If we are going to be forced to look at the horrific blowoff we are being set up for the least they could do is flash some skin to keep us distracted. Do we muddle along, grinding mild daily losses, sell the news at 2:15 ET or get one more rate drop generated CNBCgasm?
Don't ask for any rational analysis. These markets defy rationality. Nobody seems worried that the markets are so unstable they can move 11% in 2 hours. Melt up/melt down it doesn't matter. Well it does matter as hedge funds have survived a few more weeks to do even more damage. I think the set up is a mirror of Casey's first collapse. Keep up appearances until the Enron moment.
21 comments:
I think the set up is a mirror of Casey's first collapse.
Not fair.
who is this vixen?
I agree that market volatility is not a good sign. Many of these big moves up have been on thin volume; if yesterday had been record volume, that would be one thing, but such a huge move on middling volume is not an indicator of strength. What this market needs is stability, and this isn't it.
I also am convinced that hedge funds are suffering in this environment. Massive redemptions have meant that they have had to unwind their positions, and since so many of them were making the same plays, they are all having to unwind at once at atrocious prices. A few lucky funds took contrary bets and have made big money, but even they will have difficulty going forward as there are no longer any sure bets.
This market is the very picture of the famous Keynesism that "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." Cash is king.
The Most Valuable Company in the World is...
Well, since you started it, my favorite newswoman is Suzanne Stone
@Lex - Agree 100%. Yummy.
@24601 - That is one nasty short squeeze. Hurts just watching it from outside. You know there are some "investors" who lost everything.
And just further proof there is a God:
Hedge funds make £18bn loss on VW
BTW you can vote for the hottest CNBC babe here.
JvJ, thanks for the link, that short squeeze is something else. That, plus the UAL meltdown from a couple months back, make for a strong argument against putting in stop orders; when a stock goes crazy, stop orders can get triggered at terrible prices when the best option is to hold the stock and ride out the storm. Of course, shorting a stock leaves you no choice but to be exposed to margin calls; quick rule of thumb, don't short anything where you can't make a margin call if the price doubles.
JVJ,
Excellent linky goodness.
I wonder how much yesterday flushed out shorts from our market? It looks like some manipulators are doing the rinse/repeat cycle as today commodities are bouncing. Probably with the profits from yesterday's pop.
So I actually bothered to read Casey's hate page, and it is completely devoid of any rational understanding of his situation.
1. The slanted, sarcastic and downright nasty comments/blogs/wikis have tarnished my own online reputation as well as the reputation of my family and anyone who publicly associated with me.
[You created your own reputation with crimes, schemes, ineptitude and crappy attitude. Didn't your own brother accuse you of ruining the family name?]
2. The constant dripping of negativity made me question my abilities/worth and has added to my feeling of depression and lack of motivation.
[Your worth was reflected on your credit card statements. Your abilities were shown through your failures.]
3. I am constantly being reported to any and every government agency for every conceivable wrong-doing there is.
["Stop breaking the law @$$hole!!!" -Liar Liar]
4. I’ve had real-life stalkers driving by my houses and the houses of my relatives/associates taking pictures and posting them online.
[OK can't argue with that one.:) It's sucks to be a celebrity in that respect.]
5. Some of the players in the “haterz” community even took it upon themselves to interfere in my marriage, sabotage any income or media opportunities that come my way and even take me to court over frivolous matters!
[You damaged your marriage worse than any haterz ever could. Most haterz recommended you stop playing around with your marriage. It was up to you to make things work. As for court see no. 3 above.]
I'm studying up on options right now. They seem to scare a lot of people but used rightly they can be a way to reduce risk considerably. Also, there are options play that are direction neutral but play on volatility, which is tailor made for this market.
On topic (sort of), the teleprompter has allowed news networks to dispense with any requirements of intelligence on the part of their broadcasters, which has, not surprisingly, resulted in a slew of attractive but thoroughly empty talking heads. CNBC seems to have a corner on the only attractive women in news who can discuss the news in any depth extemporaneously (or even know what "extemporaneously" means without reading the definition off the teleprompter, for that matter.)
But I never got the hang-up with preferring to get news from an attractive woman. If I wanted to just sit and watch attractive women I'd be watching something ridiculous on E!; if I want news and real analysis, I'd be watching . . . umm . . . hmm, I'm really working on this one. Rick Santelli, maybe just a handful of others. I honestly do just fine having my dessert separate from the main course.
Pleather, yes, there are option plays that are pure bets on volatility, but the implied volatility in this market is so crazy high that options are very, very expensive right now. The best money to be made right now is in writing options, but to do so you have to have deep pockets to make huge margin calls, not to mention guts of steel.
Somebody out there is making phenomenal money writing puts, but even so I wouldn't want to be them. I wouldn't be able to sleep at night.
PV - Agree completely. I remember when CNN was a real news station. Thye were kind of a throw back to the old days. I recall Tienimen(sp?) square in China - Other stations were broadcasting CNN because they had the best feed. Gulf war 1 - CNN news crews freed Kuwait City, they were on the ground before the military got there.
Now, they're doing comedy news shows.
What happened? Watching international news is nice - they have a whole different approach.
Fed cuts rate to zero. you heard it hear first! ;)
What happened to the news? You really have to be careful of government propaganda. They consider it a right in wartime. There are departments, and whole floors in buildings devoted to this. For example, whenever you read the words "Al Queda in Iraq," it is the government covering its ass.
It's official:
Fed Cuts Rate to 1% to Avert Prolonged Recession
Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point to 1 percent, matching a half-century low, in an effort to avert the worst U.S. economic downturn in the postwar era.
I think I found the bottom.... no, this is the bottom... no, this.
I don't thing they are going to get lucky this time before they hit 0%. It is the only weapon they have, and they are blowing it.
LC,
rate cuts in this environment are like shooting a BB gun at a grizzly. You're only going to piss him off. There is absolutely nothing the guberment can do to avert a deep recession. What they can do is make it worse which IMO they are doing a great job.
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