Housing Bubble, credit bubble, public planning, land use, zoning and transportation in the exurban environment. Specific criticism of smart growth, neotradtional, forms based, new urbanism and other top down planner schemes to increase urban extent and density. Ventura County, California specific examples.
Tuesday, October 07, 2008
Tight Buns
Credit is tight, the political race is not. No doubt any rise in the markets will be reported as a success of government intervention and anticipation of an Obama administration.
OK - We had a 500 point drop. Tomorrow, we'll bounce back a portion of that (say 150). SOMEONE will come out and say something positive and the media will claim that is why the DOW went up. NOTHING to do with bouncing back from an over reaction... happens every time.
I did find it funny - the headlines were the Fed Chairman speaks and the DOW drops 300 points! This right after he spoke. No mention that most of that drop was BEFORE he spoke.
Prop Flop, The markets haven't been rational for months. This is what happens when the rules are changed for some but not all and/or potential rule changes are leaked to some.
Next, corn rotting in the silos as transportation costs exceed delivered prices. Won't be that bad for the farmers as their hedging will actually work as intended.
Rob, the trolls are a sign of success. Nobody trolls empty waters.
For some time it was a tight competition between McCain and Obama as to who could sink their own campaign the quickest, but Obama has put his ship on cruise control while McCain is blowing his own boat to pieces. Obama will sail through the wreckage and into the Presidency.
It didn't have to be that way; as much as the press (and anonymous bloggers) hate Palin, if McCain had let her meet with the media and be herself, she would have fared reasonably well. As it is, McCain kept her out of sight, which only fueled suspicion, and stuck with a very pessimistic campaign in a year when what voters wanted to hear was optimism. Optimism is something McCain can do well, but not this year, apparently. Oh well . . . better luck next time, John. Oh, wait.
On the other hand, I agree with some of the PUMAs that an Obama Presidency will be a far cry from the FDR II that its supporters think it will be. Obama will have neither the support nor the funding for a Great Deal Redux, and in four years Republicans may be in good shape to come back in a big way.
The Dems have successfully positioned Obama as "not Bush." They will be punished for that half-truth by winning the Presidency with a candidate ill equipped for the job and doubly politically unconnected and trebly perceived as internationally naieve.
I honestly tried like 4 spellings and gave up wondering if Fraudy was so petty as to call me on it.
Wagga thanks for that, I'll probably remember it now.
And how do you see the future so clearly? Is it your big brain, or is it some sort of mystical intuition that you possess?
It's all in the moustache. The walrus moustache is a miracle of sensory perception bordering on the mystical, able to tease out tasty morsels in murky conditions.
Hey what the heck happened here the last day or so?
My 2012 prediction is that Romney runs as the GOP "Mr Fix-it Businessman", and a poor economy coupled with welfare expansion makes a lot of independent voters mad. It may be enough to win, who knows. Even with an even smaller mainstream media, it's always going to be tough when the media is so desperately in love with a candidate like Barack Hussein Obama.
Normally i'd think the same thing but I still haven't parsed why Mitt didn't catch on this time. My only germ of a thought is what happened the first time Reagan ran.
Too bad McCain can't channel Nietzsche via the radioactive walnuts that have left him neck-less. If you ever bothered to read his books, Obama was a Nietzsche enthusiast (and it shows).
I have a couple friends who work on committees in Congress (one dem, one gop), and both agree that Romney is positioning himself for 2012. I just don't see either of these two bozos as a tough incumbent to topple.
I think I'll go out and get a cardigan and wait for the televised address telling us the good times are behind us and settle in for a 4 year depression.
I'm jsut glad the Wife works in health care... at least she'll have work untill the Obamunists nationalize the industry and she gets cut rate wages.
Oh well I suppose when he raises taxs on those that employ people we'll all be better.
What concerns me about the "American people" these days is how fractured and confused their brains happen to be. I blame it on a lack of decent leadership. Walnuts has clearly sold his soul and is too old and stupid to be a leader. Palin probably never had a soul and is too extraordinarily stupid to be a leader. Voting Repug = voting for the end of the U.S of f-ing A.
In the history of the world, it has been normal for a nation with a more effective (brass/steel/explosives) military technology to bear down & enslave conquered nations.
After the atomic weapon deployment in Japan, this country not only withheld the boot but actively rebuilt the aggressor country.
That is astonishing. In my opinion, the most amazing act in modern history.
So we have wasted the high moral ground - Why are we now screwing up so badly? And so recently?
Arugula contains Folic Acid metabolites that screw up my blood chemistry to the point that that my blood clotting mechanism is compromised - possibly with really bad consequences. Rat poison keeps me alive. Still enjoy Marmite, though.
Hi Wagga, On PBS, they are looping through the debate again. The weirdest thing about how royally pissed off I am about everything these days is that I feel like I'm in an infinite loop. Fuck Nietzsche! He ruined my life. Should have stuck with the f-ing monastery.
Things will be so bad in 4 years that George Bush will be swept back into the White House while millions of liberals lie about how they are going to run off to Canada and France. Meanwhile organic arugula eaten raw will have an outbreak of e. coli so bad that The Daily Kos has nothing posted for two days except the FDA press release. Irate liberals demanding government oversight then force the FDA to regulate the sale of arugula by only allowing it for sale in cooked forms. Arugula demand drops like the stock market in 2009 and anemia rates in Marin skyrocket.
Hey - I've got an idea! Let's play "call the bottom". Rob put forth 8800 as the low point for the DOW - might want to revise that after today, might not.
Let's get everyone's best guess for the lowest close of the DOW between now and 1 January.
I'm thinking it'll hit 8500, but I'm not terribly optimistic about things right now.
I'll stick with 8800 for now. The biggest mistake in these types of calls is to keep adjusting until you fail. That's the Fed policy these days isn't it? Keep adjusting to fail.
There's just too much money still sloshing around for the next ledge to go below 8600. I should make that clear. I say 8800 but 9000 and 8600 are the size range anyone could be expected to actually calculate. the actually number is for bragging and stuff.
After 8800 we'll revisit but you have to understand the world of 8800 is so different from Dow 13k that when Dow was 13k and I was looking at 9600 it was with the same reasoning. Right now it see the ledge at 8800 but when we get there I'll have to look around.
Rob - Reasonable, and probably accurate. I'm picking 8500 for similar reasons, I think it'll continue down a bit, but there is value there that when it gets low enough, someone will pick it up.
Of course, one should never underestimate the stupidity of people in large groups.
Fairly short term too - just between now and 1 Jan. A lot can (and will) happen between now and then, at a minimum, we'll have a new president elect and (I strongly suspect) at least one more rate cut and another major bank fail.
Wait for December when it is 12 degrees in the northeast and President elect Obama is striking an accord with Hugo Chavez to nationalize heating oil companies and supply subsidized fuel to the electorate. The jubilation for liberals will be fading as they realize nothing has changed in the economy. Conservatives will be busy arranging assets to avoid taxation and eyeing the stock market as entirely to well documented. 6933 by Cristmas.
I think we need to do a road trip to Sacto and then all get together and ambush Casey, point and say "HaHa." Not to be cruel but to set a definitive bottom.
Watching Paulson.
Weird. Why are the first words always about tuition loans?
Credit is tight, the political race is not. No doubt any rise in the markets will be reported as a success of government intervention and anticipation of an Obama administration.
64 comments:
FIRST!
Darn...
OK - We had a 500 point drop. Tomorrow, we'll bounce back a portion of that (say 150). SOMEONE will come out and say something positive and the media will claim that is why the DOW went up. NOTHING to do with bouncing back from an over reaction... happens every time.
I did find it funny - the headlines were the Fed Chairman speaks and the DOW drops 300 points! This right after he spoke. No mention that most of that drop was BEFORE he spoke.
Paul,
You get the "murst" by default. Fraudy is reposting from the previous thread.
Prop Flop,
The markets haven't been rational for months. This is what happens when the rules are changed for some but not all and/or potential rule changes are leaked to some.
Next, corn rotting in the silos as transportation costs exceed delivered prices. Won't be that bad for the farmers as their hedging will actually work as intended.
does that mean corn prices will come down now?
Oh, and my predicted low for the Dow 3 months ago was 9500... I guess I need to go to the 8000's now.
Rob, the trolls are a sign of success. Nobody trolls empty waters.
For some time it was a tight competition between McCain and Obama as to who could sink their own campaign the quickest, but Obama has put his ship on cruise control while McCain is blowing his own boat to pieces. Obama will sail through the wreckage and into the Presidency.
It didn't have to be that way; as much as the press (and anonymous bloggers) hate Palin, if McCain had let her meet with the media and be herself, she would have fared reasonably well. As it is, McCain kept her out of sight, which only fueled suspicion, and stuck with a very pessimistic campaign in a year when what voters wanted to hear was optimism. Optimism is something McCain can do well, but not this year, apparently. Oh well . . . better luck next time, John. Oh, wait.
On the other hand, I agree with some of the PUMAs that an Obama Presidency will be a far cry from the FDR II that its supporters think it will be. Obama will have neither the support nor the funding for a Great Deal Redux, and in four years Republicans may be in good shape to come back in a big way.
The Dems have successfully positioned Obama as "not Bush." They will be punished for that half-truth by winning the Presidency with a candidate ill equipped for the job and doubly politically unconnected and trebly perceived as internationally naieve.
"a candidate ill equipped for the job and doubly politically unconnected and trebly perceived as internationally naieve"
Ah... are you describing Palin? But she's not naieve, she can see both Russia and Canada from her state (but hasn't been to either of them).
"a candidate ill equipped for the job and doubly politically unconnected and trebly perceived as internationally naieve."
Did you, by chance, mean naive?
Now, if he were the governor of a border state, then we'd be good to go. Good thing he's not pasty white, huh Dawg?
"The Dems have successfully positioned Obama as "not Bush." They will be punished for that half-truth . . . "
Punished? As in winning the White House punished? Shit, they're in big trouble.
And how do you see the future so clearly? Is it your big brain, or is it some sort of mystical intuition that you possess?
@Dawg
Think Evian water & spell it backwards.
In breaking news, spelling Nazi taken out to back 40 & shot.
I honestly tried like 4 spellings and gave up wondering if Fraudy was so petty as to call me on it.
Wagga thanks for that, I'll probably remember it now.
And how do you see the future so clearly? Is it your big brain, or is it some sort of mystical intuition that you possess?
It's all in the moustache. The walrus moustache is a miracle of sensory perception bordering on the mystical, able to tease out tasty morsels in murky conditions.
Oh, you have no idea. The depths of my pettiness is legend.
But seriously, Dawg, it's like you're handing down aphorisms from Mount Nietzsche. How do you do that with a straight face?
But seriously, Dawg, it's like you're handing down aphorisms from Mount Nietzsche. How do you do that with a straight face?
Practice.
Hey what the heck happened here the last day or so?
My 2012 prediction is that Romney runs as the GOP "Mr Fix-it Businessman", and a poor economy coupled with welfare expansion makes a lot of independent voters mad. It may be enough to win, who knows. Even with an even smaller mainstream media, it's always going to be tough when the media is so desperately in love with a candidate like Barack Hussein Obama.
Normally i'd think the same thing but I still haven't parsed why Mitt didn't catch on this time. My only germ of a thought is what happened the first time Reagan ran.
But seriously, Dawg, it's like you're handing down aphorisms from Mount Nietzsche.
I think the walrus moustache is channeling Nietzsche.
Man, now *I* want to grow a walrus mustache!
@Jean ValJean,
Yeah, if I could write Mount Nietzsche aphorisms I would grow a walrus mustache too!
In other news, grumpy old Walnuts McCain is clearly losing the debate.
Maybe if he ate more arugula he wouldn't be such a loser.
Obama really looks wet behind the ears.
Doesn't matter, he's only got to not screw up and then coast for 5 weeks.
He is surely a slick archetypical Chicago pol. That's neither compliment nor criticism just observation.
Jen ValJean,
Yeah, that's what always ends up happening. The moustache just has a charisma of its own.
Man, McCain looks old. He doesn't sound old, just physically not vital.
Too bad McCain can't channel Nietzsche via the radioactive walnuts that have left him neck-less.
If you ever bothered to read his books, Obama was a Nietzsche enthusiast (and it shows).
I have a couple friends who work on committees in Congress (one dem, one gop), and both agree that Romney is positioning himself for 2012. I just don't see either of these two bozos as a tough incumbent to topple.
@son of brock,
My friend, ;)
Given your Blogger user profile, I'm a bit puzzled that you would support Romney...
BTW,
What's up with Princess Bride anyway?
Obama as fdr II??? hmmmm
I think more like Carters second term...
I think I'll go out and get a cardigan and wait for the televised address telling us the good times are behind us and settle in for a 4 year depression.
I'm jsut glad the Wife works in health care... at least she'll have work untill the Obamunists nationalize the industry and she gets cut rate wages.
Oh well I suppose when he raises taxs on those that employ people we'll all be better.
Some hope and change.
What concerns me about the "American people" these days is how fractured and confused their brains happen to be.
I blame it on a lack of decent leadership.
Walnuts has clearly sold his soul and is too old and stupid to be a leader.
Palin probably never had a soul and is too extraordinarily stupid to be a leader.
Voting Repug = voting for the end of the U.S of f-ing A.
What concerns me about the "American people" these days is how fractured and confused their brains happen to be.
You mean like Casey, who is spouting "Bush blew up WTC2" nonsense?
Americans have always been "fractured." I take it that "confused" means people who don't agree with you.
Name me a society that isn't fractured, other than brutal repressive regimes such as North Korea, where people are told to do things one way or die.
In the history of the world, it has been normal for a nation with a more effective (brass/steel/explosives) military technology to bear down & enslave conquered nations.
After the atomic weapon deployment in Japan, this country not only withheld the boot but actively rebuilt the aggressor country.
That is astonishing. In my opinion, the most amazing act in modern history.
So we have wasted the high moral ground - Why are we now screwing up so badly? And so recently?
@Lou,
Yes, I think KC's truth BS is utter BS. I refuse to encourage the POS.
Denmark, Norway and Ireland aren't nearly as fractured as the U.S. of A.
"My pussy's so hot"
http://i35.tinypic.com/dztob9.jpg
Oh no! I discovered Michael Jackson's super secret plastic love.
@FCB
So that's why Al invented the Internet(s) or Intertubes or whatever.
And it's pussies, said he, limping back from the back forty.
@Wagga,
I think Michael Jackson's foreclosed Neverland Ranch represented the height of Californicated hubris and sickness.
I love Smokin' Joe's "response"!
Arugula Motherfucker!
Do *you* eat it?!
Like a sweet, juicy peach baby!
Arugula Motherfucker t-shirt.
Dawg is an official hater blocking all arugula links and traditions.
Nietzsche's moustache is displeased.
Let's try this Arugula Motherfucker again.
@ Ms. A.
Arugula contains Folic Acid metabolites that screw up my blood chemistry to the point that that my blood clotting mechanism is compromised - possibly with really bad consequences. Rat poison keeps me alive. Still enjoy Marmite, though.
Hi Wagga,
On PBS, they are looping through the debate again.
The weirdest thing about how royally pissed off I am about everything these days is that I feel like I'm in an infinite loop.
Fuck Nietzsche!
He ruined my life.
Should have stuck with the f-ing monastery.
Things will be so bad in 4 years that George Bush will be swept back into the White House while millions of liberals lie about how they are going to run off to Canada and France. Meanwhile organic arugula eaten raw will have an outbreak of e. coli so bad that The Daily Kos has nothing posted for two days except the FDA press release. Irate liberals demanding government oversight then force the FDA to regulate the sale of arugula by only allowing it for sale in cooked forms. Arugula demand drops like the stock market in 2009 and anemia rates in Marin skyrocket.
Wow, I called the Fed rate cut a few days before it happened. Daddy Ben is quite predictable.
But who will call his break down and resignation?
Hey - I've got an idea! Let's play "call the bottom". Rob put forth 8800 as the low point for the DOW - might want to revise that after today, might not.
Let's get everyone's best guess for the lowest close of the DOW between now and 1 January.
I'm thinking it'll hit 8500, but I'm not terribly optimistic about things right now.
Below 7500 -- the 9/11 low.
8375
I'll stick with 8800 for now. The biggest mistake in these types of calls is to keep adjusting until you fail. That's the Fed policy these days isn't it? Keep adjusting to fail.
There's just too much money still sloshing around for the next ledge to go below 8600. I should make that clear. I say 8800 but 9000 and 8600 are the size range anyone could be expected to actually calculate. the actually number is for bragging and stuff.
After 8800 we'll revisit but you have to understand the world of 8800 is so different from Dow 13k that when Dow was 13k and I was looking at 9600 it was with the same reasoning. Right now it see the ledge at 8800 but when we get there I'll have to look around.
Rob - Reasonable, and probably accurate. I'm picking 8500 for similar reasons, I think it'll continue down a bit, but there is value there that when it gets low enough, someone will pick it up.
Of course, one should never underestimate the stupidity of people in large groups.
Fairly short term too - just between now and 1 Jan. A lot can (and will) happen between now and then, at a minimum, we'll have a new president elect and (I strongly suspect) at least one more rate cut and another major bank fail.
well, I'm out of the game already.. I had called 9100..
Optimists, one and all.
The three breasted vixen inspires me to call it out at 6933.
24601 -
9100 is still possible, it has to end the day below that. Sitting at 9270-ish as I type.
Wait for December when it is 12 degrees in the northeast and President elect Obama is striking an accord with Hugo Chavez to nationalize heating oil companies and supply subsidized fuel to the electorate. The jubilation for liberals will be fading as they realize nothing has changed in the economy. Conservatives will be busy arranging assets to avoid taxation and eyeing the stock market as entirely to well documented. 6933 by Cristmas.
ok, so how do I go about shorting the Euro?
ok, so how do I go about shorting the Euro?
Can't you just go long US dollar?
What's the prize for the winner?
My uneducated guess at the low: 6666, for the mark of the beast and the unlucky Chinese numeral.
It's also completely possible we'll see 12000 touched once more this year before the props fall out.
lex: 12000 this year? I seriously doubt it. It would have to go up 2500 in less than three months...that's almost 1000/month.
In this environment? If you buy that, I have some silver I could sell you. ;-)
Would you happen to have some Demarquet candlesticks?
Classic Vespas and step through Hondas.
Heck, Mr. Bigg Bigg gets close to 50 mpg ridden conservatively which IMHO is a sin. ['83 GS1100ES]
Lex Said:
What's the prize for the winner?
How about a no expense paid trip to what ever overpass Casey is living under to kick him in the groin?
Something worth winning that doesn't cost me anything. :)
I think we need to do a road trip to Sacto and then all get together and ambush Casey, point and say "HaHa." Not to be cruel but to set a definitive bottom.
Watching Paulson.
Weird. Why are the first words always about tuition loans?
Since the subject is the Dow, a stroll down memory lane:
The Dow will hit 50000 and milk will be $48 a gallon
Rob - One comment, with a title like "tight buns", that was the best pic you could find?
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