact of life for us now -- yet it is but one of many reason why we should get off of petroleum now. God bless.
THANK YOU THANK YOU THANK YOU!!!
I, too, would like the La Loma place, especially with those water shares. Those'll be as good as gold someday. I don't like avocados myself, but I've heard that guac is the #1 Superbowl dip, so it can't be a bad business.
Theoretically, (800 mature Hass trees) x (68 lbs fruit) x ($0.80) = $43,520 gross
harvesting = $6,000
water = $9,000
fertilizer & pest control = $3,000
bragging to friends = priceless
net: $25,000 a year +/-100%
I have 1,445 trees and harvested.....(drum roll).....less than 6,000 pounds this year. Unforunately, the previous owner losing the place to the bank did not irrigate for about 6 months during fruit set.
My neighbor who's ranch is about the same size harvested about 13,000 pounds. His good years are around 150,000 pounds.
More importantly, if you could arrange with the seller that you were paying $1,000,000 for the trees out of the total purchase price you could depreciate them over 10 years and reduce your gross family income by $100,000 a year. Definitely, talk to an accountant familiar with orchards first.
I was wrong, 9 shares. Gosh, I'll install a solar farm and sell the shares. Sun farmer.
Rob,
Your house on La Loma is grossly over priced. There is a property just down the road from it that had 42.5 acres, a cooler and an old modular home. About 40 acres was gently but evenly sloped and south facing (more valuable for early production and frost protection). It had been developed, fumigated and farmed for years. I think it would easily rent for $2,500 and acre ($100,000 a year), possibly more. It sold at the peak for just over $1.7 million.
Your house is nice but very dated. It bears no price relationship with the new estates in the area. Also, it is only on 11 acres. The biggest negative is that this home is right on the edge of the fire zone. Every few years the wild fires whip down out of the mountains behind it and burn right through the gullies and ditches of these homes. Last time it took out several rows of trees in some of the neighboring orchards. The picture on Redfin of your house is at least three years old but it shows trees in the orchard being highly variable in size and vigor compared to the adjacent properties. Personally, I think that area is dynamite for avocados. All in all I don't see it selling for much more than a million. Any wealthy buyer looking for an estate would have to knock the house down and build again. Also, at more than 10 acres it will be hard to get a loan. Banks will require 50% down and you will need to find someone who will make the loan and hold the paper (nothing government backed).
For reference I know a guy who bought 23 acres with a 3800ft2 house, a permitted mobile home, planted in avocados, two horse barns, an arena, and a view from the Channel Islands to Moorpark, all in a great school district for $1,000,000.
Wow, that guy did great with ihs 23 acres except it is 10 degrees warmer there in the summer.
I absolutely agree with everything except tearing down the house. I see this place worth more resale with a tear down than with a modest McMansion. You are correct that 11 acres is too small to get the benefits of scale that kick in 60-80 acres or "family" connections. I'd just contract out to Ed F. directly across the street for the trees.
Just watching and waiting...
Dawg,
What have you done with "Casey Serin" aka "Benoit"?
The blogosphere is a grayer place...
Yeah, miss that Casey too. I am just an admirer not a conspirator.
Yes yes...need a Casey sighting update, or an inmate number.
I sent him a friendly (no, seriously) e-mail a few days ago and he didn't reply. Nigel thinks Casey will be back soon. I don't.
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