Monday, May 28, 2007
I admit to being somewhat of a Macophile. I'm not blinded, just predisposed toward liking the products and the company. I'm not alone. The "likers" are a subset of the "followers" and it apears there are a lot of followers reading EN. Reader Huck Finn says:
I work in finance as an investment analyst. People love technology and always look and hope for strong returns in the tech sectors. The 90s were awesome; when the tech bubble burst, it really hurt.
As the old saying goes, however, time heals all wounds. Since equities have done so well over the last few years, people are starting to forget the pain of '00 (and '02). There are a lot of people waiting for that big tech rally.
It may happen at some point, but I personally don't think tech is a long-term winner. There may be phenomenal gains for companies like Google and Apple, but the thing about tech: people always want more product/features at a lower cost.
For every Apple and Google of the tech world, there are thousands of dot.com companies that didn't make it.
People hate my anti-tech bias. And, really, I guess I can't blame them. I just love dividends and strong cash flows.
More product and more features is an expense that cuts into profits eventually. The more you offer and the less you charge for it, the higher your sales numbers. Trouble is, it cuts into profits.
Apple is enjoying its (near-)monopolistic state of iPod, but they're going to have to keep rolling out new products that people will upgrade to (iPhone) or they will have to cut costs to attract new buyers.
What happens if/when their new products no longer look like they're worth throwing another $500 toward? How often will people get rid of their new-last-year iPods for the new-this-year-but-spendy versions?
- they have strong brand loyalty, their product line is innovative, they have strong cash flows, etc...
So Apple is probably a bad example in the near term, but it's still part of the technology sector...which makes me nervous.
People may make be making money hand over fist on Apple right now, but I'm not one of them.
I'm a contrarian - and am always very early on my technology bets.
Fair statements all. Remember also the codiclies about the differences twixt good companies and good stocks. Throw in the recent Caseylike behavior of so many companies including AAPL regards options and buying sprees, etc. and there's a lot to discuss. I've purposely not said my piece, I'll save it for the comments as my opinions are not worth anymore than anyone elses' and thus I won't abuse my position other than to say the iPhone as Apple's second most interesting product could be the ultimate under the radar technology innovation of the decade rivaling wi-fi.