Washington Monument Part 1

A "Washington Monument Play" is when government punishes the populace by denying a popular service in order to extort money for unpopular costs. We start this ongoing series with the great State of Arizona

Arizona decides to close most state parks
Facing a multibillion-dollar shortfall, the state will shut 13 parks by June, including the Tombstone Courthouse and Yuma Territorial Prison. Several had already been closed.

January 16, 2010|By Nicole Santa Cruz
Wrestling with a multibillion-dollar budget deficit, Arizona decided Friday to close nearly all of its state parks, including the famed Tombstone Courthouse and Yuma Territorial Prison.
The State Parks Board unanimously voted to close 13 parks by June 3. Eight others had already been closed, and the decision would leave nine open -- but only if the board can raise $3 million this year.
The action represents the largest closure of state parks in the nation, although several other states are considering similar moves.
"It's a dark day for the Arizona state parks system," said Renee Bahl, the system's executive director.
"We have 65,000 acres around the state and the majority of them are closing."
The Arizona parks receive about 2.3 million visitors per year who bring about $266 million into the state, Bahl said.

Got that math? $3m is "saved" to help close a multi-billion dollar deficit. That $3m apparently generates 80x in economic ripples. There's no way this is about saving money.

The Little Choo-Choo That Couldn't

California High Speed Rail died recently and no one noticed. The CAHSR authority finally made the first of a long series of confessions that the service will be less and price higher than was sold to the voters 18 months ago in a narrow bond approval vote.

The new plan calls for a one-way charge of $105, about 83 percent of the $125 the rail authority predicts airfares will run in 2035. That near-doubling of prospective fares from the 2008 $55 would reduce expected ridership by almost one-third.

Prices up, ridership down. Quelle surprise.

But don't be discouraged. There's a new blog out there where CAHSR is not only alive but so perfect only apostates can dare deny its beauty: CAHSRblog.com

If it weren't my money the whole debacle would be sad. As it is it is a travesty.

The updated cost estimate for the San Francisco‐to‐Anaheim initial high‐speed rail system is $42.6 billion [pdf file] in year‐of‐expenditure dollars.

State funding: $9 billion from Proposition 1A (used to leverage additional investment)
Federal funding: $17‐19 billion (ARRA, other federal loan programs, transportation appropriations)
Local funding: $4‐5 billion (in right‐of‐way, parking fees, transit‐oriented developments, contributions)
Private funding: $10‐12 billion (public‐private partnerships, vendor financing, availability payments, etc.)
Total: $45 billion

Not. Fed funding will never exceed the $9b State contribution and private funding to date has been zero. There's no reason for private interests to fund HSR. It has no commercial value. And the "local funding" is just a joke. Bakersfield is not going to invoke Eminient Domain to cover CAHSRs accounting ass.

Back East

A little family business. Nothing serious. Expect to be busy. I'll check in if I can. And no, I don't get to go to the Patriots game.

Update: I'm back. My recalcitrant little brother needed to see 5 feet of scars in order to start taking care of himself and availing himself of VA benefits. Back to your regularly scheduled snark.

La Loma Redux

It's back. La Loma is back on the market.


You'd never know this was once asking for a million.

2010 Movie Remakes

Underwaterworld
The Unpayables
War of the Wards
0-mega man
Debt-raiser
Debt-raiser
Blackdebt Down
Chinamen in Black
Dependence Day
Debt, followed by Children of Debt
3000 Miles to Poorland
Thirteen Days to Bankruptcy
For Love of the
Eviction Message in a Bottle
The Postman Doesn't Stop Here Anymore
Big Treasury Trouble in Little China
The Checkbook
Massive Asset-Slashed Haircut: M.A.S.H.
Pretty WaMu, the unlikely romance of a prostitute and a corporate raider.
Tin Cup and Pencils
Wyatt Earp Real Estate Investment Trust
A Perfect World for Goldman
The Bodyguard to Benny
True Romance
The Bodyguard to Benny
The Bootyguard starring Shelia Bair
True Romance
Romancing The Sachs
Massive Asset-Slashed Haircut: M.A.S.H.
I especially liked Hotlips WaMulihan in the scene where she does Major Burnstheinvestors.
Romancing the Blackstone
Stanford & Son
A Default Grows in Harlem.
The Stanfords
Skull and Bonus
Three Loans for Sister Sarah
Last House Left
The Legend of Beggar Vance
Bend It Like Bernanke
Ben & Timmay's Excellent Misadventure
Buffy The Squid Slayer
buffet fraud
Cheaper by The Dozen Trillion
Close Encounters of The Third Tranche
Citizen Pain - who can forget that classic tale?
Dirty Benny
Buffy The Squid Slayer
The Money Pit
Dirty, Rotten Scoundrels
Bonfires of the Vainities
Easy Writers
Nightstand Cowboy
Close Encounters of The Third Tranche
Final DebtstaNation
The International (no title change necessary!)
Taken
Gone With The Win
2010: The Year We Break Contract
When Benny met Timmy?
Home: A Loan
Routes
A Debtors' Line
The Dark Pool
The Debt Pool
Debt Men Don't Wear Plaid
for pav: Debt Poets Society
debtsturbia
Hock Hollywood
Eight Squid Heads in a Duffle Bag
Eternal Obligation of the Spotless FICO
Management on Fire, starring Denzel Washington DC
19 Men on a Debtman's Chest, yo ho ho
Deja Vu
He Knows You Need A Loan
Live Free or Die Pennyless
The Perfect Storm (no changes necessary)
Pirates of the Carribean (no changes necessary)
Flatliners (no changes necessary)
Apocalypse Now
A-liens
The Incredible Hulk - a tale of seethrough megatowers
Apocalypse on Credit - The Sequel
Wallets Wide Shut
Fantasia 2010
Ferris Beuller's Pay Off
Forrest Pump and Dump
Four Mortgages and a Jubilee
Funds and Fancy Free
Glodzilla
A-liens
Wiped Out Men Can't Jump
Snatch
My Big Fat Greek Riot
The Day the Earth Paid Bills
Throw in two others and you'd have The Magnificent Seven
Flight Club
Charlotte's Web (tale of a spider and a )
Schiller's List
St. Elmo's FIRE
The Puppets Take Manhattan
The F/C Files
Con-Heir
Throw in two others and you have The Malignant Seven
Office Space
CREmatorium
The Good, The Bad, & The Fugly?
Squirrel Interupted
Glods and Monsters
The Glods Must be Crazy
Good Bills Hunting
Groundhog Decade
All Go To Heaven
The Whetherman
Miss MBS March
The Great White Hype
Ladies and Gentlemen, the Retail Bones!
Logan's Loan Run
The Day the Loans Stood Still
M.B.S.
Saving Private Buying
E for Endebtedness
Dial M For More
Flash-Trading Gordon
Clash of the Banking Titans
The Hangover
The Day the Loans Stood Still
Deliverance
Bando Brothers
Land of the Lost Wages
Fannie
Nightmare on K Street
reserved hogs
Dead Bank Walking
The Loan King
Dead Beat
Plan of the Caved Bair
Masters of the Universe (no change needed)
Minority Deport
Sachs and the Citi
District 8
Crash
The Bad News Bears
Weekend at Bennies
Growing Pains
Weakened @ Bennie's
Romancing The Sachs
The Last Par Fighter
CDS: Fatal Affliction
Escape from Needless Markup
The Revenge of the Mannequins.
Expatriate Games
Fatal Redaction
up in the smoke
The Gain Mutiny
Throw MBS from the Train
A bridge to....a bridge
A Bridgeloan Too Far
To HELOC & Back
Bond, FIRE and Vanities
FIREstopper
Loan Terminator
(old TV show) The Loan Arranger
The Bridge Loan over the River Side
Bridges of Mason Country
Crash of the Titans
Axe-Men
Violence of the Lambs
The Chuck Prince Diaries
National Displeasure
No bridge to far
VATman
2010: A Treasury Oddity
Run Silent, Run Deep Losses
bANK fAILURE (homepage, profile) wrote on Sat, 1/2/2010 - 1:07 pm
The China Sin-Drone
Yu Gots Males
Arabian Blights
Meet Joe Sixpack
The Unshining
...starring Jack Nicholson as Alan Greenspend.
Atlantic Citi
Devil wears goodwill
The Loan Bug
Andduetome Strain
The Longest Yarn
Star Whores: The Empire Likes Crack
Star Whores: Reburn of the Junkie
Cashless In Seattle
Merry Pop Pins
Star Whores: The Phantom Ceiling
The Clowns of Music
and of course: Star Whores: The Revenge of the Squid
Czardoughs
Fast Times at 30 Broad
Did You Hear About The Benjamins?
Obama: A Nude Hope?
Ace Ventura, FED Detective
GS:Meet the Fuckers
Raiders of the Last Park
Star Whores:Return of the Tarp
Gunfight at the GS Corral
All Quiet On The Eastern Front
Cool hand Mack
Loan Misérables
The Rapes of Graft
Promotion's Eleven
ResistanceIsFeudal (profile) wrote on Sat, 1/2/2010 - 1:24 pm
Citi Slackers
Orifice Space
Whore A Few Dollars More
Ben Hurt
American Flipstory Essex
Blankfein's Monster
ET(gs): the evaded tax
Pigmen on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown - by Almostdover
Hex on the Citi
The Loan and I
Transformers:Revenge of the Realwhores
Planet of the Realtors
West Slide Story
The Lord of the FED:The Return of ...nope, returns are negative
Mr. Smith Goes to Bankruptcy Court
Mutiny of the Bounty
The Passion of the
One-Eyed Jack-a-Lopes
-staring Karl Maldin as Bad-Loanworth
Dial M for Mortgage
Finding Nemo!!!!
Alan and the FedMonks: The Squeakquel
'Invasion of the Money Snatchers'
The Lying King: the mozillo story
To Live and Die in the Beltway.
The Write Stuff
The Lord of the Blings: The Empty Towers
Pirates of Lower Manhattan; At Squid Island
A Dutiful Mind
The Lying Game
Twelve Flunkies
HouseFlipper's New Adventures
2010: The Year we broke the contract
Bye Bye Money
Rebel Without a Clause
You Can't Take It With You Unless You're Goldman
Chairman Dolittle
How to Marry a Trillionaire
The Three Faces of Greed
Bonus Season: The First Sense
The Bankshank Redemption
Sherlock Homes and the Case of the Missing Payments
Comrade Rally Monkey (homepage, profile) wrote on Sat, 1/2/2010 - 1:35 pm
The Handover: nth to default
It's Californicated
Village of the Damned Bankers
The Absent Minded Economics Professor
The Loan Vanishes
Voyage to the Bottom of the Recovery
Governator 3: Eviction Day
Kashkari:I am Legend
Panic in the Year 2010
Forget Perris
Hush...Hush, Sweet Sheila
Re-cast away
The Crawling Invisible Hand
The warren ultimatum
The Nutty Economics Professor
The Three Stooges Meet Geithner
How Green Was My Wallet
Cents and Cents-ability
-the making of Lowered Expectations
Caper-Corn Won
-Forex food fights staring transgendered asians, hilarity ensues
The Mishpocha Man
No Retirement for Old Men
No Country for Young Men
Fiat: Cultural leanings of a society bent on debt servitude for make glorius benefit of nation of Richistan
Star Tranche: First Contract
Who Framed Robert Reich?
Soylent Green Shoots
Oh man is dad ever gonna be pissed when he comes back from his hike and sees the mess we left.
To Be or Not To Be Homeless
The Last Wagon Out of IE
Father's Little Dividend Deferred
The Margin Call of the Wild
The Seethrough Menagerie
Elizabeth Warren: 2 smart, 2 curious
I haven't laughed this hard in quite a long time. Suicide hotline without the humor, my skinny white ass.
Altar'd Statisticians
Scammers
Krugman v. Krugman
Honey I shrunk the 401K!
*Battering Rams Not Included
Dr. Goldbug and the Bikini Machine
The Slime People
That title didn't need any work.
Anna and the King of Liar Loans
HELOC Down There
Doctor No Loan
The Net Worth
Feestack
Silence of the HAMPs
For Whom the Bank Tolls
Pay It Never
[alt: Pay It Forever]
[alt alt: Pain It Forwardization]
Around the Drain in Eighty Days
bANK fAILURE (homepage, profile) wrote on Sat, 1/2/2010 - 1:59 pm
SHAME !!
-a charming caste of up and coming are delightful in this musical romp through the interworkings of revolving doors. The smoke and mirrors budget is equalled only by the great wall Chindia's big shitpile.
The Last American Heloc
The Birth of a Nation of Debtors
A Farewell to ARMs
The Phantom of the Stock Market
20,000 Loans Under the Sea
The Good, the Bad, and the Regulators
Citizen Thain
Curse of the Voodoo Economics
Honey, I sold the kids
Evictus
All Squids go to heaven

It Can't Get Any Worse

Right?

Riverpark Bust

Wow, who could have predicted?

At the beginning of this decade, the developers of RiverPark in Oxnard looked at the vacant land, the asphalt plant and the run-down neighborhoods along the Santa Clara River and bet the area could almost be its own little new-suburban city. RiverPark would be a place where the people of 2010 would walk their kids to school, stroll through the neighborhood park, stop to buy organic produce from Whole Foods Market, and head home to chop it on their new granite countertops.
...

Today, RiverPark has about 800 occupied homes, rather than the 2,800 the plans call for at build-out. The shopping center sits vacant and fenced-off, construction equipment the only thing parked in its vast lots. The planned opening keeps getting pushed back, with “late 2010” the latest word from the developer, Shea Properties.

Be sure to read the comments for the different perspectives. Outsiders doing the Nelson Muntz "Hah hah!" The stuccos who lament their trusting the city. The denialists who can't even see reality. Past Riverpork posts here.

The thing that will kill the project will ultimately all come down to a failure of government. Yes, built in a flood plain. Yes, too dense. Yes, taxes too high regardless of home prices. All direct consequences of incompetent leadership at the municipal level. It's too late for Riverpark. Will the city wake up in time to save themselves from Wagon Wheel?

And the hits will keep coming. 800 occupied residences are not enough to service the HOA or Mello-Roos debts encumbered on their behalf. I wonder how many understand they are joint and several liable for the entire amount and not just the pro rata share currently being assessed? If you think the current 2.6% plus municipal burden is excessive, just wait. Riverpark will be a text book study for generations to come.

Jingle Bells

Clearly I've been stingy. Amends below:

Hide the Decline

Hat tip to Cobradriver for this unbelievable practice revealed:


This two-bedroom house at 1857 Prospect St. in Sarasota, bought for $453,900 in 2007, was just resold for $523,900. But the deal was a deed in lieu of foreclosure and no money changed hands. So why would a bank pay nearly $3,700 in stamp taxes?

The Herald Tribune has the story:

C&M had defaulted on a $408,500 mortgage, and Bank of Commerce was claiming its collateral. No money actually changed hands, according to Charles Murphy, the bank's chief executive.

Then why did the bank bother paying nearly $3,700 in documentary stamp taxes to make it look like the property had been sold for $523,900?
...
"The loan balance is the main consideration," Dart said. "That and any unpaid interest."

--------------------
Any questions?

Bad Tentacles

Jim the Reltor has been hacked. It appears to be a breach at the server at this time so there's not a lot that can be done. If anyone has a suggestion or just a comment of support feel free to leave a reply.

California Default Watch 2

Controller Releases November 2009 Cash Report

PR09:031
12/10/2009
Contact: Jacob Roper
916-445-2636

SACRAMENTO – State Controller John Chiang today released his monthly report covering California’s cash balance, receipts and disbursements in November. The month’s receipts were relatively close to estimates, down by 0.7% or $40.8 million.

“While revenues largely held up for two months, the next eight weeks will be far more telling of the State’s fiscal health,” said Chiang. “Record unemployment, at levels not seen for three decades, continues to aggravate California’s structural budget deficit.”

The receipts from tax deadlines in December and January are generally reliable indicators of expected Spring tax receipts.

Year-to-date revenues remain below the amended 2009-10 budget’s estimates by $835 million or -2.8%. But lower-than-anticipated State expenses combined with an additional $1 billion in external borrowing put the State’s cash position $610 million ahead of its projected level on November 30.

The State started the fiscal year with an $11.9 billion cash deficit in the General Fund, which grew to $24.4 billion by November 30. Those deficits are being covered with a combination of $15.6 billion of internal borrowing from special funds and $8.8 billion in short-term revenue anticipation notes.

November 2009's financial statement and the summary analysis can be found on the Controller’s Web site at www.sco.ca.gov.

====

There's no words for this that discerning readers cannot see for themselves. Internal borrowing is "not paying bills" and "short-term revenue anticipation notes" is more debt.

Weather Sucks Stay Away!

This is the horror left in the wake of the Monday storm. Stay away. There's two more storms behind it.

30 months Too Late

By my estimate $2.5T in MEW is unsupported by reasonable asset valuation. In total somewhere between $7T and $9T in phantom equity is exposed in any retracement to the mean. An orderly retreat will allow inflation to eat away much of this. A decline in the dollar may result in a disproportionate amount of pain to be taken by foreign investors. No matter how the pain is spread, there will be consumer pain. Likewise because of govt spending policies that resemble the proverbial cricket in summer we can expect massive deficits and even larger tax inceases. - Aug 6, 2006

And what does the MSM say?:

U.S. Homeowners Lost $5.9 Trillion Since 2006 Peak
By Dan Levy

Dec. 9 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. homeowners have lost about $5.9 trillion in value since the housing market’s peak in March 2006 as mounting foreclosures and the recession weighed on prices, according to Zillow.com.

Almost half a trillion dollars was wiped out this year through November as housing headed for a third straight annual decline. New foreclosures and higher mortgage rates in 2010 may hinder a rebound, the property data service said today in a statement.

Let's Play Does It Float?

Not that there's any open bodies of water anywhere near Victorville but there sure are more and more possible signs of a reasonable real estate investment market.
How would this one pencil out?

13752 Bluegrass:
Year Built: 2003 4 total bedroom(s) 2 total bath(s)
2 total full bath(s) Approximately 2277 sq. ft.
Fireplace in the Den 3 car garage
Central air conditioning Lot is 7205 sq. ft.

Decent house, not a mess, established neighborhood. Taxes don't appear too high.

Here's what the whacky z-people think they know.


$70k purchase, $5k costs. You'll need $20,000 and a $55,000 mortgage at ~6%. Payment $340. Taxes $160. I'd put at least $100 toward upkeep. It's gonna cost ya $600/mo to own this place plus $100/month lost opportunity cost of tying up $20k. These are tough times and so I'd have to factor 15% vaccancy. You'd need to rent for $825/month.

Yes, it floats.

Now for a rant. You all know the z data is hopelessly inaccurate. No news there but check out this bit:

That's Bing™ on top with a 2009 Copyright of 2008 NAVTEO material. These houses were built in 2003 no doubt these images are 2001 or earlier. Abusive application of supposed copyrights is getting entirely out of control.

Sears the REIT

Sears Holdings:
KMart 1,321 discount stores, averaging 92,000 square feet
KMart 47 Super Centers, averaging 166,000 square feet
Sears 929 broadline stores averaging 133,000 square feet
Sears Essentials/Grand 73 stores averaging 115,000 square feet
Specialty stores 1,233 averaging 8,700 square feet

Grand total: 272 million square feet of retail space. Monuments fall.


This on the recent news of so many REITs exploding on stock values. Suckers.

The Eyes of Laura St.

1446 Laura St. to be exact.

Check out the listing history:
Oct 17, 2009 Price Changed $235,000 -- MRMLS #I721298
Jul 14, 2009 Price Changed $265,000 -- MRMLS #I721298
Jul 21, 2008 Price Changed $299,000 -- MRMLS #I721298
Jul 21, 2007 Price Changed $309,000 -- MRMLS #I721298
Apr 28, 2007 Price Changed $329,900 -- MRMLS #I721298
Apr 02, 2007 Listed $344,000 -- MRMLS #I721298

As we close in on the 1000 day listing you would think they'd have learned a few lessons. They've made 30 mortgage payments and 5 tax payments in this time while losing equity faster and faster. Had they listed in April 2007 for $275,000 they'd have closed in a month. Instead they've spent $25k and watched another $50k evaporate.

Recovery

Everyone is all smiles over the Philly Fed State Coincident Indicators[pdf] and this map showing "green shoots."


Unfortunately a bit of green in Montana doesn't mean much when there are 36 million people in California and a whopping 950,000 in Big Sky Country. Here's a population adjusted cartogram:


A GDP adjusted chartogram would be even less encouraging.

California Default Watch Initiated

I've been quiet about California just because there hasn't been anything to add. The State went into a terminal dive last summer as covered by the Daily California Watch Series.

Now even the longtime insiders are seeing all other possibilities foreclosed:
Dan Walters in the Fresno Bee:

If some of the bleaker economic forecasts kicking around are accurate and/or the state doesn't act quickly to close the gap, Taylor's $20.7 billion problem could easily balloon to $25 billion or more. Even more ominously, as temporary tax increases expire and deferred spending promises come due, the state faces annual deficits in the $20 billion range for many years to come, Taylor says.
The battle lines are already forming on whether to deal with the crisis with more spending cuts, more new taxes and/or more gimmicks.
...
They've scraped the bottom of the gimmick barrel, voters are livid and new taxes are functionally off the table. This will be one of the bloodiest skirmishes the Capitol has ever seen — with the only option being that the most populous state in the nation default on its debts.

And Federal receivership won't fly either. The terms will prove intractable and the other States will howl.
And vat does our Leader, da Governator haf to say?:

As pieces of the July state budget solution begin to unravel, the Republican governor said judges – especially on the federal level – are preventing California from solving its problems.

He complained in particular about judicial actions that have struck down some state worker furloughs, required reductions in the prison population, imposed restrictions on water delivery in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and this week blocked cuts to in-home care services.

"They are going absolutely crazy," Schwarzenegger said of judges. "So we have to have a very serious conversation with the federal government, because they have to let us run the state." [from Fresno Bee last month.]

Want an example of "out of control" judges? This also from the Fresno Bee:

Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2009 - 2:43 pm
The California Redevelopment Association filed suit in Sacramento Superior Court today to block the state Finance Department from carrying out a $2.05 billion shift of tax increment funds from local redevelopment agencies over a two-year period.

California's adopted budget for 2009-10 seeks 1.7 billion in funds from the state's redevelopment agencies to help finance schools and calls for shifting another $350 million in the next fiscal year. The suit challenges the constitutionality of the budget language and cites state plans to use the money for non-redevelopment purposes.

The association prevailed in an earlier lawsuit challenging 2008-2009 budget language that would have shifted $350 million in tax increment funds to the state.

Yeah, stealing and getting caught is the judge's fault.

Amazing Divergence

This is Anadarco Petroleum [red] and the UNG natural gas ETF [blue] from Nov '07 to Nov '08:

This makes sense seeing as APC is very much a natgas company.

Now look at what's happened Nov '08 to Nov '09:

This is where you are left scratching your head. Why is a nat gas company up 60% when its product is getting 60% less when sold?

Unless you think natgas prices are going to return to and blow through last summer's highs I see a fundamental disconnect.

Traditions Best Preserved

The President of The United States of America bows to no one and the US Flag is dipped in deference to none. It isn't arrogance or hubris or bravado. It is homage to and acknowledgement of a revolutionary concept that has changed the face of the world several times over.
That this fundamental precept of our raison d'etre has been abandoned by the office holder of the moment is personally deeply painful. Sorry. I cannot go on without violating decorum.