Friday, March 31, 2017

The Mystery of Real time GDP



Real economists and economic observers have been following this.  I will just add observations from a purely engineering/math perspective.

First the kindness.  at first it looks like the two metrics are irreconcilable.  Not as bad as it looks.  GDPNow from Atlanta is subject to wild swings being a snapshot.  The NY Fed evolves.  Trading sensitivity for integration is merely choice, not bad methodology.

Now the criticism.  There is no way both are correct.  There is no overlap even allowing for revisions.  Do you think come the release of the accepted GDP that one or both will admit to being wrong?

Worse, if one is lucky then we tend to dismiss the other.  We need a lot more data points. 

Personal note.  More weeding.  Pulled more invasive grass and discovered this patch of teacup roses and mixed ivy plants.


36 comments:

Lawyerliz said...

I can't say that I understand these.how do all

Mike said...

we're probably rolling along at 4-5% GDP growth up here..so there must be some serious lagging regions pulling that number down..

Mike said...

Taco shop up the street (part of a local chain) is advertising on their billboard.. "Help wanted...up to $15 per hour DOE"..

so yeah..the "DOE" thing might be a trick..but at least you know everyone who is working there now is making at least $15 per hour..

Lawyerliz said...

Yield down on 10 year.

Lawyerliz said...

Doc?

Lawyerliz said...

I mean doe?

Lawyerliz said...

Are the tacos more expensive?

Rob Dawg said...

Depending inexperience. Okay. Depending on experience. Same thing in the fast food service low skill industries.

Mike said...

I don't know..I don't eat that junk any more..

Mike said...

They are busy though..drive thru is always packed

Lawyerliz said...

Nice plants. Why are tacos unhealthy?

Mike said...

Seattle (city) is mostly $15 per hour min wage now...and it has spread to the burbs from what I can tell..

Mike said...

you can probably make them at home (and make them reasonably healthy)..but I don't do the fast food thing any more

Mike said...

I'm guessing a sign like that puts a lot of pressure on the other businesses in the area also that draw from the same labor pool...

Mike said...

just checked..one taco from this establishment..

260 calories
17g fat (28% dv)
35 mg cholesterol
460 mg sodium (35 % dv)

Rob Dawg said...

Tacos are part of a healthy diet. When I make tacos they are food pyramid things of beauty. Hamburger cheese sour cream. Fried dough and beans. The lettuce onions salsa tomato peppers are just for decoration.

Lawyerliz said...

Good.

Mike said...

yeah..if you make them at home you can control the ingredients...look at that sodium level though in the fast food ones...

Rob Dawg said...

I don't often even mention zero hedge but I've been talking about used vehicles for long enough that they put many of my concerns in one place:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-31/heres-why-used-car-prices-may-crash-50

Mike said...

just bought new tires and battery (replacing the originals) for my Camry in celebration of it's tenth birthday..33K miles..drives the same as it did when I first bought it..


hoping to get another ten years out of it..figuring we'll all be ordering rides thru our smartphones by that point

Mike said...

the gf..on the other hand..has a lease on a Rav 4 expiring in Sept..residual is almost as high as the original list price..they'll be getting that one back..

Lawyerliz said...

Well that's because it's still a baby. At that rate it should last 25 or 35 years!

Mike said...

ha ha..reminds me of the classic "Onion" goof..

Saying it was simply time for drivers to move on, Toyota Motor Corp. issued a recall of its entire 1993 Camry model line Wednesday due to the fact that its owners really should have bought something new by now. “We understand that the 1993 Camry was tremendously dependable, but, honestly, there’s just no excuse for driving a 22-year-old car at this point,

http://www.theonion.com/article/toyota-recalls-1993-camry-due-fact-owners-really-s-50480

Rob Dawg said...

The mighty Volvo got new shoes Monday. Could have escaped for just a couple Franklins but went upscale and got the Yokohamas for $310 for the pair. At 150k miles the V70 is beginning to feel broken in.

Rob Dawg said...

A race between resale prices and lease expiration and luck.

Lawyerliz said...

Grin.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Nobody home. Sigh.

LBD said...

Tacos! Anyway you get them I like em. :)

Cinco-X said...

Those dv's are bogus. Fats should make up about 40% of your daily calories, and unless you have a specific heart condition, sodium just didn't matter. If you're worried, just chase that taco with a banana and you'll be fine

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Go Cinco!

Cinco-X said...

Ummm... Where an I going?

Cinco-X said...

Am... Jeez

Cinco-X said...

http://www.businessinsider.com/deep-subprime-auto-loan-rates-worrying-wall-street-2017-3

Rob Dawg said...

Nobody ever accused me of being late to acworry circle. 😎

Elizabeth Merceret said...

I really have to stop reading about and rejoicing over T's numerous gaffes. It is not good for my mental health.
I still think he's crazy.

Cinco-X said...

http://www.businessinsider.com/white-house-financial-disclosures-ivanka-trump-jared-kushner-steve-bannon-sean-spicer-2017-3/#steve-bannon-1

Hilarious... Trump has a cabinet full of billionaires, and someone thinks it's news that there are substantial assets amongst the Trump administration