Thursday, October 09, 2008

Dow 10k, 9k. 8k, ...

Sept 26th 11,143
Oct 3rd 10,325
Oct 8th 9k+
Oct 9th close 8,572 pending settlement.

This might be capitulation if tomorrow does not reverse.

'Bout freakin' time! I've been waiting for more than two freakin' years for the markets to agree with me.

Time to buy? I don't know yet. The signals I follow don't flash the moment the trends reverse.

30 comments:

Property Flopper said...

FIRST of all, I'm not Nigel (and Thank God for that!)

Rob Dawg said...

Rob Dawg writes:
MLM writes:

My $.02 worth is that we are most definitely not there yet. However, we are due for a pause, an election, and a chance for everyone to nibble at the idea that we are there yet. FCB's around the world have fully opened the spigots (even Trichet has signed up). In the mid to long run, it won't make any difference at all.


My thesis has been that the thing that will be different this time is speed. Events will transpire faster than can be understood nevermind controlled.

The hedgies and CDS brainiacs thought they always had enough time to get out of the house ahead of the others. That didn't turn out like they expected. The banks thought they could recapitalize before bank runs closed them down. Another fail moment. Next up will be cascade homeowner defaults. There's a reason why the new political meme is "keep people in their houses." THey are scared and need an immobility class to buy more time. Fail, I guarantee it.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 10.08.08 - 11:56 pm | #
----
Cripes was that only yesterday?

Pleather Murse said...

I came within a hairsbreadth of buying some SPY today about five minutes before the close at 92 or thereabouts. Got all the way to the confirmation screen then clicked cancel at the last second. Maybe I'm losing my nerve.

Rob Dawg said...

Pleather,
We are in capital preservation mode. You did the right thing by not losing any money.

Aaron said...

my guess was 8375 which I believe we will pass through that in the coming day(s). I screwed up one thing. I have a policy with Prudential and I have a bunch of shares. I forgot about it and it has last 60% or so the past couple of weeks. oh well can
t win em all.

Rob Dawg said...

This is a ledge on a cliff.

Aaron is not disagreeing IMO. Just because my 8800 was hit doesn't mean I have to stay with it.

I'm thinking an exaustion pause. Whew, we "fixed" the problem. That problem being P/E.

New paradigm will eventually be understanding 2-3% is good in a deflationary environment.

wagga said...

Anybody thinking the clowns will give the circus a day off tomorrow?

Bet they are talking about it.

Dolph said...

Dawg, I agree. Most people agree that 2-3% is good. Too bad Murse Boi doesn't get it. He'd be well of right now if he followed yours, mine and others advice to sell GSPG at .06.

Zintradi said...

Dawg, I bow to your correct analysis... I wish you would have been wrong, but alas...

Rob Dawg said...

Jeez. I was wrong. I even banded my call as 8600-9000 and was still wrong.

Timid me also only had enough nerve to "joke" about market closures.

Remember, I'm sitting in a govt assured MMF and waiting for signs of a bottom to invest in what I expect to be a long term bull and inflation hedge run.

What needs to happen now is for the boomers to panic.

Dolph said...

They won't panic anytime soon. Where would they put what is left?

H Simpson said...

Screw those morons on tv who yak how great the market is. I cannot believe they let Cramer on tv, even as comedy. boo-yah my kister.
Wonder how many saps he has ruined this month?

Folks have lost 30-70% this year.

i have taken a beating with my t note based funds for the past 2 years because of inflation. Now I laugh. Even real inflation losses are not as bad as this hair cut. Since 2000, I get my 5% every year while the market is all over the place.

But I am getting ready to invest some of the cash I have put aside.
Obama or McCain, there will be a bump up after the elections. There will be crash after thanksgiving when the ugly retail numbers come in.
There will be a bump after the corination in Jan.
After that, all bets are off.


They ought to line up and shoot anyone who says "Who could have known?". A hack like me saw this coming 2 years ago.

Got the wife, neighbors and all my race crew to reduce debit, raise cash and get out of stocks by early summer.
Makes me smile when I get emails saying Thanks for the advice.

Have to pass some of that on to the folks here.

Pleather Murse said...

Actually Cramer (who took today off for some tribal holiday) has been fairly moderate lately. He has been telling people to get out when they can. Still, he waxes Pollyannish too much for me. I am an afficianado of Fast Money (not Mad Money) ... I find the five opinions combined more realistic than Cramer's cult of personality. I often watch Fast Money twice (it reruns at midnight) to catch any points I missed at 5pm. It's a veritable trade school. That and Kudlow are two of the smartest things on t.v.

w said...

Cramer is bright and an interesting look at a world I will never have a glimpse of. I used to listen to his radio show on my iPod. I like to hear how other people think to understand their actions. I clearly remember his recommendations to buy IB's at the top because they were so good they could print money. Oh and GE too. I never bought a thing on his advice. In fact I was buying gold coins and selling my house. I even bought his books at thrift stores for $1 each.

Only -1646 to go! I was given a vision by my three breasted oracle.

Lou Minatti said...

Weren't the shorts allowed to play again today after being banished?

Lost Cause said...

Gerald Wieczorek of the U.S. Geological Survey, an expert on Yosemite rock slides, said even large slides are not unusual in the park and that substantial slides can occur as often as a dozen times a year.

"It's rare when they don't occur," he said. "And, typically, they start around this time of year," when rain and freezing overnight temperatures loosen the rock.

Wieczorek, who has studied the 160-year recorded history of Yosemite slides, said the sheer granite walls of the valley will always be prone to slides.

"It's the steepest area," he said. "They're going to occur there, and occur regularly."

Rockslide threatens Curry Village at Yosemite

Lou Minatti said...

Today is the first day that short selling is allowed in 950 financial stocks (originally 799) since the Securities and Exchange Commission imposed a temporary halt three weeks ago.

Lou Minatti said...

Holy crap, look at what's going on in Asia right now!

wagga said...

@LC

In a parallel universe.

Rob Dawg said...

Wagga suspects correctly that those were some of my favorite tent-cabins.

I'd suspect paranoia if the universe really weren't out to get me.

Pleather Murse said...

Never mind Asia, take a holy crap look at the DJ/S&P futures. Dow futures currently -210 at 8388. S&P futures currently -26 at 886.

Rob Dawg said...

Lou,
10% phehh. It's not like it was a couple hundred points or anything. ;-)

We are setting up for capitulation.

Edgar Alpo said...

nikkei down 75% over twenty year span. It's different here. BWAHAHA!! Keep groping for a bottom suckers!!

Lab Dog™ said...

The Economist

w said...

and on that note...

http://gothamist.com/2008/10/09/wall_street_needs_relief_in_more_wa.php

Pleather Murse said...

Several trades on CNBC have noted that we're setting up for a "monster rally" short term. I think Guy Adami called it a "rip-your-face-off" rally. Expected it today but we didn't get capitulation yet. Tomorrow is the start of a three-day weekend (Columbus Day / Native American Peoples Genocide Remembrance and White Liberal Guilt Wallowing Day.) Maybe we won't get enough volume to get the capitulation needed before that monster bear rally.

wagga said...

I don't have access to all the historical stats of previous DJIA peaks & valleys, so I'm just gonna make a scientific wild ass guess (SWAG).

I expect that investors will believe that the basket cannot fall below 50% of the high. (ca. 14500/2 = 7250.) However, if you factor in the +5% "I don't want to be left behind"
scheme, then the bottom is likely to be (ca. 14500* .55 = just under 8000)

Just my SWAG. Your mileage may vary.

But wait. There's more.

Given the huge amount of funds seeking to be invested by the enormous number of boomers at their peak earnings - once bottom is established - all bets are off.

cedarpine said...

Here's a comment I left on Casey's blog that never made it through.
I guess I can see why, it's pretty outrageous, isn't it?

---------------------------------------------
Casey Serin on October 9, 2008 said:

You loooozers… the opt-in page is supposed to be light.


What you're trying to do here is called Direct Marketing. It's a fairly old discipline; the internet is just it's newest form.

Back in the good old days, when sending unsolicited mail, you have a barrier every step of the way, and your ad copy had to overcome it. The steps are:
Getting the letter delivered (often bulk mail does not make it to its destination.)
Getting the letter looked at (obvious junk mail is immediately thrown away.)
Getting the letter read (letter is opened, the headline is read, and the letter isn't rejected and trashed)
Completing the sale ($$$$)

Now, with ebook sales, its:
Getting them to your site (google adwords. Ad copy has to be compelling and relevant)
Getting them to start reading (instead of immediately hitting the 'back' button, or it's a wasted PPC.)
Getting people to opt-in (so you can still email-market to them, and the lead is not lost.)
Getting people to buy ($$$$)

You need a very compelling Google ad to get even a 1% click rate. (and if you attract the wrong people, it's wasted money.)
You need a very compelling headline to prevent an instant 'back' click.
You need a very compelling sub-headline and copy to get an opt-in.
You practically need a miracle to get them to buy your ebook.

Realistically, figure on a 1/2% conversion rate from Pay Per Click to purchase. At roughly $1 per click you'd need to charge $200 for your ebook to break even.

Read Dan Kennedy for inspiration.

I'm sincerely trying to help here.

Lab Dog™ said...

Casey Serin can shove it up his ass.com (not kidding this time).
His greedy, slimey shit represents everything that pisses me off.
Throw KC and all of the illegal aliens who defaulted on their mortgages to a special space in hell.
I am one pissed off MoFo.

H Simpson said...

Lab Dog

Don't forget to make room for those scumbag bankers.

Any of you catch cspan when Cong Waxman took apart the ceo and ex ceo of AIG?

As much as I think Waxman is a political hack, he exposed those 2.