Saturday, October 11, 2008

A Pox On Both Your Houses

These two mountain retreats are within blocks of each other. Let's run the numbers first:

House #1:
1765 Twin Lakes Dr
Wrightwood, CA 92397
Price: $xxx,xxx
SQ. FT.: 576
$/SQ. FT.: $259
LOT SIZE: 5,100 Sq. Ft.

House #2:
1272 Edna St
Wrightwood, CA 92397
Price: $xxx,xxx
SQ. FT.: 775
$/SQ. FT.: $310
LOT SIZE: 3,800 Sq. Ft.
TYPE: Single family
STYLE: Other
The secret is exposed partially when you notice the house on the tiny lot (#2) is $310/sf. Let's move on to the sales history:

House #1:
Sales History
Date Price Appreciation
Oct 13, 1998 $60,000
Jun 11, 2003 $129,000 17.9%/yr
Jun 02, 2006 $225,000 20.6%/yr

Take advantage of this price of a short sale!!!!!!!!!!!!!!This cabin is a little gem. Refurbished natural wood. One bedroom plus unpermitted loft for children. Laundry room inside. Economical gas insert in ceramic tiled fireplace. Unique wood storage shed designed to accomodate snow load. Huge private lot with beautiful trees and fencing; older concrete house foundation on lot. Good vacation getaway, ski rental cabin, or rental. Room to build a new house beside this one on lot.

House #2:
Sales History
Date Price Appreciation
Aug 01, 1990 $125,000
Sep 10, 1993 $105,000 -5.5%/yr
Aug 09, 2002 $108,000 0.3%/yr
Sep 24, 2004 $174,500 25.3%/yr
Charming Mountain Cottage!
What the Owner Loves: Minutes from Mt. High Ski Resort Extremely cute inside and out

House #1 is pricing towards reality. Probably because they bought Jun '06. House #2 saw the previous owner realize $60k in 24 months and thinks that is about right. Priced to sit.

This is where we are now. Wishing prices and needs prices and neither even remotely in line with market prices. $259/ft? $310/sf? We have a long way to go. Talk to me when we are near replacement costs $110/sf or lower. Have fun looking at those price histories. Wow.


Paul said...

Finally...FIRST! I think we will not see a bottom until 2010 at earliest.

Lou Minatti said...

I like the first one, but what's with the chain link fence?

Rob Dawg said...

Congrats for Paul.
They probably had a dog. It isn't too uncommon although the whole yard is strange. $85k and I'll snap it up. That's the thing. These places are sitting "no bid." I'm expecting cascade failure event once all the equity is gone. We are seeing it in the high desert towns 20 miles away.

segfault said...

I made the mistake of updating my portfolio in Quicken yesterday (hadn't done it in a week or so...) Ouch! Perhaps Business Week should run a cover story entitled "The Death of Free Market Capitalism..."

Regardless of their stock prices, I bet that the oil companies and the health care companies will continue to make money.