Monday, October 13, 2008

Still 8800

Wow, +586 as I type. Still not enough to change my view. We are trading on a ledge of 8800 with some incredible volatility. We went down past my 8600-9000 on Friday. We are currently above the same 9000 right now.

Seriously whack. What makes the components of the Dow 30 worth 6% more than on Friday? No, really. This is catching a falling knife while standing in an acid shower. We've entered a period of wild desperation gambling. We barely touched historical multiples yet the meme has morphed into one of an historical buying opportunity.

Fearless prediction:
"Dead cats bounce. Once."

24 comments:

Property Flopper said...

First we have to see how other countries markets react.

Benoit™ said...

Artist's rendition of balding Casey at age 40. ;-)

Property Flopper said...

Benoit - can't be accurate, it shows him in a clean shirt and a tie. I can't recall a single homeless person I've met who wears ties. By the time CS is 40, he'll be in the typical layered look of the hard core homeless.

Add a dirty sweat shirt (complete with sweat), a rain slicker, etc. along with a layer of dirt and some of the "meth zits" on his face and it'll be more accurate.

Benoit™ said...

He'll still be living with Mommy and Daddy and playing "Cargo Cult" Big-Boi-Businessman™. :-)

Rob Dawg said...

Benoit,
Saw your other workz. Serious mad skillz.

Property Flopper said...

If they'll take him back. Sadly, I think they will. Not sure what it is going to take to get them to go "tough love" on him, but he'll never grow up until they do.

I do like the diagnosis of "cargo cult" - it fits so well. I'm wondering if he'll put out mock planes in the parent's back yard, trying to lure in corporate jets.

Rob Dawg said...

If he comes clean on Goldspring they won't take him back this time. I've seen (won't discuss) last best and final offers from parents. This time has those conditions written all over it.

Tom Cernin said...

They keep deleting my post over at True(Lies)Casey so I will post it here in the hopes someone can answer it.

I received an email today saying Casey worked for the guy behind http://www.investingnotes.com

Does anyone know if it is true?

How long did he work for him?

What did he do?

Why did he leave?

Rob Dawg said...

Tom,
This "Tim" does not appear to be anything more than a Casey Lamprey™ which is the proper term for what the suddenly vindictive Caseypedia people are calling Walrusim™.

Anyone ever frustrated by CaseyWorld™ distortion fields are welcome to post here.

Tom Cernin said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Tom Cernin said...

Thanks, Rob. Tim sent me an email saying Casey never worked for him. It was the same comment he left on the blog. Knowing what we know about Casey wouldn't everyone deny having any association with him if they could? Even if Casey did work for him would it not be smart for him to deny it?

Jean ValJean said...

Rob:

That would be Daniel W. Moore, one of his GSPG pumping buddies:

http://truecasey.com/2008/09/19/why-do-i-keep-putting-up-with-the-hate/#comment-6651

http://truecasey.com/2008/08/25/focusing-on-the-right-thing/#comment-3480

Akubi said...

OT, but I’m feeling really annoyed and this is a good enough place as any to rant about the latest crop of idiotic California props.
I voted NO on just about everything, but prop 2 and a certain prop regarding high speed rail (sorry Dawg ;)) – plus I decided we could probably save taxpayer’s money on 5. Why waste expensive prison space on drug addicts?
Anyway, I’ve been sick and my mom called to check in on me while I was sealing my absentee ballot and I could not believe she planned to vote NO on Prop 2 and YES on a bunch of BS that will cost this bankrupt state much more than it can afford.
She suggested that (as usual) I care more about animals than people – the billion dollar BS children's hospital act. Fuck that. I’m tired of paying for other people’s mistakes/kids. I do believe in a good education for all kids, but I don’t know where the hell my taxes are going these days. They just keep getting dumber and more illiterate by the second.

Kevin said...

"Artist's rendition of balding Casey at age 40. ;-)"

My God - he is going to turn into Vladmir Putin! He'll be invading Georgia before we know it...

Michael Ryan said...

"Wild desperation"? Wild enough to make Paul Krugman a Nobel laureate?

Rob Dawg said...

Michael.
This one has me scratching my head too. His global economic theories are at best ineffectual. But then I think the worst econ prize ever was Coase for his even more flawed theory.

Akubi,
No worries. The high speed rail won't get built no matter how many vote for it. There just plain old isn't enough money. Your vote just means we'll waste $2b chasing a fantasy.

Akubi said...


GENTELMEN,
M. SINGH has been busy with official duties, but I would like to share his last missive.

Akubi said...

@Dawg,
What are you voting YES on? There clearly is not enough money for *anything*.
However,
I see a sweet New Deal opportunity in high speed rail.

Lost Cause said...

Still 8800?

You know how massive the drop will be, after a day like today?

Rob Dawg said...

I'm thinking we will bounce around 8800 for a bit. If it appears the TARP is working we could revisit 10k for the last time until inflation makes 10k worth 6k. Inflation will crush P/E multiples. I am more of the forming opinion that we bounce around a bit here and then just grinding bear down at least 1000 but possibly 2000 from here trough next spring. I'm just wagging here. It will be a while before I can process all the competing datums.

w said...

Wow, Japanese up 13%. The truth is NOBODY knows anything. Hide whatever you want to keep. Including women and children. I am thinking New Zealand again.

Rob Dawg said...

8%, 10%, 13%!

This is irrational. There's no event that justifies swings like that short of disasters.

Anything still on the table you deserve to lose.

Lex said...

"Anything still on the table you deserve to lose."

Laugh if you will, I'm long Amalgamated Lint and Consolidated Dust.

“Sell! Sell! — what? everyone’s selling? Then buy, man! Buy!”

w said...

Here is an interview with my favorite character Marc Faber.

http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2008/s2389900.htm