Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Introspection Overnight

It's been a few weeks of reactivating the blog. Thing is I have little idea if it is worth it. I know Calculated Risk keeps putting out thesame data. Nothing wrong with that. I'm trying to observe the inputs not track the results. Especially since it is abundantly obvious once a data series becomes useful it starts to get gamed. So. Here is the last few weeks of blog activity.

I'm thinking 8k visits 20k page views per month is worth the effort. Somebody ask KP if that's his idea of a failed blog.


Cinco-X said...

Jobless Claims in U.S. Surge in Week After Thanksgiving

Retail sales increase running cover for spike in initial claims...

Cinco-X said...

Central banks will move goal posts to keep QE forever

Matthew Lynn...In my opinion: It’s never the right time to stop printing money

Mine as well...

Cinco-X said...

The Federal Reserve:
100 Years of Boom and Bust
By Murray Sabrin

1913 was, in many ways, one of the most extraordinary years in American history. In fact, according to one analyst a revolution took place in 1913.

1913 began with the ratification of the 16th amendment, which gives the federal government authority to tax the income of the American people directly. We will explore the income tax on April 17 next year at a symposium I will moderate. So save the date April 17 at 7 PM in the Trustee's Pavilion.

In April of 1913, the 17th amendment to the Constitution was ratified ending the selection of US senators by state legislatures. Now the U.S. Senators would be elected directly by the people.

And on December 23 President Wilson signed the Federal Reserve Act giving the United States a permanent central bank.

All these events took place at the end of what is known as the Progressive Era, a time of supposedly great reforms to benefit the common man. Half a century ago historian Gabriel Kolko challenged the orthodox view in his trailblazing book, The Triumph of Conservatism. Kolko argued that the progressive era was in reality a time when big business interests used the power of the federal government for their own benefit at the expense of the general public.

One of the last so-called reforms of the era was the creation of the Federal Reserve.

In short, the revolution of 1913 shifted power from individuals, communities and states to the federal government and its powerful allies in the private sector. Hence, the Progressive Era expanded crony capitalism in America.

Preview to a one hour documentary.

Rob Dawg said...

I went and visited CR/HCN this morning and it is worse than I thought. Bill put up the very bad initial claims as top post for all of five minutes. Worse, despite two dozen comments no one even noticed that the link to the data pointed to LAST weeks news release. Sad.

Gator Fan said...

CR is still in my RSS Feed, but you are right it's the same stuff over and over again.

Rob Dawg said...

Not just the "same stuff" but the ever decreasing value of that stuff. Add to that the growing sunshine bias and the near total lack of value added in the comments. I wish Tommy Vu and black dog would come over here or really anyplace but there as I still seek out their analyses.

Cinco-X said...

The Fed Plan to Revive High-Powered Money

Don't only drop the interest rate paid on banks' excess reserves, charge them.
By Alan S. Blinder

Unless you are part of the tiny portion of humanity that dotes on every utterance of the Federal Open Market Committee, you probably missed an important statement regarding the arcane world of "excess reserves" buried deep in the minutes of its Oct. 29-30 policy meeting. It reads: "[M]ost participants thought that a reduction by the Board of Governors in the interest rate paid on excess reserves could be worth considering at some stage."

As perhaps the longest-running promoter of reducing the interest paid on excess reserves, even turning the rate negative, I can assure you that those buried words were momentous. The Fed is famously given to understatement. So when it says that "most" members of its policy committee think a change "could be worth considering," that's almost like saying they love the idea. That's news because they haven't loved it before.

Perhaps a little saber rattling? Perhaps something more...

Cinco-X said...

Honing Your Misery Skills

1. Be afraid, be very afraid, of economic loss.

2. Practice sustained boredom.

3. Give yourself a negative identity. Allow a perceived emotional problem to absorb all other aspects of your self-identification.

4. Pick fights.

5. Attribute bad intentions.

6. Whatever you do, do it only for personal gain.

7. Avoid gratitude.

8. Always be alert and in a state of anxiety. Optimism about the future leads only to disappointment.

9. Blame your parents.

10. Don’t enjoy life’s pleasures.

11. Ruminate.

12. Glorify or vilify the past.

13. Find a romantic partner to reform.

14. Be critical.

Gator Fan said...

Does your analysis above show RSS feed reads? I'll make an effort to visit the site to ensure your reader count goes from 1-2 :)

Rob Dawg said...

My largest personality defect by far is an inability to accept praise. Considering all the other failings I've been accused of that saying a lot.

No, RSS sweeps are not counted but googlebot stuff is ticked.

TWO readers? Now I have to go back to using plurals.

Cinco-X said...

Hey Gator bout them Gators! Are you surprised Muschamp still has a job?

Rob Dawg said...

A few minutes ago:

Published: Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 12:06 p.m.
Last Modified: Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 12:06 p.m.

Florida coach Will Muschamp announced Thursday that five players are leaving the program -- fullback Rhaheim Ledbetter, tight end Kent Taylor, offensive tackle Quinteze Williams, offensive tackle Trevon Young and offensive guard Ian Silberman.

Ledbetter, Taylor, Williams and Young are transferring. Silberman, a redshirt junior this past season, graduates from UF on Saturday and has decided to play his senior year at another school in the fall.

Silberman started seven games over the past two seasons. The other four players were all reserves. Taylor, Williams and Young did not see the field during the 2013 season.

With the five players leaving, it opens scholarships that will allow the Gators to sign 21 players in February instead of only 16.

sm_landlord said...

Last time I checked, CR is still predicting DecTaper. And Mr. Market is still in panic mode. If it turns out that CR is wrong, we may yet see a big Santa Clause rally.

Cinco-X said...

Blogger Rob Dawg said...
Florida coach Will Muschamp announced Thursday that five players are leaving the program --With the five players leaving, it opens scholarships that will allow the Gators to sign 21 players in February instead of only 16.

Having 5 scholarship players jump ship is hardly cause to rejoice. The Gator's season was a disaster, and only part of that was the result of injuries...

Cinco-X said...

sm_landlord said...
Last time I checked, CR is still predicting DecTaper. And Mr. Market is still in panic mode. If it turns out that CR is wrong, we may yet see a big Santa Clause rally.

I don't think this economy can tolerate any sort of shock at this moment, and I think that "this moment", and I think that this moment will last for quite a long time. I just don't see the Fed easing, and if anything I expect to see other central banks following the Fed and easing further.

Rob Dawg said...


I don't get the taper talk at all. People were buying 10y Ts at 1.7% when the Fed was also buying. Now they are buying 10y Ts at 2.9% when the Fed is also buying. Irrational.

It is interesting. One segment is looking for a reason to "correct" despite not really needing a reason. Wait. Take that back. They need a reason lest the retail investor catch on that the game is rigged that much.

Another segment is looking to pretty up the portfolio for the end of the year. I suspect that's why Apple is doing well and AT&T poorly (post divvy). I own both.

I suspect a standoff because of opposing forces and the market in general is priced in the middle thus not helping either case.

Rob Dawg said...

Something better happen with the unsustainable 2-5-10 year T curve.

Gator Fan said...

Yeah I think if we have another season like that he's out. I'm worried about our recruiting because we are getting destroyed by FSU, heck even UCF just had their best season ever.

Lets see if he can get good results with players he recruited.

But this season was hard to watch. Rivals almost have pity for us because of the horrible season