Wednesday, March 22, 2017

Yellow Signal Checklist





https://images.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2F4.bp.blogspot.com%2F-BRolFbiRRY4%2FV0UC4CfMQcI%2FAAAAAAAAGFM%2Ffr_rVWjzal49aQlFi4jQ0boQxOukL6RfACLcB%2Fs640%2Ftrumporhoneybadger.jpg&f=1 
The cartoon has nothing to do with the subject unless you are still wearing your Nov 7th tinfoil hat.

What are some warning signs of a rough economic path ahead?

✓  Auto loan delinquencies
✓  1% market decline
✓   Capital flows of unusual vector
✓  An Exurban Nation post on the subject

We've all been watching auto loans deteriorate.  Even the Fed:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/snloansurvey/201702/default.htm
a significant net fraction of banks reported they expect asset quality of credit card and auto loans to deteriorate somewhat over 2017.

As to the 1% market decline.  I fibbed.  It wasn't the declines of the last days but the lack of bigger market behavior for the past several years.



https://fronteranews.com/investing/emerging-market-capital-outflows-expected-to-hit-fourth-successive-year-in-2017/

Although emerging markets (VWO) are enjoying popularity amongst equity investors, as mentioned in the previous article, the situation remains bleak in terms of overall capital flows. The Institute of International Finance expects capital outflows from emerging markets to continue for the fourth consecutive year in 2017.
According to the Institute, the 25 emerging markets in its group are forecast to see capital outflows amounting to a total of $490 billion.
China (ASHR) will lead the aforementioned group in outflows. The Institute expects China to witness net capital outflows of $560 billion.

 Nothing big yet but from tiny acorns mighty oaks emerge. 

A final thought.  Sears/Kmart (SHLD) has a square foot of retail floor space for every person in the nation.  

31 comments:

LBD said...

What can you say the FED is our friend. Pump the world full of dollars and they will come back. Still paying for NO Bankster left behind. ;)

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Yeah well apparently Chines people don't want to leave their money in their own an country. Isn't that worse from the Chinese point of view? Wouldn't it be nice if they invested in our infrastructure? Perhaps some double decker toll roads to alieve Cali's congestion?

Cinco-X said...

If they invest then they'll eventually need to be paid back. If these infrastructure investments don't provide a return that results in a larger tax base, then the answer to your question is no. That's an issue with the Wall. Does government revenue increase as a result of it being built? It can't be a one time increase from income taxes on labor either. It needs to be a sustainable increase

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Wells Fargo Is seeing a drop in accounts.

No surprise.

Rob Dawg said...

More drops than just the fake accounts? Wells Fargo is my Bank of America. Nasty people.

Over on Mud filled sum_luk says things are settled down now that the :redteam: has been driven off. Sad.

Sears Holdings yesterday admitted what has been obvious to me for close to 15 years that it may not be a "going concern." There won't be any "assets" left when the lights go out. How many middle America malls rely on a Sears or Kmart anchor?

Lawyerliz said...

Our k mart was torn down well over 10 years ago. It should be a prime location, but nothing has been built there.

Cinco-X said...

I'd suggest that you stay away... That's not mud... I've stopped looking since there was nothing worthwhile to see. Maybe anal sphincter and it's not a toomah will go there as well. It's a shame such an otherwise nice blog has been credited upon

Cinco-X said...

Crapped upon... DYAC

Cinco-X said...

Not enough retail in your area?

Cinco-X said...

http://bigstory.ap.org/8f45d6141e4e4cce86024af85841a9f7?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=AP

H/t engineer Jim

Rob Dawg said...

Ohhh... Just over "The Wall" :
http://scedc.caltech.edu/recent/Quakes/ci37610567.html

4.0 a few minutes ago. San Andreas waking up?

Lawyerliz said...

Our k mart was torn down well over 10 years ago. It should be a prime location, but nothing has been built there.

Cinco-X said...

How much of that rain you've been getting is stored above the San Andreas?

Rob Dawg said...

How much of that rain you've been getting is stored above the San Andreas?

All except 6-10 days worth in theory. Doubtful between damage and power limits that 3-5 days exist in practice.

LBD said...

Fracking will be to blame. However I wonder if fracking causes mini quakes could that detention energy build up preventing the big one? We didn't cover this in auto shop. :)

Cinco-X said...

http://www.businessinsider.com/star-wars-rogue-one-end-into-a-new-hope-beginning-2017-3

Fun, but not particularly important

Cinco-X said...

I've read recently that water leaking into faults could make it easier to slip, though it sounds suspiciously similar to a plot trick from Moonraker

EngineerJim said...

>That's not mud... I've stopped looking since there was nothing worthwhile to see.

I like the way it has a little flash message when the blog first comes up that says: "A place on the internet for diverse opinions". Yeah, right.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Trump proposing that 19.5 b$ be spent on NASA where I was proposing 17. Something. Give the devil his due.😈

Cinco-X said...

http://www.businessinsider.com/nunes-trump-intelligence-incidentally-collected-2017-3

Oops! He was "incidentally" spied upon, but it was an "accident". No harm, no foul

Elizabeth Merceret said...

O dyac

Cinco-X said...

Lol... Very diverse, as long as you stick with the status quo

Cinco-X said...

http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2017/03/20/americans-reject-experts-failure-history-glenn-reynolds-column/99381952/

It was experts who brought us the housing bubble and the subprime crisis. It was experts who botched the Obamacare rollout. And, of course, the experts didn’t see Brexit coming, and seem to have responded mostly with injured pride and assaults on the intelligence of the electorate, rather than with constructive solutions.

Lawyerliz said...

90% of everything is crap, and that includes experts. May.be 80% for them.

Lawyerliz said...

For mathematics the percentage is reversed.

EngineerJim said...

>Oops! He was "incidentally" spied upon, but it was an "accident". No harm, no foul

Next up, a big discussion about what the word 'wiretap' actually means -- even though it's a word that's been bandied about by the MSM for the last 3 months.

Rob Dawg said...

I am confident that President Obama did not personally shimmy up an air duct and attach alligator clips to the Trump Towers PBX box.

Lawyerliz said...

House went up 250$ ! Took 2 days.

Rob Dawg said...

House went up 250$ ! Took 2 days.

You cannot go out to Golden Cirral every night to celebrate.

I don't follow daily but zestiguess has us up ~$20 the last 30 days (per HOUR).

Rob Dawg said...

New post since Liz reminded me and we've been talking flooring.

Thomas Stone said...

The last two weeks have been a clusterchuck, but I'll put something up here about Real Estate over the weekend.