Housing Bubble, credit bubble, public planning, land use, zoning and transportation in the exurban environment. Specific criticism of smart growth, neotradtional, forms based, new urbanism and other top down planner schemes to increase urban extent and density. Ventura County, California specific examples.
Monday, March 13, 2017
SoCal Home Prices
Back in 2006 we noted that VenCo prices briefly spiked above Orange prices. That hasn't happened this time but more because Orange County is just running away price wise.
Those San Bernardino prices are worrisome. With gas prices falling a bit they've bought some time but when the prices goes back up and the commute gets longer...
WASH reports that credit bureaus are taking off tax lien and judgement information unless they include a lot of info which often isn't on the liens and judgment, nor required to be. Certain people will see their credit scores go up 20-40 points, which might be enough to qualify for credit. This info s available, but it takes effort on the lenders part to get it..
If our name is Jose Rodriguez in Miami Dade county,this will avoid mistakes I guess. One of the possible items is ss#. As a public record???
I 've never been thrilled with credit scores, by this seems bizarre to me.
So many years of eggshells and insults this is better.
Another OT. I took a how educated are you? quiz for fun. I did okay. Be sure you had Shakespere. I had direct Hamlet exposure most recently in the 6th grade and it showed in the results. Worth an inordinate number of questions.
QUIZ: Can We Guess Your Education Level ? Quiz Education I got 61 of 70 right Wow! You've got an intellect equivalent to a full fledged PhD !
I post this for fun. I enjoyed the wide range of questions.
Just heard that LLCs, Partnerships, and S-Corps have to have their tax returns filed by the 15th of MARCH this year. So if you have one of those, you'll need to file for an extension. Another curve ball from the IRS, thankyouverymuch.
Actually makes sense, since the people that own stock in them, and therefore have to pay the taxes, need information from them to file their own taxes... I'm always stick waiting for my former employer to get they're taxes done so that I can do mine
If there were the BoSox couldn't charge $68 for crap seats.
Mixing up a batch of orange, pomegranate and Tito's vodka cocktails to sip on the porch to watch the sunset cross from the east of Ssk-ville to the west of Echo Beach while the last bits of snow lose their grip on the peaks laser sharp visible 25 miles to the north. The oranges and pomegranates are fresh from the garden. Don't hate me because of April 1st, 1983 Worcester, Massachusetts weather. I mean here it comes again.
And if you live there, you can't afford to move away if you ever expect to get back into the market
This is the hardest thing. I know so many who came, went and then spent the rest of their lives denying wanting to come back. I cannot be honest or flippant or gratuitous. There is no way for those who stay to address the issue with those who convinced themselves it was just a temporary move.
I understand the sentiment [and laughed] but think about the way that plays out. Arrogant cash rich individuals and connected to capital corps would be the only customers. You want them setting the price?
Hey, I have a 17yo sweetie who is dedicated to getting through a fancy cocktail book before college. It is a tough job but... etc. ;)
I have the older kids in and out with the usual complications of family and dinners and trading cars and who sleeps where.
The fog was strong this morning. At the Marriot this weekend it was in/out but mostly very sunny. This morning The Las Posas Valley was reduced speeds foggy.
median household income of LA county ($55K)..so let's guesstimate the 25th percentile is at $80K. 28% of that would be $1,866 per month..figure $350 for taxes/insurance and your down to about $1,500 available for p&i.
1,500 per month at 4.5% for 30 years..loanable amount about $300K.
looking back at Rob's chart..median sales price for LA county in January was $525K..."loanable amount" to 25th percentile household @ 6%..about $250K...
Hub gave a presentation on his stagecraft course. He totally blew his fellow students away. It Kinda wasn't fair. Of course he spent 5x the tie on it that they did, I would guess. Sometimes you learn something in the 54 years after 20.
one of my favorite features of the LA Times is when they report on "celebrity" real estate transactions. It always amazes me to see these B & C level actors (people you've never heard of before) buying and selling multi-million dollar homes in the Hollywood Hills and such. (Rappers also)
Do actors really get paid that much?? Given the very erratic incomes of actors..I wonder who is financing these transactions??
let's say you're a supporting actor/actress on a network series that has been renewed for a second/third year..how much do you think they make?? certainly can't be mid-six figures (which is what you would need traditionally to qualify for a $3-$4 million home)..
There just seems to be a disconnect between income and real estate values down in SoCal..
the other interesting one is rappers (if that is still what they are called)..where do they get the money for multi-million dollar estates. Is the music business really that lucrative these days??
Cripes. I barely understand transit math and now I am expected to understand entertainment math? I refer all here to the infamous Mr Rogers interview of a bass musician.
77 comments:
First
Lord have mercy. Nobody can afford to live there.
5 x income which is way touch, is 120k $. Who makes that?
those prices are denominated in "Kallesos" right??
nice first Elizabeth!!
Those San Bernardino prices are worrisome. With gas prices falling a bit they've bought some time but when the prices goes back up and the commute gets longer...
5 x income which is way touch, is 120k $. Who makes that?
Secretaries at Amgen.
Kaliexico, where the hot/cold housing burrito comes wrapped in a golden ticket.
Texans getting ripped off by sticking with Dollar/Kallesos parity..
Take the money and run. I hear Texas is nice! ;)
Chinese forbidding much money to leave having no effect?
Chinese forbidding much money to leave having no effect?
The Chinese effect might explain a bit of OC & LA counties. VenCo and IE don't share the same attraction.
Zillow may have gotten the recent sale price wrong..but check out the price history on 5230 Appleton St Riverside, CA
something seriously awry there..
OT for Cinco. Will probably be a top post some evening:
http://i.imgur.com/bzeiYdA.png
Fat finger recording no doubt.
5230 Appleton St Riverside, CA
Hey, backs up against busy railroad tracks. Winning.
WASH reports that credit bureaus are taking off tax lien and judgement information unless they include a lot of info which often isn't on the liens and judgment, nor required to be. Certain people will see their credit scores go up 20-40 points, which might be enough to qualify for credit. This info s available, but it takes effort on the lenders part to get it..
If our name is Jose Rodriguez in Miami Dade county,this will avoid mistakes I guess. One of the possible items is ss#. As a public record???
I 've never been thrilled with credit scores, by this seems bizarre to me.
That's Wall Street Journal. Damn spell check.
Fat finger recording
Redfin has it selling at the more reasonable $300K..yup fat finger
sorry..300,000 Kallesos
Apparently a very fiduciary rule has been decreed, but is not in effect yet.
And the Fed is seeking to fine a couple of individual Morgan Chase brokers for favoring Chinese brokers. A species of bribery. 😐
Not brokers, princelings
Damn! This is Liz's blog. Nice comments and firstness.
Thank you 😍
So many years of eggshells and insults this is better.
Another OT. I took a how educated are you? quiz for fun. I did okay. Be sure you had Shakespere. I had direct Hamlet exposure most recently in the 6th grade and it showed in the results. Worth an inordinate number of questions.
QUIZ: Can We Guess Your Education Level ?
Quiz Education I got 61 of 70 right
Wow! You've got an intellect equivalent to a full fledged PhD !
I post this for fun. I enjoyed the wide range of questions.
Another try. The link did not post.
http://cyber-breeze.com/quiz-can-guess-education-level/
I just look at Zillow and my house went up over $1K from last week! I am gonna be Rich! LOL!
Hey no responses?
Yay.
Just heard that LLCs, Partnerships, and S-Corps have to have their tax returns filed by the 15th of MARCH this year. So if you have one of those, you'll need to file for an extension. Another curve ball from the IRS, thankyouverymuch.
You've got an intellect equivalent to a full fledged PhD
i.e. incapable of functioning in the real world... lol
just kidding Rob.. ;<)
just kidding Rob.. ;<)
Three things...
You weren't kidding.
You aren't wrong.
I don't disagree.
the joke would have been written better as..
"they said you are incapable of functioning in the real world Rob?? I'd be insulted!!"
Ten year. 2.62
And if you live there, you can't afford to move away if you ever expect to get back into the market
Yup... There be dragons here.... It'll be the ice dragon tomorrow
Actually makes sense, since the people that own stock in them, and therefore have to pay the taxes, need information from them to file their own taxes... I'm always stick waiting for my former employer to get they're taxes done so that I can do mine
http://dilbert.com/strip/2017-03-13
Ten year. 2.62
checks deposit rates for a bump...nope
"incapable of functioning in the real world."
I wasn't aware there is a real world. Reality what a concept, Robin Williams RIP.
Brewers v Mariners..22-1..in the fifth inning!!
Too bad there's no mercy rule in pro baseball..
Too bad there's no mercy rule in pro baseball..
If there were the BoSox couldn't charge $68 for crap seats.
Mixing up a batch of orange, pomegranate and Tito's vodka cocktails to sip on the porch to watch the sunset cross from the east of Ssk-ville to the west of Echo Beach while the last bits of snow lose their grip on the peaks laser sharp visible 25 miles to the north. The oranges and pomegranates are fresh from the garden. Don't hate me because of April 1st, 1983 Worcester, Massachusetts weather. I mean here it comes again.
And if you live there, you can't afford to move away if you ever expect to get back into the market
This is the hardest thing. I know so many who came, went and then spent the rest of their lives denying wanting to come back. I cannot be honest or flippant or gratuitous. There is no way for those who stay to address the issue with those who convinced themselves it was just a temporary move.
set the conforming limit at $250K and Kali gets affordable real quick..
Ten year. 2.62
A tiger on a loose leash is more dangerous than one on a tigh leash.
OT. I am still full from Saturday Filet Mignon and Sunday morning Pesto Parm Mushroom omelet.
I understand the sentiment [and laughed] but think about the way that plays out. Arrogant cash rich individuals and connected to capital corps would be the only customers. You want them setting the price?
Aren't you a bit early to be watching the sunset, Robert?
But at least you're there. I'm back in the Great Sewer, and fogged in to boot. I guess the fog means that Spring is coming, though.
Got the results my annual check-up this morning. The doctor prescribed a Corvette ;-)
I think unreasonably high conforming limits (+ridiculously low rates) has blown another bubble...hope I turn out to be wrong..
Hey, I have a 17yo sweetie who is dedicated to getting through a fancy cocktail book before college. It is a tough job but... etc. ;)
I have the older kids in and out with the usual complications of family and dinners and trading cars and who sleeps where.
The fog was strong this morning. At the Marriot this weekend it was in/out but mostly very sunny. This morning The Las Posas Valley was reduced speeds foggy.
22? 22??
Sheesh.
Maybe.
median household income of LA county ($55K)..so let's guesstimate the 25th percentile is at $80K. 28% of that would be $1,866 per month..figure $350 for taxes/insurance and your down to about $1,500 available for p&i.
1,500 per month at 4.5% for 30 years..loanable amount about $300K.
Increase it to 6%...goes down to $250K...oh oh
Will people with very low rates ever be able to move up, when the rates are at 6%?
Which is actually a low rate.10% and able is a high rate and remember, there is no normal. At 5.5%, you've lost about half your money.
And higher rates means the deficit gets bigger fast.
And a whole lot of people lose an incredible amount of money
. Nobody would be able to buy or sell. Deadlock.
Yep. You'd have to have a ginormous down payment. Some who had sold at a very high price might have that.
looking back at Rob's chart..median sales price for LA county in January was $525K..."loanable amount" to 25th percentile household @ 6%..about $250K...
Hub gave a presentation on his stagecraft course. He totally blew his fellow students away. It Kinda wasn't fair. Of course he spent 5x the tie on it that they did, I would guess. Sometimes you learn something in the 54 years after 20.
I had a loan at 13%. And one at 9%. My first Miami house was 7%, and it didn't go back to that for over 30 years. There is no normal.
one of my favorite features of the LA Times is when they report on "celebrity" real estate transactions. It always amazes me to see these B & C level actors (people you've never heard of before) buying and selling multi-million dollar homes in the Hollywood Hills and such. (Rappers also)
Do actors really get paid that much?? Given the very erratic incomes of actors..I wonder who is financing these transactions??
I think they think you have to put on a sort of life show. One good year to qualify and then struggle.
Exactamundo. Score big. Live big.
let's say you're a supporting actor/actress on a network series that has been renewed for a second/third year..how much do you think they make?? certainly can't be mid-six figures (which is what you would need traditionally to qualify for a $3-$4 million home)..
There just seems to be a disconnect between income and real estate values down in SoCal..
also..jumbo loans require 20% down payment...doubtful many 20-something actors/actresses have half a million in cash lying around..
Yeah, well, who finances this stuff?
I guess they could be married to Producers (or other studio execs)..only thing that makes sense to me..
the other interesting one is rappers (if that is still what they are called)..where do they get the money for multi-million dollar estates. Is the music business really that lucrative these days??
Cripes. I barely understand transit math and now I am expected to understand entertainment math? I refer all here to the infamous Mr Rogers interview of a bass musician.
12 hours later..and we're still on topic!! (SoCal Home Prices)
hahahahaha
infamous Mr Rogers interview of a bass musician.
"I'll buy the g**d*** stamps!!" lol
I thought most Rappers usually started out as unauthorized pharmaceutical salesman? That's where the money comes from.
That's where the money comes from.
that must be an interesting escrow closing..when they dump bags of cash on the table..
Shocked. Shocked I tell you that Mike of all people would know what I was talking about and remember the punchline verbatim. 🤥🤧🙄🤕💩🙀😻
I actually went out to YouTube and searched for it (hadn't heard it before)...hilarious
Some who have visited the dawghaus will recognize the tall one in the center.
http://venturabreeze.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/youth-debutants.jpg
I heard this is m not as lucrate at the street level as one would think.
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