Housing Bubble, credit bubble, public planning, land use, zoning and transportation in the exurban environment. Specific criticism of smart growth, neotradtional, forms based, new urbanism and other top down planner schemes to increase urban extent and density. Ventura County, California specific examples.
Friday, March 10, 2017
Hoocoodanode that Exurban Nation would return?
Here is the latest traffic data:
The take away is "self sustaining." Thanks to all who made it worthwhile.
Excuse me for being so fascinated with Z. It is new to m e. I found Z details with. Ranges. I think the lowest range for rental is prolly realistic. I also thing the high range for Sale is realistic, but I'm not selling so it doesn't matter. It thinks the house will appreciate $10k over the next year. I hope to have it repainted and with a new roof by that time, with a few interior improvements, so who knows? This is just a mental game I'm playing, and not for real. Now interest rates. . . They are a deadly serious game.
Short answer is that treasuries -have- to go higher. The complicating factor is Europe. Classic case of not being high enough in the tree to avoid the bear but only being a tiny bit higher than the other guy.
Selfishly; as long as my mortgages are "free money" then they are high enough. For the economy; 4% is high. Beat inflation with a few tenths premium. That's barely into the 3s although a few more tenths in anticipation of higher future inflation is understandable.
Every $1K in costs over 30 years cost $692.85 I like to deal in total cost, less how much a month and can I out run the odds. This is after taxed sweat money. IMO
Oh, yeah. In a few years there will be attempts to assume, and the "clause 17" which isn't 17 any more will come me into play. Also, the son's new house us nice enough to stay in for some years, but he won't be able to move up, without an increase in interest rates of several points. Somebody is stuck with these low rates for quite a while. The taxpayer? More home improvement instead of moving.
I wonder how the banks get compensated for the below market (rate) VA/FHA loans they make. They must take a beating when they try to sell those loans to Fannie/Freddie...
Every mortgage I have seen in the past 10-12 years has said "assumable." By that they mean you can take over the existing balance at a new rate and qualification and fees and term. Sneaky details.
VA/FHA loan rates appear to run about 25-30 bps under conventional. They collect a funding fee from the borrower (1.75%-2.10%) that conventional loans do not..so maybe the bank just keeps that fee to help offset the loss they take when they sell the loan?? I dunno...mortgages are hard
Every mortgage I have seen in the past 10-12 years has said "assumable."
when I was looking back thru old newspapers (online) yesterday while looking for home prices in late 70's/early 80's...many sellers were highlighting the fact they had an "assumable loan" the buyer could take over ("take over 8 1/2% loan!!")
Not sure if the banks still allow that..but it becomes an important selling feature in a fast rising interest rate environment..
"Sellers willing to finance" seemed to be another popular sales tool..
I agree from the borrowers perspective LBD..total cost is what matters. It seems like the bank issuing the loan would end up holding the bag on the lower rate unless the VA let's them keep some of that "funding fee" they collect.
Here is the article I found that discusses it..(and it appears the fee goes down with higher dp)
A basic funding fee of 2.15 percent must be paid to VA by all but certain exempt veterans. A down payment of 5 percent or more will reduce the fee to 1.5 percent and a 10 percent down payment will reduce it to 1.25 percent.
Part of the fee looks like mortgage insurance that drops by the size of the down payment. It still leaves the remainder of the fee unexplained and could be used in part to buy down the loan.
It is kind of like in the mechanic biz shop material charge of 5% of labor. Honestly it is a way to bypass labor cost shared with the mechanics for warranty and profit prosperous.
I think I found my answer to why FHA/VA loans have lower rates than conventional..
Because FHA mortgage bonds are backed by the government, they are considered "risk-less" to investors in Ginnie Mae bonds so FHA mortgage rates reflect this guarantee. As the global economy sputters, investors search for safe places to store their cash and Ginnie Mae -- via its FHA-insured mortgage bonds -- gives it to them.
I think that most of the greatest generation has passed already. Depression and war babies will be gone soon. Probably a generation away from the boobers being mostly gone too... Oops! I meant boomers
I guess it depends upon the reason why rates are increasing. If it's because the economy is picking up steam...that generally is good for business/stock market. If it's because inflation is perking up..that might be bad.
Banks (surprise surprise!!) will be one of the initial beneficiaries of rising interest rates...they'll be very slow to pass them on to depositors..but lightening quick to their borrowers.. lol
I don't think savings rates will go up for a long time, the FED pumped to much to need savers deposits. Look at bank dividends compared to savings rate. Buy a bank stock on a dip and collect the dividend!
Ya, buy they can't really be embarrassed if they have no shame...I voted you up where I could, but I've only got one bite per post. I stop in to see what's going on there, but the reverberation hurts my ears and my sensibility
I am sad because I've " known" poic since Irvine renter days, and don't like to think b of him as embarrassed. The son's new house appraised at 500$ over the price, but Zillow took it way down Interesting.
nPoic did a great job setting up the web site but made the error of saying he wasn't going to monitor content. From then on the snide remarks, late comment insults and outright lies and ganging up started.
Justaskn claimed I had friended Trump on FaceBook. I don't have FB. Eecon piled on making a fool of himself. When I pointed this out by using his own words it set him off even worse. They showed how biased close minded and intolerance they are.
Even Sebastian saw how bad it was and asked for civility.
Liz, who knows. The election set so many adrift as their anchors were snapped off in the storm. I agree with Krugman that the Rs aren't "leading." Yet. The unspoken part is that the Ds have yet to peacefully cede the authority that is supposed to go with that responsibility. I also know that when the Rs do find their feet it will be Krugman out front complaining about abuse of power.
Picked up my white tie and tails monkey suit. Had the head mowers run their sharp tools over my scalp. Shower, shave and I'll be public acceptable. Dress rehearsal at 5PM so a bigly Lenten lunch to carry me over.
The Cod was very good. I learned a few things. The taste was great but the batter wasn't as cooked as the fish which had perfect flavor, moisture and texture. The lemon from the garden was equally perfect.
Either thinner or drier. Alternative being thicker pieces and cooking longer. Cooking is the intersection of art and science.
It could be that my $70 oven at 400°F indicated is only 385°F.
Art, science, experience and let us not forget; dedication. This batch was good enough to serve in a restaurant. Just not as good as it could be. Honest, I am considering getting a few pounds of shrimp and figuring out exactly how hot and how many and how long and how fast to cool. You can do everything exactly the same to the ounce and second and temperature and the only variable being pot size and get different results.
Would be nice if Antipodes could settle down and Yoringe could decide to move over. I'm not asking. just saying they would understand and add.
Are you planning to purchase your next home, 1st home, that dream realized home, a vacation home, investment property or refinance your overall loan, mortgage broker California you will see it when you get your home loan
84 comments:
You are welcome.
Hehehehe. Snort.
My house is up another $250.
T bills above 2.6%.
Will they get to 3%?
4?
Excuse me for being so fascinated with Z. It is new to m e. I found Z details with. Ranges. I think the lowest range for rental is prolly realistic. I also thing the high range for Sale is realistic, but I'm not selling so it doesn't matter. It thinks the house will appreciate $10k over the next year. I hope to have it repainted and with a new roof by that time, with a few interior improvements, so who knows? This is just a mental game I'm playing, and
not for real. Now interest rates. . . They are a deadly serious game.
Short answer is that treasuries -have- to go higher. The complicating factor is Europe. Classic case of not being high enough in the tree to avoid the bear but only being a tiny bit higher than the other guy.
235k. 4.7%.
So is 4% high enough?
Is what?
Selfishly; as long as my mortgages are "free money" then they are high enough. For the economy; 4% is high. Beat inflation with a few tenths premium. That's barely into the 3s although a few more tenths in anticipation of higher future inflation is understandable.
Good Morning!
Thanks RD :)
I never rolled cost into a loan very expensive especially back when loans where double digits.
Is it too early to call; "hats everyone!"?
Nice employment gains 25-54 year olds.
Morning... Got an early morning meeting, but it seems a room full of engineers can't figure out how to configure Skype...
A group of really good engineers can make it look like it isn't their fault to cancel a meeting. :evil: 😈
But when he's getting 3.875%?
any loan with a 3 "handle" will be cherished for many decades to come.. ;<)
I just want my dounble digit cd's..lol
morning all..
"double"
What are we putting on a hat for?
"Dounble" a combination of double and doubtful. ;)
Dow 21k on the open.
Every $1K in costs over 30 years cost $692.85 I like to deal in total cost, less how much a month and can I out run the odds. This is after taxed sweat money. IMO
I would be happy for 5% short term CD's.
Oh, yeah. In a few years there will be attempts to assume, and the "clause 17" which isn't 17 any more will come me into play. Also, the son's new house us nice enough to stay in for some years, but he won't be able to move up, without an increase in interest rates of several points. Somebody is stuck with these low rates for quite a while. The taxpayer?
More home improvement instead of moving.
I wonder how the banks get compensated for the below market (rate) VA/FHA loans they make. They must take a beating when they try to sell those loans to Fannie/Freddie...
After inflation, that's more like 350 and so what? Almost nobody stays there 30 years
I think it would depend on the profit spread more then the rate.
Maybe the VA compensates Fannie/Freddie from the "funding fee" they collect from the borrower?? I dunno...
Most people never get out of debt either. a big boomer problem.
Every mortgage I have seen in the past 10-12 years has said "assumable." By that they mean you can take over the existing balance at a new rate and qualification and fees and term. Sneaky details.
Most people never get out of debt either. a big boomer problem.
Going to be an especially big problem as the greatest generation passes and skips the boomer generation with inheritance.
VA/FHA loan rates appear to run about 25-30 bps under conventional. They collect a funding fee from the borrower (1.75%-2.10%) that conventional loans do not..so maybe the bank just keeps that fee to help offset the loss they take when they sell the loan?? I dunno...mortgages are hard
Every mortgage I have seen in the past 10-12 years has said "assumable."
when I was looking back thru old newspapers (online) yesterday while looking for home prices in late 70's/early 80's...many sellers were highlighting the fact they had an "assumable loan" the buyer could take over ("take over 8 1/2% loan!!")
Not sure if the banks still allow that..but it becomes an important selling feature in a fast rising interest rate environment..
"Sellers willing to finance" seemed to be another popular sales tool..
Use the fee to buy down the interest rate? Roll the cost in to the loan. Total cost are what really matter. IMO
When we bought our first house we assumed a VA loan the seller had. They quit that as I recall during the S&L scandal.
I agree from the borrowers perspective LBD..total cost is what matters. It seems like the bank issuing the loan would end up holding the bag on the lower rate unless the VA let's them keep some of that "funding fee" they collect.
Here is the article I found that discusses it..(and it appears the fee goes down with higher dp)
A basic funding fee of 2.15 percent must be paid to VA by all but certain exempt veterans. A down payment of 5 percent or more will reduce the fee to 1.5 percent and a 10 percent down payment will reduce it to 1.25 percent.
http://www.valoans.com/purchase/closing-costs
I think they are presold, at least mostly.
I'd be willing to finance if somebody wanted to buy my condo. At at least 5 1/2%!!!
If the costs are rolled into the loan, the vet is risking nothing.
It used to be that sometimes they'd loan you repair costs. IIRC.
yes..probably pooled into a MBS and sold to fannie/Freddie at a discount (because of the below market rates)..
Part of the fee looks like mortgage insurance that drops by the size of the down payment. It still leaves the remainder of the fee unexplained and could be used in part to buy down the loan.
It is kind of like in the mechanic biz shop material charge of 5% of labor. Honestly it is a way to bypass labor cost shared with the mechanics for warranty and profit prosperous.
low (or no) down payment and no pmi seems to be the primary selling point of VA loans (from a quick look at Google)..
I think I found my answer to why FHA/VA loans have lower rates than conventional..
Because FHA mortgage bonds are backed by the government, they are considered "risk-less" to investors in Ginnie Mae bonds so FHA mortgage rates reflect this guarantee. As the global economy sputters, investors search for safe places to store their cash and Ginnie Mae -- via its FHA-insured mortgage bonds -- gives it to them.
http://themortgagereports.com/7350/fha-mortgage-rates-rising-more-slowly-than-conventional-ones
OT. the net nannies at mudfilledecon are out in force today. No criticism of past administration allowed.
We're hardware guys, so we just blamed it on the SW
I am sure it's still bush's fault. LOL!
I think that most of the greatest generation has passed already. Depression and war babies will be gone soon. Probably a generation away from the boobers being mostly gone too...
Oops! I meant boomers
I am sure it's still bush's fault. LOL!
yeah..I was just thinking to myself...didn't seem to stop them from blaming GWB for everything that went wrong during O's tenure..
the market today..
"Great!! higher rates are coming"
"oh Crap..higher rates are coming!!"
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4298698/Woman-asks-Amazon-s-Alexa-s-connected-CIA.html
Too f'kin funny
They read the fine print and didn't find the money. LOL!
H/T blackhalo
The answer is obvious big brother is listening. LOL!
If rates are going up, you will lose money. Isn't that risk?
Silly me.
I guess it depends upon the reason why rates are increasing. If it's because the economy is picking up steam...that generally is good for business/stock market. If it's because inflation is perking up..that might be bad.
Very sector dependent...
Banks (surprise surprise!!) will be one of the initial beneficiaries of rising interest rates...they'll be very slow to pass them on to depositors..but lightening quick to their borrowers.. lol
http://dilbert.com/strip/2017-03-10
I don't think savings rates will go up for a long time, the FED pumped to much to need savers deposits. Look at bank dividends compared to savings rate. Buy a bank stock on a dip and collect the dividend!
yeah I don't have much left in the equities market..but what I do..is mainly in bank stocks/ETF's.
potential to benefit from higher rates (wider margins) + deregulation + lower tax rates + divvie increases..
a lot to like there..
My CIM and PMT just ooze divvies these days. Don't care if the stock price languishes.
Cinco-X did you see the serious embarrassment I caused on mudfilledecon?I'm getting down votes all over the place. Eecon is seething.
Ya, buy they can't really be embarrassed if they have no shame...I voted you up where I could, but I've only got one bite per post.
I stop in to see what's going on there, but the reverberation hurts my ears and my sensibility
DYAC... But and vote... Sheesh
What did you do? I don't want to go on there to see.
I am sad because I've " known" poic since Irvine renter days, and don't like to think b of him as embarrassed.
The son's new house appraised at 500$ over the price, but Zillow took it way down
Interesting.
Sounds like the appraiser "hit the number." Don't worry about Zillow especially close to transactions.
I'm not. Neither is son.
nPoic did a great job setting up the web site but made the error of saying he wasn't going to monitor content. From then on the snide remarks, late comment insults and outright lies and ganging up started.
Justaskn claimed I had friended Trump on FaceBook. I don't have FB. Eecon piled on making a fool of himself. When I pointed this out by using his own words it set him off even worse. They showed how biased close minded and intolerance they are.
Even Sebastian saw how bad it was and asked for civility.
Beer battered true cod for lunch! Just mixed the batter and dropped the chunks in. Rolled on panko then oven.
Yym
Kielbasa sausage, chili no beans and yogurt for me.
I got a case of Yoplait vanilla Greek 100cal tubs from the dollar store. Nothing wrong with them. 6oz. 8/$1. Great stuff.
Friended Trump?????
Liz, who knows. The election set so many adrift as their anchors were snapped off in the storm. I agree with Krugman that the Rs aren't "leading." Yet. The unspoken part is that the Ds have yet to peacefully cede the authority that is supposed to go with that responsibility. I also know that when the Rs do find their feet it will be Krugman out front complaining about abuse of power.
He's not embarrassed. Rob was busting on eecon and sum luk, but they're so drunk on koolaid it had little effect
Ya... Sebastian being the voice of reason tells it all
You'll be sleeping in the spare bedroom tonight...
I just go on Mud and Musing to vote people down.
Not much reason to actually post there.
Picked up my white tie and tails monkey suit. Had the head mowers run their sharp tools over my scalp. Shower, shave and I'll be public acceptable. Dress rehearsal at 5PM so a bigly Lenten lunch to carry me over.
http://assistanceleagueventuracounty.org/auxiliaries.htm
Mrs Dawg is a former participant. My baby is not a baby anymore and being featured tomorrow.
Lest any object this is super-majority public service and charity not some indulgent celebration.
That's not worthy of you.
Tell Outsider yo come on down.
And Jo, too.
The only thing Italy is "walking off" is a cliff.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2017/03/09/are-investors-betting-on-an-italian-banking-crisis/#5050f72e6916
The Cod was very good. I learned a few things. The taste was great but the batter wasn't as cooked as the fish which had perfect flavor, moisture and texture. The lemon from the garden was equally perfect.
next time.
Interesting I don't know how to fix that. Make the coating thinner, maybe?
Either thinner or drier. Alternative being thicker pieces and cooking longer. Cooking is the intersection of art and science.
It could be that my $70 oven at 400°F indicated is only 385°F.
Art, science, experience and let us not forget; dedication. This batch was good enough to serve in a restaurant. Just not as good as it could be. Honest, I am considering getting a few pounds of shrimp and figuring out exactly how hot and how many and how long and how fast to cool. You can do everything exactly the same to the ounce and second and temperature and the only variable being pot size and get different results.
Would be nice if Antipodes could settle down and Yoringe could decide to move over. I'm not asking. just saying they would understand and add.
Are you planning to purchase your next home, 1st home, that dream realized home, a vacation home, investment property or refinance your overall loan, mortgage broker California you will see it when you get your home loan
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