Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Greg Swann Just Can't Stop

Screaming Opportunity! Greg Swann is at it again. This time he lays hands, declares the Phoenix market stable and it is now a good time to buy and hold.
Ubiquicert™:
I prepared a spreadsheet on a typical $100,000 property. This is a real property, really for sale right now for $100,000. I took the closing costs as a discount from the seller, but the property is in a subdivision with a community pool, so the HOA fee is fairly high. We’re getting a home in a booming, freeway-convenient suburb — built in 2002, stucco walls, all-tile roof, 1,614sf, 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, 2-car garage on a 7,032sf lot....
How does the home pencil out? Before taxes (and ignoring any accelerated depreciation), the home should throw off around $1,300 a year in positive cash flow. After taxes, you’ll be closer to $1,800 a year. That’s not the riches of Croesus, but the property should pay for all of its costs the entire time you own it. Even assuming our relatively anemic 4% appreciation rate, your initial $30,000 investment could grow to around $58,000 in eight years.

And if you assume the reality of -4% per month like earlier this year? Even 8 years of only -4% per year and you'll need to bring a check to the closing.

There's a reason he's selling these and not buying them for himself.

21 comments:

w said...

@Rob, closed about two weeks ago. Now I am become handyman!

Jean ValJean said...

Can this be the FIRST time I've gotten two FIRSTS in a row?

Jean ValJean said...

DANG IT!

w said...

Perhaps not.

Jean ValJean said...

So close, and yet so far... I'm miserable.

w said...

Please Monsieur, kindly pass me back my candlesticks.

Jean ValJean said...

You can have the candlesticks back.

I'm keeping the candleholders.

w said...

Typical ignorant peasant. They are silver "candlesticks". You may call whatever unsavory bottle you use for your candles a candleholder, but my silver is a candlestick!

Lost Cause said...

All I care about is that it is raining.

Rob Dawg said...

Man is it ever raining. A lot of mudslides tomorrow.

Northern Renter said...

You worry about a bit of rain?

We got snow, boy. OK,not much... and it is melting. But it's still the harbinger of many months of cold and darkness.

NR

w said...

Wouldn't it be nice to go some where cold, dark and snowy. Then stay there the whole winter with no internet, tv or newspapers. A break from events, be back next spring!

Maybe Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has been reading EN?

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/ambrose_evans-pritchard/blog/2008/11/25/bankruptcy_update_britain_plus_california

By the way, how do you put web links into clean little links like the cool kids always do? Did their Daddies send them to keyboarding school? Or do they swap techniques while they ride their edgy new high speed rail from LA to SF?

Casey Serin said...

By the way, how do you put web links into clean little links like the cool kids always do?

You use HTML tags. Click for info. :-D

What's the status on my incarceration, Robbo? Was plunging the U.S. into Great Depression 2.0 not enough? Welp, off to take another well-deserved nap.

Rob Dawg said...

Casey,
Goldspring at 1.4¢ is punishment enough for now.

w said...

For you Casey

Lost Cause said...

I think that the Colon Cleanse thing was punishment enough.

Sun said...

Cerberus claims it was misled by Daimler in deal for Chrysler

http://www.usatoday.com/money/autos/2008-11-26-cerberus-daimler-chrysler_N.htm

HOT Potato, HOT Potato, 1..2..3!

Rob Dawg said...

Of course Cerberus was misled. Cerberus was the stupidest guy in the room. It was their lot in life to left holding the bag.

Full lawyers employment act.

marinite2 said...

Did Swann ever admit he was wrong?

Rob Dawg said...

Are you kidding? He's still calling anyone who brings it up the most vile things. I've pretty much come to the conclusion that he is one of those rare things so completely devoid of human decency that even worldwide scorn can't bring him to do the right thing and apologize for the horrific things he's done.

anonymous said...

Peter Schiff was right.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I0QN-FYkpw