Wednesday, October 12, 2005

The Thousand Sided Bubble Die

A little web research reveals tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of predictions of a housing bubble. Every single one of them is wrong. There is no housing bubble. In economic and QoL terms I am reminded of a bad joke. Several actually. In the mean time every one of the dozens, perhaps even hundreds of predictions of continually rising housing prices is absolutely correct and near universally disdained.

What's going on here? A track record of being right for a decade gets one marginalized while an unbroken record of abject failure generates an aura of godhood. Obviously a million people are flipping a coin every month. First month 500,000. 250k, 125k, so that a hundred or so flips later a very few look smart and all the rest complain this can't continue.

1 comment:

Seb said...