Sunday, March 26, 2017

The School Bus Doesn't Stop Here Anymore

As a followup to Tom Stone's earlier comment about young families, for your consideration:
This is a portion of zip 93010 with the same problem.   I'll give you approximately 1.2 million guesses why there aren't kids anymore.  This isn't a new thing but it has gotten extreme.  My youngest is literally the last public school attendee left and that for only a few more months.  Did I mention the newest plant? "Thread Agave." Took precautions and lost less than a pint of blood getting it in. 

68 comments:

LBD said...

Prices driven by the rich and mortgages. Wonder what cash only would do to housing and life style?

Cinco-X said...

It would be a disaster for both...

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Dawg shoulda had more kids!!!

Rob Dawg said...

"All cash" would further concentrate wealth. And think about rich schemes. Big signing bonus for moving to a new area? LLC with a single house as only asset? Doesn't make sense for a $120k house but for a $600k house it does. Notice I am assuming prices go from $240k and $1.2m to half.

LBD said...

If you owe you don't own it either. Paper wealth is the advantage to them and debt for you. No sales would drive prices down for J6PK. Way to late to practice old conservative lending policies. IMO.

EngineerJim said...

Was up in Orange County a while ago and was surprised to see schools no longer in use (primary schools). Wonder how many schools have been closed in California.

Mike said...

an early mentor of mine advised me to borrow as much money as the bank would lend and buy as much house with it as you could...

wise counsel in retrospect...wish i would have listened.. ;<)

sm_landlord said...

Borrowing as much as possible and buying as much house as possible didn't work out so well for a whole bunch of people, not that long ago.

In that area on RD's map, my guess is that most of the remaining owners are folks who got lucky in a previous homeowership lottery, then bought up with equity from a previous residence. It did work for quite a while, until it didn't.

Mike said...

Borrowing as much as possible and buying as much house as possible didn't work out so well for a whole bunch of people, not that long ago.

you have to have an abundance of "chutzpah" to pursue that strategy (and that guy had it in spades)..but it makes sense on a certain level. i.e. use OPM to bet big...you get the upside..but if your timing is wrong.."just walk away (Rene)"

sm_landlord said...

Maybe what's needed are 7 year mortgages. Isn't that the average time people stay in the same house anyway?

The strategy of betting with OPM and being prepared to walk used to be a bit more hazardous, unless you had your life structured to take bankruptcy with no consequences. But now that the FedGov is the backer for most (if not all) mortgage lending, we might as well do away with that problem for once and for all. Just make all property acquisition loans non-recourse and be done with it.

Rob Dawg said...

Where you live isn't supposed to be about investment potential. Nothing wrong with considering it but if the Hausa was worth what we paid all that would be different would be the amount we spend on straight maintenance instead of improvements.

Mike said...

yeah..this was SoCal in the early 90's (so non recourse)..obviously wouldn't want to try that strategy in a recourse state....

sm_landlord said...

If you can deal with the advert assault, check out this piece that I noticed in the dead tree fishwrap today:

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-association-liquefaction-20170325-story.html

Renting makes more sense then buying under circumstances like those described above, unless you really love risk.

Rob Dawg said...

We really should have bought that ranch on the north side of the Las Posas valley for its beachfront potential. ;).

Mike said...

I probably ended up with about the same return by staying debt free, minimizing my housing (and other) expenses, and investing the difference in the S&P.

Just didn't get to enjoy living in really nice places along the way.. ;<)

Lawyerliz said...

And didn't have to sweat making the payments.

Lawyerliz said...

There isnt much difference in payments m between 25 and 30 years. I think 25 should.be standard.

LBD said...

I have to say I have been debt free for about 15 years and it's great. I played with the devil by the normal pay as you go till I figured out how much it really cost. There is a time to dance with the devil but best not let him lead. The trend of the past is not today's and is not sustainable for a lot of people.

Lawyerliz said...

Nice to know all you really have to pay is taxes, tho foolish to go wit hour insurance.

Lawyerliz said...

Without.

Lawyerliz said...

House up another couple hundred bucks.

Lawyerliz said...

Hub sez our computer is acting up. Browsers not working.

Mike said...

I have to say I have been debt free for about 15 years and it's great.

yeah..I have to agree...all things considered..debt free is the wtg if you can pull it off..

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Spend less. Then t
You can spend more😘

LBD said...

Government backed loans should be limited to two per person or couple. If you default on the first one then the second requires at least 20% down. If you step up to another with no default you must close out the first one. The limit on the government backing should be $250K. After that the training wheels are off and you obviously know what you are doing. IMO

Elizabeth Merceret said...

No Jeff am loans. No cash out refis.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Neg.

Mike said...

well..now you guys are taking all the fun out of home ownership!! ;<)

Rob Dawg said...

Wait... there's supposed to be fun? (Just finished upgrading the xeriscape and weeding the garden.)

LBD said...

The advantage of the hard winter months, no yard work. OOPs, forgot to shovel the snow!

Rob Dawg said...

Buy Monsanto stock. And Fiskars. And whoever makes trash bags. One week has the yard bin full even using the chipper. Almost too heavy to drag to the curb. Even odds that I kept up with the growth. And I haven't even touched the olive grove. Can't even schedule the new floor in Ba3.

Cinco-X said...

Plus low humidity and few bugs... The best part imo

Cinco-X said...

Two words: compost heap

Cinco-X said...

Now back to the Iron Fist

Rob Dawg said...

Two words: compost heap

Okay. I admit the place is a little dumpy but you caught us at a tough time for guests.

So many projects I don't know how 9-5 ers do it.

LBD said...

I thought everyone in Kali had a landscape co. doing the heavy lifting? I had a old Japanese guy mow my lawn back in my Kali days. ;)

Cinco-X said...

I think doing off this nutrients to the landfill is a waste. You should be able to put a compost heap behind the olive trees

Lawyerliz said...

Good morning.

Lawyerliz said...

At least one member of that right coalition is thinking of quitting and one has quit. Too bad mebbe they vote down the tax reform because the very rich didn't get enough benefits.

Lawyerliz said...

This is the time wasted as the Repubs kept voting down Ocare, when they didn't mean it. They are not just the party of no, they are the party of not even no. Is there anything they would have liked to pass in that time?

Lawyerliz said...

Wake up east coasters!

LBD said...

Good Morning From the mountains of central America! :)

The Dems are the party of No now. Who represents the people anymore? Two ways to go now, let it fail or repeal and don't replace it, see what happens then fix it.

Walt Tucker said...

I thought originally Repubs believed that replacing Obamacare with something cheaper would save money and that savings would be given mainly to the rich. But now a tax cut will have to be paid for some other way or not paid for at all.
The "give the wealthy more tax cuts" wing of the Republican Party won't like that either.

LBD said...

Zillow says my house is going up about a $100 a day now! I'm gonna retire some day! LOL!

Lawyerliz said...

Fla today says T takes aim at freedom cooalition.

LBD said...

The bill watered down may not have played well for the tax cuts. Losing the lobbyist support probably played a big part as well.

Walt Tucker said...

I spoke to an econ prof last night and he agrees. He added that Paul Ryan is in T's "cross hairs" too

Lawyerliz said...

Hi, Walt.

Hey lbd, That's 36.5 k per, year. In 10 or 15 years, you'll be ok.

Walt Tucker said...

Good morning, Liz and LBD.

Lawyerliz said...

Who is going to be left?

Lawyerliz said...

Welcome aboard!

Lawyerliz said...

Anybody notice Ryans lips? They are more and more pinched.

LBD said...

Good morning Walt nice to see you here.

Now we have two parties of No depending on who has possession of the cookie jar. The big disappointment continues, got popcorn?

Off to work at not having a job!

Rob Dawg said...

Hey Walt. Glad we saved you a chair. If I'm going to sleep in (6:00am is sleeping in?) then I am going to start scheduling an early auto post for you wrong coasters.

Sorry to hear everyone's Zillow price is languishing. The dawghaus has been +$500/day recently. Clearly their model is wonky.

Rob Dawg said...

I thought Ryan was only playing at be the reluctant Speaker. Seems he is serious and we need someone who really wants the job.

Lawyerliz said...

Every weed pulled is another 50$!!!

Lawyerliz said...

I doubt if he'll want it for long.

Rob Dawg said...

The media will grind down anyone who takes the job. And the threat of you will never work in this town again no longer applies. The fourth estate is out of control.

Lawyerliz said...

Agreed. They got Nixon ans that set the standard ever after. He prolly deserved it, n ut. . . .

Lawyerliz said...

Dyac. But . . .

Lawyerliz said...

I'd like to see them go for infrastructure next. We need it and it has an actual chance of passing. The conservatives won't like it, but the Dems will.

Cinco-X said...

DJIA opens down a slumdog...whussup wit dat?

Rob Dawg said...

Too far too fast.
Fed funds rate.
Weaker dollar.
Animal spirits.
Take your pick.

Rob Dawg said...

I shall guess $440 million for Oroville alone. This is that is not infrastructure. That is broken window.

Lawyerliz said...

Works the same.

Rob Dawg said...

$10 million in preventative action would leave $430m for real infrastructure rather than covering up California corruption.

Cinco-X said...

Not exactly the same if you're borrowing to repair

Lawyerliz said...

Oh well, maybe it would all be destroyed by an earthquake anyway.+