Friday, October 24, 2008


But what do I know? Walruses belong in the water regardless. Like I said, it seems too soon but this looks like the at least 8200 next step we discussed. And still no homebuilders bankrupt.

A reminder:

NYSE Announces Fourth-Quarter 2008 Circuit-Breaker Levels
NEW YORK , September 30, 2008 -- The New York Stock Exchange will implement new circuit-breaker collar trigger levels for fourth-quarter 2008 effective Wednesday, October 1, 2008.

Circuit-breaker points represent the thresholds at which trading is halted marketwide for single-day declines in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). Circuit-breaker levels are set quarterly as 10, 20 and 30-percent of the DJIA average closing values of the previous month, rounded to the nearest 50 points.

In fourth-quarter 2008, the 10, 20 and 30-percent decline levels, respectively, in the DJIA will be as follows:

Level 1 Halt
A 1,100-point drop in the DJIA before 2 p.m. will halt trading for one hour; for 30 minutes if between 2 p.m. and 2:30 p.m.; and have no effect if at 2:30 p.m. or later unless there is a level 2 halt.

Level 2 Halt
A 2,200-point drop in the DJIA before 1:00 p.m. will halt trading for two hours; for one hour if between 1:00 p.m. and 2:00 p.m.; and for the remainder of the day if at 2:00 p.m. or later.

Level 3 Halt
A 3,350-point drop will halt trading for the remainder of the day regardless of when the decline occurs.


wagga said...

Has there ever been a Level 3? Always a first time, though.

Jean ValJean said...

Futures trading have already been halted

Before the market opens.

@wagga: Great way to work in the "first".

Aaron said...

Boys put in your bids. Put em at crazy ass lows. Today and monday will be pure carnage. big name stocks will be just as slaughtered as the margin calls roll in on the big boys. JPM will look great under 30 maybe around 26. UNP at 45. I mean put in bids you never imagined could get hit. If you get served great. you will be happy later on. Obviously don't buy WFC or other similar companies ready to fold. GLTA. days like this are made for makin money! :)

Aaron said...

Rob, we will easily break under 7800 today.

Peripheral Visionary said...

As tempted as I am to think that this will be a big down day, this is a market that punishes overconfidence, and too many people are too confident of a drop for it to be as simple as that.

Aaron said...

PV. If you are saying the market won
t drop that much then fine I don't get served. Obviously we need a massive sell-off on huge volume and some recovery at the end of the day.

I must say I think you may be right if you meant it won't drop huge. It's only down 400 and change now which is not enough. Not even close to my bids. Fine. I'm patient. Might not be today but she's coming down further.

Mr. Outspoken said...

It's times like these I'm glad my finances are 200% committed to stocks with proven hard assets like GSPG and MYNG.

Peripheral Visionary said...

350 points on the Dow? That's it?


Wake me up when it crosses 8200 headed south.

Rob Dawg said...

False alarm. Nothing to see here, move along. The DJIA just screamed up 200 points. Is it drawn back to 8800? No effin' idea. Could just as well be attracted to the new 8200. The open this morning was a warning and a chance for the bigs to de-lever on the backs of the little guys.

Aaron said...

An article about metro here in DC. Also discusses transit agencies in Los Angeles, San Francisco, Atlanta and Chicago that are being affected by the credit issues right now.

AIG had guaranteed deals between transit agencies and banks under which the banks made upfront payments that the agencies agreed to repay over time. But AIG's financial problems have invalidated the company's guarantees, putting the deals in technical default and allowing the banks to ask for all their money at once.

In Metro's case, the regional transit agency could face up to $400 million in payments, the system's chief financial officer, Carol Kissal, said in an interview yesterday. One bank, KBC Group of Belgium, has told Metro that it needs to pay $43 million by next week. Metro officials confirmed the details but declined to name the bank.

w said...

If WFC was about to go broke would Buffett be buying into other banks?

Or did he pull a Rockefeller & Durant?

Rob Dawg said...

Thanks for the chewy linky goodness.

Yeah, LAMTA is up sh¡tcreek with a disastrous leaseback agreement. It also looks likely that most if not all (yes, all) of the bond/tax/spend propositions on the ballot are FAIL. Exception is a few school bonds with the criminally low 55% threshold.

Transit is about to get a Cat 5 reality check. I expect WAMTA to get a Congressional bailout. LA? Fuggetaboutit. California is about to get an arrogance adjustment. Strangely, the reason for that backlash is about the State paying far more out than getting back for decades.

Nick from Canada said...

Interesting discussion over at the GSPG board

Lost Cause said...

The lower the market goes, the greater the percentage drop for the same amount of points. So you may be used to a 500 point drop the fifth time it happens, but it might trigger one of these things. I think the worst one day drop was 27% in October of 1987.

Property Flopper said...

Off topic, but Chrysler is cutting 25% of its salaried work force. About 5000 people.

The hangover from the party of the last few years is starting to hit.

Pleather Murse said...

I keep hearing "the party's over" but I always miss the fracking party. I don't recall having any party years. Goddammit I want my party.

Aaron said...

pleather....just repeat....
'It's allgood' 10 times
'juicy nuggets' 5 times
'massive focused action' 10 times.

once you've done this you will have had yourself a casey moment. not exactly a party but it's what the Feds are doing right now.